So what happened to the Bradley Effect? (user search)
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  2008 U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderator: Dereich)
  So what happened to the Bradley Effect? (search mode)
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Poll
Question: What happened to the Bradley Effect?
#1
It's a myth and never existed to begin with
 
#2
It existed at one time, but died out before this election
 
#3
The Obama turnout ground game overwhelmed it
 
#4
The polls got better
 
#5
When the economy's this bad, skin color becomes a lot less important
 
#6
The Obama candidacy made enough people comfortable with the idea of a black president
 
#7
Other (explain)
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 45

Author Topic: So what happened to the Bradley Effect?  (Read 5274 times)
Lunar
Atlas Superstar
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Posts: 30,404
Ireland, Republic of
« on: November 05, 2008, 04:59:06 AM »
« edited: November 05, 2008, 05:04:38 AM by Lunar »

It's what I've been saying all along, it is just one minor reason why the polls can be wrong.  Methodological errors, other polling bias (cell-only, weighting schemes), and ground game are all more reliable predictors for polling inaccuracy than a knee-jerk, inane, stupid devotion to the Bradley Effect.  Lying to pollsters for any reason is a serious concern and a source of error, but to just "assume" that the actual result is about X more Republican than the results show just because Obama is on the flip side of the ticket is absurd and defies logic.

This is proof how bias interrupts analytical legitimacy.
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