It's interesting to see how close many of their Projected Vote Share estimates are to simple polling averages: the difference in Louisiana is 0.1%, in Michigan it's 0.3%, in North Carolina it is also 0.1%.
If this is the case, what value does State Fundamentals really provide?
Their primary function is in races where there hasn't been much polling, and for when election day is far away.
Wouldn't the value of those farther out projections then be judged by how accurate they tend to be? For some reason we only ever get analyses of how well the final projections modeled the races' outcomes, but shouldn't we be able to, say, back that all up by a couple of months and see if Nate Silver's early September projections are any better than Sam Wang's?
