What makes states trend right?

[RINO Tom]

NYM, I think you have good points, but I'm sure you can also see why it gets annoying to constantly read some of the - err - optimistic predictions of future election trends coming from Forum Democrats.  It really does come off as if a state is not a wasteland (i.e., has a relatively educated population, has nice and growing suburbs, has a cosmopolitan area or two, has diversity, etc.), it will soon be a Lean D state, and every "enlightened" demographic (i.e., the highly educated, the tolerant, those who live in wealthy areas, etc.) is forever embracing the Democratic Party ... and I think we all know that's a disturbingly self-indulging representation of the Democratic coalition.  Of course, you didn't insinuate any of that, but I'm just trying to understand where RockefellerGOP's rather snappy response might have come from.

As for your comments, I don't necessarily disagree with them all, but here's my attempt at devil's advocate:

1. Why might Minnesota become more Republican?  Well, it's not unreasonable to think that rural Minnesota - an area that votes a lot more Democratic than the rural areas in other Midwestern states - will trend away from the Democrats, is it?  It might not, but it's not outrageous.  Additionally, Minneapolis' suburbs might be the most GOP-friendly part of the state, and they're growing.

2. Similarly to MN, I don't think it's crazy to think the UP and some of Michigan's other rural areas might trend slightly toward the Republicans, especially if Democrats keep running campaigns that seem geared entirely toward running up margins in urban areas and inner-suburbs.  I doubt the GOP makes up that much ground in MI, but they have room to grow.  Wisconsin, like MN, has some very GOP-friendly suburbs around Milwaukee.  If Republicans can do even a little bit better with minorities, the state is very much in play.

3. The Republicans' way to win Pennsylvania comes from presenting itself as more moderate and gaining back its old margins in the suburbs.  I think that will be a little more difficult, seeing as many of Philadelphia's suburbs are now a lot more diverse and working class than they were in the '80s (when the GOP was winning them).

4. I think if the GOP were willing to moderate on CULTURAL issues (notice: not social issues ... being pro-life and pro-Second Amendment is not hurting the GOP electorally; being anti-gay marriage and appearing xenophobic is) - which isn't out of the question when you look at polls of younger Republicans compared to their parents - some of the first states to see big gains in would be NH and ME.  They both have somewhat libertarian electorates, both were Republican states for decades and both continue to elect Republicans to at least some statewide offices.

5. I agree that Ohio will remain a battleground state ... I mean when was the last time it wasn't?