GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[The Other Castro]

Obvious mound of salt, but:

Ryan Grim @ryangrim
Outside House GOP group tells me their internal poll over the weekend has Handel down 9 to Ossoff. That'd be the biggest gap so far. #GA06

https://twitter.com/ryangrim/status/874777448025600000

[The Other Castro]

Obvious mound of salt, but:

Ryan Grim @ryangrim
Outside House GOP group tells me their internal poll over the weekend has Handel down 9 to Ossoff. That'd be the biggest gap so far. #GA06

https://twitter.com/ryangrim/status/874777448025600000

Is it again their strategy of lowering expectations?

If this is meant to lower expectations, it's to prepare for a small Handel loss.

[The Other Castro]

They're sending me to Georgia tomorrow until the election, this should be interesting.

[The Other Castro]

FWIW, that poll also has Ossoff winning the early vote 56-44.

[The Other Castro]

It's not clear whether Cobb's under-performance so far in EV will translate to a lower portion of the vote total once the election day vote is in.

[The Other Castro]

Some last minute money:

-$27,000 to Handel from the DeVos family
-$185,000 for Handel from America First Policies
-$174,000 for Ossoff from House Majority Pac

[The Other Castro]

For anyone from GA-06 or near by what's the story on Fulton? It seems to be the purple district with the most % so what is the word on the street of how this is looking compared to April

Nate Cohn suggested that, based on the early vote in Fulton, Ossoff would have a tiny edge if the turnout patterns were similar elsewhere and voters broke the same way as in round 1.

[The Other Castro]

Summary of polls from last week (using most recent poll from each pollster):

6/15: Landmark: Ossoff +2 (50-48), Early Vote: Ossoff +8 (54-46)
6/14-6/15: Opinion Savvy: Ossoff +1 (50-49), Early Vote: Ossoff +16 (58-42)
6/10-6/13: Trafalgar Group: Ossoff +3 (50-47), Early Vote: Ossoff +12 (56-44)
6/7-6/11: SurveyUSA: Tie (47-47), Early Vote: Ossoff +19 (57-38)

Average Lead: Ossoff +1.5 (49.25-47.75)
Average Early Vote Lead: Ossoff +13.75 (56.25-42.5)

[The Other Castro]

There is no way that EV number in the Trafalgar poll is correct.

[The Other Castro]

This race was always going to end super tight. This polling isn't a surprise.

[The Other Castro]

Likeliest EV range to me appears to be 54-58%.

[The Other Castro]

Doing some rough calculations, and assuming a total vote turnout of ~240K (with 58.5% EV), I think Ossoff would need at least the following ED totals for each EV performance level to reach 50%:

54% EV needs 44.4% ED
55% EV needs 42.9% ED
56% EV needs 41.5% ED
57% EV needs 40.1% ED
58% EV needs 38.7% ED

Assuming a uniform decrease in Ossoff EV strength for each county (and taking into account the shift in proportion of EV by county from round 1 to round 2), these may be the benchmarks Ossoff needs to hit for each county's EV per potential overall EV level:

54% EV: DeKalb - Ossoff 63.3%, Fulton - Ossoff 52%, Cobb - Ossoff 49%
55% EV: DeKalb - Ossoff 64.3%, Fulton - Ossoff 53%, Cobb - Ossoff 50%
56% EV: DeKalb - Ossoff 65.3%, Fulton - Ossoff 54%, Cobb - Ossoff 51%
57% EV: DeKalb - Ossoff 66.3%, Fulton - Ossoff 55%, Cobb - Ossoff 52%
58% EV: DeKalb - Ossoff 67.3%, Fulton - Ossoff 56%, Cobb - Ossoff 53%

42.9% of the EV, as Adam mentioned earlier, definitely seems doable. For that to be enough, he'll likely need at least 55% of the EV. This places Cobb as a pretty good rough benchmark for whether Ossoff has a fighting chance for 50% overall. If he is below 50% in the Cobb early vote and you extrapolate the rest of the EV from that, he would therefore require over 43% of the ED vote. Therefore, for each 1% point he is under 50% in Cobb's EV, that's about another 1.4% points he needs to be above 43% for the ED vote.

*Disclaimer: My math may be wrong as I am running under not a lot of sleep at the moment.