Neil Gorsuch Confirmation Process Discussion (confirmed 54-45)

[The Other Castro]

Manu Raju‏ @mkraju  2m2 minutes ago
Sen. Michael Bennet, who introduced Gorsuch this week, tells me he's "undecided" on how he'll vote

[The Other Castro]

I'm sure the Senate will take your concerns into consideration.

[The Other Castro]

Sanders is a No (in case that was a surprise to anyone).

[The Other Castro]

Manchin says he is still undecided on Gorsuch.

[The Other Castro]

Schumer says he has enough Democrats to prevent 60 votes on Gorsuch (meaning fewer than 8 Democratic defections). However, Politico's count has 13 Democrats that are either undecided or have not announced their intentions:

Tim Kaine (Up for reelection in 2018)
Joe Manchin (Trump state, up for reelection in 2018)
Jon Tester (Trump state, up for reelection in 2018)
Michael Bennett
Amy Klobuchar (Trump state, up for reelection in 2018)
Angus King (Up for reelection in 2018)
Claire McCaskill (Trump state, up for reelection in 2018)
Mark Warner
Chris Coons
Maggie Hassan
Joe Donnelly (Trump state, up for reelection in 2018)
Bill Nelson (Trump state, up for reelection in 2018)
Heidi Heitkamp (Trump state, up for reelection in 2018)

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/03/gorsuch-democrats-supreme-court-236384

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2017/3/24/1647085/-Schumer-says-he-has-votes-to-filibuster-Gorsuch-but-at-least-13-Dem-senators-remain-on-the-fence

[The Other Castro]

Bill Nelson says he will vote NO on Gorsuch, for cloture and confirmation.

Burgess Everett‏ @burgessev
Oh boy: @SenBillNelson "will vote no on the motion to invoke cloture and, if that succeeds, I will vote no on his confirmation" on Gorsuch

Meanwhile, Pat Leahy says he will vote NO on Gorsuch for confirmation, but is Undecided on cloture.

Sen. Patrick Leahy‏ @SenatorLeahy  2h2 hours ago
I am never inclined to filibuster a SCOTUS nom. But I need to see how Judge Gorsuch answers my written Qs, under oath, before deciding.

[The Other Castro]

[The Other Castro]

Jesse Rodriguez‏ @JesseRodriguez  2m2 minutes ago
Sen Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND) to vote YES on Gorsuch

[The Other Castro]

Claire McCaskill says she will oppose Gorsuch and support the filibuster.

[The Other Castro]

So that's 35 Democrats supporting a filibuster, and 2 against. That leaves 11 Undecided/Unknown on cloture, 6 of whom would be needed to get to 60 votes. These 11 (including King) are:

Michael Bennet (CO)
Sherrod Brown (OH)
Benjamin Cardin (MD)
Christopher Coons (DE)
Joe Donnelly (IN)
Dianne Feinstein (CA)
Angus King (ME)
Patrick Leahy (VT)
Robert Menendez (NJ)
Jon Tester (MT)
Mark Warner (VA)

Path of least resistance here is probably King, Tester, Donnelly, Warner, Bennet, and a wildcard (Feintstein, Leahy, no idea).

My prediction is that King, Donnelly, and Bennet also vote for cloture, with an overall vote of 57-43.

[The Other Castro]

So that's 35 Democrats supporting a filibuster, and 2 against. That leaves 11 Undecided/Unknown on cloture, 6 of whom would be needed to get to 60 votes. These 11 (including King) are:

Michael Bennet (CO)
Sherrod Brown (OH)
Benjamin Cardin (MD)
Christopher Coons (DE)
Joe Donnelly (IN)
Dianne Feinstein (CA)
Angus King (ME)
Patrick Leahy (VT)
Claire McCaskill (MO)
Robert Menendez (NJ)
Jon Tester (MT)
Mark Warner (VA)

Path of least resistance here is probably King, Tester, Donnelly, Warner, Bennet, and a wildcard (Feintstein, Leahy, no idea).

My prediction is that King, Donnelly, and Bennet also vote for cloture, with an overall vote of 57-43.

Err...Brown was one of the first to call for a filibuster of Gorsuch and McCaskill is on record as supporting one.

Oh yeah I made the post after saying McCaskill was a NO, but forgot to take out her name from the list I copied. Has Brown specifically called for a fillibuster? He's still on undecided list at The Washington Post.

[The Other Castro]

Coons says he will oppose Gorsuch, on nomination and cloture. That's 41, bring out the nukes.

[The Other Castro]

[The Other Castro]

Question for you guys:  The filibuster for SC nominations is now obviously going to die - will Repubs move for the filibuster to be dead for all legislation too, though?  Your best educated guesses?

No way. Legislative filibusters aren't going anywhere.

[The Other Castro]

You mean 2024😊

It's been a long time since we had a 1-termer, so I'd say we are overdue at this point. Not that it is ever sure to happen, but if Trump doesn't pull himself together and get back on the ride side of public opinion, he could be ousted in 2020, possibly in spectacular fashion.

Have we ever had four two-term Presidents in a row before? I don't think so but I may be wrong.

[The Other Castro]

Angus King is a NO on Gorsuch for nomination and cloture. Every Senator now accounted for in terms of how they will vote on cloture.

[The Other Castro]

Simple majority now needed for all nominations going forward.

[The Other Castro]

Re-vote on cloture under the new rules passes, 55-45. Gorsuch now free to be confirmed tomorrow.

[The Other Castro]

Senators now get 30 hours to bash each other.