MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[The Other Castro]

Here's the DCCC talking points for the race:

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[The Other Castro]

Also, immediately before this election on Thursday, we'll have:

1. A new CBO score early in the week showing likely over 24 million more uninsured
2. A Comey hearing on Wednesday potentially implicating Trump on obstruction of justice
3. Whatever other bombshells come out between now and then.

[The Other Castro]

"One source familiar with polling of the race, in fact, says his lead is as small as five points.

'Quist has done a good job feeding an image as a Montana outsider, contrasted with the Jersey billionaire who wants to sell off public lands,' said one national Republican strategist, who requested anonymity to speak candidly about party strategy."

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/nation-world/national/article151135317.html

[The Other Castro]

Just two weeks ago, PredictIt prices for this race were Gianforte leading Quist 92-8 in odds. Right now, Gianforte's lead is down to just 65-38.

[The Other Castro]

Quist announced that his campaign has raised a total of more than $5 Million.

[The Other Castro]

Rob Quist can do this!

In reality, Gianforte will defeat this Socialist by Association by at least 6%.

I voted for Bernie in the primary. Am I a socialist?

Also, this is strange:

Josh Kraushaar @HotlineJosh
Sr GOP operative, tracking the two specials, notably more concerned about MONTANA than GEORGIA.

https://twitter.com/hotlinejosh/status/865262696522014720

[The Other Castro]

Some Nate Cohn thoughts on this:

Nate Cohn‏ @Nate_Cohn
If the GOP is actually (I don't buy it) more concerned about MT than GA, that says much more about how bad it must be in MT than GA.

Nate Cohn‏ @Nate_Cohn
We know *a lot* about this GA race. At best for GOP it's a true toss up. So if they're more worried about MT...

[The Other Castro]

Confirmed on their Twitter, Gravis WILL be releasing another poll before election day, they suggest it's likely to show the race tightening even further, perhaps even with Quist ahead.

They don't sound like they've started it yet, so that's just a prediction from them.

Gravis Marketing‏ @GravisMarketing
Actually we are going to try and release another one.  the guess is it's tightened

[The Other Castro]

Rob Quist @RobQuistforMT

**UPDATE** Saturday's Billings rally with @BernieSanders has moved to MetraPark, due to overwhelming excitement for Rob! #BigSkyBern

[The Other Castro]

House Majority Pac (D) is making a last minute $25K TV ad buy for Montana. Probably just so they don't get accused of not doing more. The DCCC before this had only spent $28K, while outside Republicans have put in more than $4 million.

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/05/18/montana-special-election-dem-super-pac-ads-238576

[The Other Castro]

Sanders adviser says 4000 people are at the Quist/Sanders Missoula rally:



https://twitter.com/AriRabinHavt/status/865988723720286208

[The Other Castro]

Some guy on the PredictIt page for the race just posted what he claims are "Early vote projections" with Quist at 52.6% and Gianforte at 47.4% Don't know how legit it is, he' s probably just pumping.

1st rule of PredictIt: Never read the comments. Trust me.

[The Other Castro]

I don't know why, but my gut tells me Quist pulls it out in a squeaker.  And I'm usually a pessimist.

If Quist were to win, after all of his problems and lack of outside support, it could send a major shock to Congressional Republicans and push them further against Trump.

[The Other Castro]

Wasn't that Reuters? Which were subsamples of their national polls.

Nah, Google. Check the link:

National Topline
Clinton: 36
Trump: 35
Johnson: 8
Undecided: 31

Montana
Clinton: 33
Trump: 29

Now all we need is ARG and Zogby to poll this race...

Don't forget Overtime Politics, may they rest in peace.

Oh God, let's please never mention them again.

[The Other Castro]

Early Voting has exceeded 2014 levels. Info from DDHQ as of last night:

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https://decisiondeskhq.com/upcoming-races/early-voting-in-mtal-exceeds-2014/

[The Other Castro]

DDHQ predicts an overall turnout of 58% (~407154 votes).

https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/866724796561620992

[The Other Castro]

Big: GOP polling has the race in MOE.

Alex Isenstadt @politicoalex
NEW: Fresh GOP polling has party's lead in Montana special election down to 2-4 pts. TIGHT, with Gianforte expected to get less than 50%

https://twitter.com/politicoalex/status/866727861834702849

[The Other Castro]

Might be an expectations setter, might not. Remember that KS-4 GOP poll that supposedly had Estes up only one point?

[The Other Castro]

I'll guess Gravis has G+5.

[The Other Castro]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/653200?unlock=SOV8HJ4QZYZGD2I1

[The Other Castro]

Gabriel Debenedetti‏ @gdebenedetti  
Some R operatives breathing small sighs of relief that Comey won't testify Wed, just before MT votes: may not've hurt, def wouldn't help.

Josh Barro @jbarro
Josh Barro Retweeted Gabriel Debenedetti
Leaves the newscycle unobstructed for the CBO score saying what the AHCA will do to healthcare

Ben Jacobs‏ @Bencjacobs
Ben Jacobs Retweeted Josh Barro
Which is a much bigger deal in Montana

[The Other Castro]

To be fair, they said in response to a tweet that they would "hopefully" have it out at the stated time. That's by no means a promise, and they probably aren't even aware that many people are carefully watching for the exact timing of its update.

[The Other Castro]

Lol

[The Other Castro]

Bullock approval: 40-34 (+6)
Tester approval: 36-40 (-4)
Trump approval: 50-42 (+8)

Gianforte - 49%
Quist - 35%
Wicks - 8%
Undecided - 9%

Democrat - 26%
Republican - 37%
Independent/Other - 37%

[The Other Castro]

>Congressional races are hard to poll

Some teenager in his basement I swear to god.

I thought you were joking, but they legit said this.

Gravis Marketing‏ @GravisMarketing  8m8 minutes ago
Rest of poll. It looks to us the libertarian is hurting the Dem with young voters and Indy.  congressional races are typically hard to Poll