Political Parties in Quebec

[mountvernon]

Monolingual Anglophone American here, though one with an unusual interest in Canada.  I have a

I understand the dominant cleavage in Quebec politics is on the sovereignty question -- that's what determines whether someone is a Liberal or a Pequiste.  From what I gather, the Liberals are slightly to the right of the PQ on socioeconomic questions, but the difference is not great, and both provincial parties are left-of-center by Canadian standards.   (The ADQ/CAQ leans right, and the QS is way, way left, but my questions are more about what makes a Francophone choose between the two major parties).

Because of the sovereignty question, Anglophones, allophones and ethnic Quebecers of all kinds are essentially unanimously Liberal.  To outside eyes like mine, the Francophone majority looks rather homogenous, and it appears that "divisions in the head" on sovereignty explain partisanship more than demographic variables do.  But as I try to understand what makes someone Liberal / Non or PQ / Oui, I have encountered some confusing issues.

In all of these matters, I'm talking exclusively about Francophones, since non-Francophones vote overwhelmingly Liberal.

Socioeconomic Status: This seems to be a complex pattern, perhaps reflecting partisanship's grounding in the sovereignty question, rather than socioeconomic issues. I have read several accounts that state higher education is associated with support for the PQ (at least among Baby Boomers), but higher income may be associated with support for the Liberals.  (While these seem to contradict each other, this phenomenon is quite common in the United States).  I have also seen that provincial government workers lean to the PQ, but federal and private-sector workers are more Liberal.  (And yet Quebec City, especially its suburbs, has been cool to the PQ). The business community as a whole leans Liberal, although many small businesspeople vote ADQ / CAQ.  Professionals and "intellectuals" lean PQ, although some younger ones prefer the QS.  Are these assertions correct?

Gender: Women lean Liberal and are also more likely to back QS.  I've seen these preferences described as a reflection of women's aversion to risk (a pretty consistent finding across societies), which makes them less supportive of Quebec independence.  I've also seen women's allegiance explained as reflecting stronger ties of the Liberals and QS to feminist groups.  Do people have any insights?

Religiosity: I understand that Quebec Francophones have some of the lowest levels of religious observance in the industrialized world.  Does religiosity still have any political relevance at all?  I've read that the Liberals tend to perform better with the religiously observant, but that might reflect a higher level of religiosity among non-Francophones.  (An observer from 1950 reading that sentence would think I had lost my mind).  Or perhaps the PQ is seen as a militantly secular party.  Despite performing well in traditionally strongly Catholic areas such as the Chaudiere-Appalaches, I gather the ADQ / CAQ is not socially conservative, and has no particular appeal to observant Catholics.

Age: Here we find a cohort pattern -- with Liberals performing best with the oldest voters, who came of age before separatism entered the political mainstream, and the PQ strongest with Baby Boomers, who came of age during the separatist golden age of the 1970s.  (I would guess the Union Nationale's onetime voters are almost entirely dead now).  Younger voters are apparently less interested in the sovereignty question, and are more willing to back either the CAQ or the QS.  Of the two major parties, which one is performing better among voters under 50?

Bilingualism: Maps seem to show a pattern of the PQ doing better in areas with lots of monolingual Francophones, e.g. Saguenay.  But I haven't seen anything saying whether bilingual Francophones are actually more likely to oppose separatism.  I have seen a few accounts suggesting that Francophones with strong emotional ties to Canada, or with personal relationships with non-Francophones and the ROC, are less separatist.  But I don't know bilingualism has anything to do with it.  The traditional tie between education and support for the PQ would seem to argue against such a link.

So does anyone have any answers to these questions?

[mountvernon]

Thanks for the comments!  Of course, I forgot to mention the PQ's traditional ties to organized labor, which I guess helps explain its strength in industrialized areas like Saguenay.  Most of the accounts claiming that the PQ is stronger among the better-educated Francophones are from the 1970s and 1980s.  It sounds like younger members of this demographic are not so supportive of separatism.

Here are a few geographic-specific questions.

Why does the Quebec City region stand out for its conservatism and (relative) federalism?  Not what I would expect from a traditional center of Francophone life.  Presumably, there are plenty of provincial civil servants in the area.

Why is the PQ so much stronger on the North Shore than on the South Shore? In the Montreal area, is it just that the South Shore suburbs have more anglophones and allophones?  Downriver, is it because there's more heavy industry on the North Shore?  Why the relative conservatism of Chaudiere-Appalaches and Centre-du-Quebec?

Is there any link between federalism and bilingualism?  The Estrie has a large bilingual population, and is generally Liberal and hostile to separatism.  But there are some rural Francophone areas like Chaudiere-Appalaches that are also hostile to separatism, but don't have many bilinguals.