Nate: Don't Pawn Your Lisa Murkowski Gear Just Yet

[Lunar]

I think so. Obviously Murkowski going third party will help.  As Joe Miller proved during the primary, it doesn't take a lot of money to compete in such a cheap media market.  Miller had a number of weird incidents during the primary and, while no Sharron Angle, could also be more gaffe-prone than Mike Lee over in Utah or whatevsky.

I think it's worth keeping on your watch list, just like I've maintained states like Indiana and Delaware should be kept on your watch list.

Before you comment, at least for the people who actually wish to seriously opine, I strongly suggest reading this and watching this.

[Lunar]

The city council candidate I worked with in 2009 had raised more money at this point in the cycle than McAdams has.

His fundraising abilities will play little part in being competitive here.  If Murkowski switches to a third party line, the money will come.  And it won't take much.

[Lunar]

Yeah, he can talk well. And he has a great opportunity. But he has no money. I think the DSCC would have to totally foot the bill.

It costs like $10 to run a radio ad in Alaska, seriously.  What do you think would have a higher expected outcome, $200,000 given to Blanche Lincoln or to Scott McAdams

[Lunar]

lol

I'm not going to get my hopes up.

Hey hey, I'm just saying to keep him on the same level as Indiana, Delaware, and maybe Louisiana, situations which could become competitive if the races develop in a certain way, not that he has any tangible chance as of now.

[Lunar]

Yeah, he can talk well. And he has a great opportunity. But he has no money. I think the DSCC would have to totally foot the bill.

It costs like $10 to run a radio ad in Alaska, seriously.  What do you think would have a higher expected outcome, $200,000 given to Blanche Lincoln or to Scott McAdams

I know it's cheap, and it's cheap for Murkowski and Miller too. Murkowski's already rich and Miller has the tea party's funds behind him, so McAdams is gonna need to spend a lot, even if it'll be cheap.

The idea isn't necessarily to spend enough to win, per se, but rather to spend enough to be known so that if the opportunity presents itself, you're there to seize it.  That'd only take spending maybe one third of what the other two clowns are spending...remember, it's a cheap media market.  Like, at a certain saturation point, spending more money won't get you very much farther into the electorate.

[Lunar]

I think so. Obviously Murkowski going third party will help.

Is she?

She's said she's considering it, the Libertarians are the only ones who say they'll hear her pitch, but she seems sort of like the antithesis of the Libertarians outside of her moderate position on abortion

[Lunar]

... could Miller go on the Libertarian line if he loses?

I believe so.  If they'd accept him.  But I'm fairly confident that Miller has won the GOP primary.

[Lunar]

PPP is polling Alaska this weekend (yes, I know, Alaska polling sucks). They've tweeted about it:

"Dems should not be rooting for Murkowski third party run...Crist like effect pulling more from McAdams than Miller"

So no, he shouldn't be. He could very well end up with 10-15% of the vote in a three-way contest.

Of course, a third party run is less predictable.  

I think Crist switching to Independent gave Meek more chances for victory, even if he may have squandered them or if said chances never realized themselves, things were not structurally looking very good for Meek in a 2 way battle.

a 3 way race could shake things up a bit, and I'm not sure if those dynamics are really 100% pollable, especially in Alaska, at this point

[Lunar]

I know you have fantasies, Lunar, but this is definitely not the right year for them.

Same fantasies I have for Indiana & Delaware...I'm not saying there's a serious chance, but rather that it's worth keeping an eye on.  Somewhere more competitive than North Dakota, that's all.

[Lunar]

Yeah Cinyc, you won't see me arguing that the fundamentals of this race in any way, shape, or form favor of the Democratic candidate.

[Lunar]

makes sense, Murkowski running on the Libertarian line wouldn't make much sense ideologically

[Lunar]

Politico 2010 A1:


Dems ready to stand by McAdams

[Lunar]

Perhaps Dgov is right. Perhaps the stimulus, health care, it was all a mistake. I really don't know any more.

You're such a dramamama Beet!  You can't give up on Keynesian economics because of some dismal poll numbers!

[Lunar]

The above is correct that Miller won't be an Angle or a Paul.  As I linked to in my first post on this thread though, he still has weird issues. But yeah, Miller is an accomplished person, having a law degree from Yale and a Masters in Economics from University of Alaska, I think.v  So he has a brain, and I'm pretty sure Miller will be better than Paul at understanding local issues

[Lunar]

Sharron Angle isn't dumb either. She earned her college degree from the flagship university of the University of Nevada system, UNR. However, she is very driven by her conservative beliefs and comes off as crazy as a result. Just because you have a degree from Yale doesn't mean you are going to be a fantastic candidate. Just ask GWB.

You are aware that GWB got elected twice to the highest office in the land?  I mean, you must be using a pretty damn harsh definition for "fantastic candidate" ... I mean... he won, twice.  He won the gold medal in candidate Olympics.  He's just dyslexic.

[Lunar]

I think so. Obviously Murkowski going third party will help.  

Yeah.

Please tell us the identity "third party."

Congrats on digging up a hypothetical post of mine prior to the third parties rejecting her.  Truly impressive, not reading the rest of the thread and all. 

But anyway, the Libs are waffling on their initial rejection:
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/gop-primaries/116705-libertarian-option-still-alive-for-murkowski

[Lunar]

You're aware that, once elected, "non-establishment" candidates eventually do become "establishment" by become more active in the party, unless they're epic fail like Bunning. I mean, even Rand Paul has been sucking up to McConnell lately.

Maybe you'll find out eventually, if Rick Scott is elected, becomes the face of the Florida GOP, starts to pick proteges...

That's why we need strict term limits, cut pay for all elected officials and keep sessions of government to under half the year. Basically "politician" shouldn't be a job position it should be a service position strictly.

That's what it's like in NY, but it's inherently problematic because it leads to endless conflicts of interest

[Lunar]

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/09/18/more-on-murkowskis-math/

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/09/17/murkowski-can-win-as-write-in/