what states can obama win in the general that clinton cant?

[Lunar]

I think everyone has to focus on states that one or the other can win in event of that state actually mattering.  Probably, to the credit of Waltermitty, if the election is close, the best Obamarguments are for Colorado, Virginia, and the Western Midwest.  Hillary has a stronger claim for the Eastern Midwest (OH, WV, PA) and Southwest (NV& NM) and Arkansas.

As an Obama supporter, I think Hillary's math looks much better if it is a close race.  However, I believe that Obama is more likely to win in something that doesn't resemble a close race.  It's really unfair to simply compare the candidates in a 50/50 or even a 52/48 election without also comparing their chances for a moderate or large landslide.

Obama DOES open up states that Hillary can't depending on the scenario.  He competes better in the strategically important Western Midwest (IA, MN, WI, possibly MI & MO).  An Obama landslide, big or small, looks *very* different from a Hillary landslide to us political junkies.  Obama will comparatively drive up youth, white male, and African-American turnout, and drive down the Hispanic & eww old people turnout.  It's again simply ridiculous to claim that they'd be the exact same electoral contenders.

[Lunar]

Lunar's analysis is pretty good.  I would possibly disagree about Michigan and definitely disagree about Missouri.  The other state evaluations seem pretty good to me.

Yeah I think I was a bit  dumb when I said MO.  I don't know, every article I've read (maybe 4+) has said that MO is trending democratic when to me it's always seemed the opposite.  I'll change my opinion of "maybe MO" to "probably a tie" between Obama and Clinton numbers.  I don't know, I see a little more hope for Obama than Clinton due to his surprising upset microscopic victory there.  But, I guess it won't matter that much. 

I still think Obama would do better in the general in MI than Clinton.  I don't know if I have any factual basis for this except perceptions of excitement and African-American demographic numbers.  Clinton won an uncontested early on, where name recognition means a lot, 55-45 against uncommitted? Even assuming a HUGE Obama grassroots movement to get African-Americans to vote uncommitted, I'm not convinced that this explains Clinton's god-awful showing in the state early on.

[Lunar]

Oh crap, you're right, in Florida Clinton will do better than McCain.  Speaking of old people, FLA is the definition of an old, white electorate.  It does have some African-Americans and a good variety of Republican and Democratic Hispanics.  I can't see an old white electorate supporting the unconventional young black candidate.

I think Florida is McCain's in a 50-50 or 48-52 scenario.  But Hillary *can* force McCain to spend more money in those expensive media markets than Barrack, and both Hilldawg and Barrack will have more money to play around and force him to do such things.

[Lunar]

Pennsylvania is a better definition of an old white electorate than Florida actually. I think Penn might be the "oldest" state in the nation. The Pittsburg metro area might be the oldest one in the nation.

Do you have any numbers? 

I've found projections:

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http://proximityone.com/st0030.htm

At the very least, those last six states are trending more eww old people than the rest of the forty four states. 

I found a blog post in my quick searching that claims that PA has the second oldest population in the US after Florida.  http://www.talkleft.com/story/2008/3/15/185419/176
              Take it with a grain of salt though, I do not endorse random comments