Democrats CAN capture Texas.

[Lunar]

People vote at their socioeconomic status and some minorities, like African-Americans, already vote at higher levels than what their white socioeconomic peers vote (meaning an African-American plumber making $65,000 or whatever a year will be more likely to vote than his white counterpart making the same amount).

And I don't know why they'd start voting their numbers all of a sudden.  Doesn't the census attempt to count illegals too?

I mean, look at the polls for all adults vs. likely voters.  One is reality and one is not.  The reason why the fictional one gives a rosier picture for Democrats isn't really all attributed to minorities either...

/ramble

[Lunar]

If Obama wins Florida by an 8% margin

I'll stop you right there. There's no way in hell Obama wins Florida by 8 points. That means he will have to win nationally by 12 points at least which won't happen.

Would you have said in April 2005 that Barack Obama would've even came close to being the democratic nominee?

If the economy is "fixed" in four years, 12 points is possible.

I'd argue that each party has a baseline of 45%, and its the 10% in the middle that swing the election.

I would further argue that the Republican candidates that are most likely to implode nationally are ones like Huckabee and Palin that entrench the negative image of the GOP as being white, Southern, rural, etc.  These types of candidates might not do too badly in the white parts of Texas.