Kerry Pulls Campaign Ads From Four States: AZ, AR, LA, MO

[Lunar]

He rightly was trying to keep as many states in play as possible before it was clear where the chips lay.

I'm surprised about Missouri which only seems to be +3% in favor of Bush.  I don't know about Arkansas due to the lack of polling in the state.

[Lunar]

Do you have any polls from Vermont?  It seems like it is still Dean and Sanders country.

I know you disagree with me, but I would say that Bush has already won if he takes Washington, Michigan, New Jersey, or ME1.

I agree with your analysis of the states Kerry has a shot in (Although MO seems out now), but disagree with the Gore 2000 ones that will be close in a tied election.

Iowa
ME2
New Mexico
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Minnesota (maybe)

[Lunar]

As I said, I agree with you about
 Iowa
ME2
New Mexico
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin.

However, I don't see the Gun issue flipping ME1 the necessary 5+%.

Michigan- The polls have pretty consistantly shown Kerry to be strong here.  In addition, the Democratic machine in the state is relatively strong, especially in Detroit.

For New Jersey to be close in a tie, the Republicans WILL need an expensive GOTV effort and they will need to buy ads in the expensive New York media markets.  Neither candidate seems to take those polls seriously since they both seem to be ignoring a huge EV state.

In Oregon, Nader is off the ballot and the Democratic machine is pretty strong in the state, but I still think it will be relatively close in a tie.

You justify Vermont off local politics, but I don't think that's enough.  Otherwise you'd think that Louisiana would be a Democratic paradise.

You paint Washington as a tossup according to the polls, but the polls slant in favor of Kerry by quite a bit, perhaps even as much as 5%, or the amount that Gore carried the state by: Link

The polls have pretty consistantly shown Bush to be around 3% worse than his national average in Minnesota.  I've actually been amazed by how many polls show this again and again.