MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[The Other Castro]

This is my submission for Worst Pollster of the Year award, if we do one of those threads at the end of 2017.

[The Other Castro]

Wtffffffffffffffffff

[The Other Castro]

Seems to support the theory that they just made these numbers up.

[The Other Castro]

Honestly, averaging this with Gravis might get us pretty close to the end result.

Quist (54%+35%)/2 = 44.5%
Gianforte (39%+49%)/2 = 44%
Wicks (7%+8%)/2 = 7.5%

If you bring Wicks down to a more realistic 4.5% and distribute the remaining amount evenly:

Quist - 48%
Gianforte - 47.5%
Wicks - 4.5%

[The Other Castro]

Senate Majority Pac (D) has increased its last minute ad buy from $25K to $150K for the final days leading up to the voting, including broadcast and digital media.

[The Other Castro]

Pence recorded a robocall for Gianforte.

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http://www.politico.com/story/2017/05/23/pence-montana-special-election-238743

[The Other Castro]

Article on Lake County's predicting power:

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/single-county-watch-montanas-special-election/story?id=47570773

[The Other Castro]

I take a short nap and miss everything. This is ridiculous.

[The Other Castro]

Anderson Cooper is talking to Alexis Levinson about it right now.

[The Other Castro]

Here is the audio

HOLY

[The Other Castro]

What % of votes have been returned? I know its more than 2014 but less than 2016.

I had heard something like 50% vote absentee, and 70% of absentee voters had returned their ballots.

[The Other Castro]

MSNBC is playing the audio right now.

[The Other Castro]

Ben Jacobs says he's at the hospital, getting his elbow X-rayed.

[The Other Castro]

Wow...

[The Other Castro]

Kyle Kondik‏ @kkondik
Kyle Kondik Retweeted Brian Rosenwald
Probably two-thirds of total vote or so is already cast

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/867529076201967616

[The Other Castro]

Nice recruiting job, NRCC!

[The Other Castro]

[The Other Castro]

[The Other Castro]

"Missoulian rescinds Gianforte endorsement"

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http://missoulian.com/opinion/editorial/missoulian-rescinds-gianforte-endorsement/article_ab947a9d-9220-5dc5-9193-f1ae9ef03c60.html?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=user-share

[The Other Castro]

DCCC ad ready to go for tomorrow. Simple, but effective.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1ZK1s7gNxI&feature=youtu.be

[The Other Castro]

I'm not sure how Jeff Roe could possibly know this, but he says:

Jeff Roe‏ @jeffroe  18m18 minutes ago
#MTAL 65% of votes are in and it looks to be about 50%'ish @RobQuistforMT 40%'ish @GregForMontana and 10% indie or no vote history to tell.

Jeff Roe‏ @jeffroe  13m13 minutes ago
#MTAL means roughly @GregForMontana needs to get around 58% of Election Day vote to win. Assuming 400K total votes. 259K are already cast.

Jeff Roe‏ @jeffroe  12m12 minutes ago
#MTAL roughly 8,801 or 6.3% of Election Day voters have to flip (no pun) to Quist. Not vote indie or just not vote but vote Quist.

Jeff Roe‏ @jeffroe  3m3 minutes ago
#MTAL in other words 17,601 @GregForMontana voters need to NOT go vote in order to elect @RobQuistforMT

[The Other Castro]

notice me senpai!

[The Other Castro]

My big question, what was the size of the early vote lead for Quist or Gianaforte? It seems both sides assumed Quist was doing very well in the early voting. Why do we think Gianaforte wins? He may still, but the reports I'm hearing are conflicting.

Because people don't really know that much but think they know everything.

[The Other Castro]

2016 results for Clinton/Trump and Gianforte/Bullock by county and precinct.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1KOoM0pSyER-F-yDhSw6FdxS30RlFpWeviIbaa5IrVJc/edit#gid=722392603

[The Other Castro]

So apparently Steve Bullock will be attending Quist's election night party in Missoula tonight. Gianforte campaign isn't answering any questions today, so not sure whether there will be any special guests in Bozeman.

Also, turnout in Missoula seems to be good, so I don't think Democrats need to worry about this.

Corin Cates-Carney‏ @clccarney  30m30 minutes ago
We're about 2 hrs away from polls closing in #mtal and no confirmation if Gianforte will show up to his own election watch party.