Nate Silver on 12/10: 20% chance of a brokered convention

[Slander and/or Libel]

I'm not a Silver-basher per se. I just don't like what he's been doing. As has been said above, he bet the farm on the anti-Trump train, and he's got a vested interest in seeing it arrive at the station.

But he's forgotten that he's dealing with very small sample sizes here, and that it's very likely the only reason presidential elections have seemed to operate under a set of rules is because everybody running implicitly agreed to play by those rules. Trump hasn't so agreed, which has scrambled all of what everybody thought they know about these things.

[Slander and/or Libel]

State polls have consistently placed Trump in the lead.  A huge lead.  For months. 

That's totally irrelevant to his point which was that early polls are a bad indicator. They don't become a good indicator because someone is leading big for a long time.

But he's forgotten that he's dealing with very small sample sizes here

Really? As many times as he has caveated sample size in the past, you really think he's plumb forgotten about them right now?

He talks about it a lot, sure. But his confidence in Trump's pending disintegration would indicate that he hasn't taken it fully to heart.

[Slander and/or Libel]

I think it would inspire massive unrest among party voters if they gave most of their votes to Trump/Cruz yet at the convention the establishment orchestrated the nomination of Rubio/Christie/Kasich.

[Slander and/or Libel]

Can someone explain how proponents of the "party decides" theory think that there will not be a revolt by GOP voters if the party nominates someone who came in third or fourth place in the delegate count by virtue of votes cast in primaries?

[Slander and/or Libel]

Can someone explain how proponents of the "party decides" theory think that there will not be a revolt by GOP voters if the party nominates someone who came in third or fourth place in the delegate count by virtue of votes cast in primaries?

Easy: It's a two party system and no matter how mad they get they aren't going to vote Democrat.

You're forgetting the obvious alternative - not voting at all.

Yeah, it's not often that it happens, but I agree with Wulfric here. Revolt doesn't have to manifest as crossing party lines or anything.