German Elections & Politics

[parochial boy]

I'm for a majority election law similar to the UK what keeps minor parties out of the Bundestag. Which I would then limit to 500-550 seats; one per district and districting by an independent commission.

Well, apart from the fact this will probably never happen of course (and is hence far less likely than Germany trying out a minority government) I sure as hell hope that things would balance themselves out a bit under such a system. Under a straight FPTP system, the CDU/CSU would currrently hold a three-quarter majority in the Bundestag and they also would have done so in 2013.

Unless you hope that the voters of FDP, Greens, and Left would flock to the two major parties under a FPTP system, which basically means that you want the electoral system as a measure to force voters of the smaller parties to switch to the bigger ones. Curiously, I seem to recall that you're a member of one the two major parties yourself, so your own party would be the one who'd potentially profit the most from such a change.

Especially considering that the UK and Canada show that FPTP doesn't mean a consolidation of the vote around two parties.

One thing does occur though, is it fair to say that Germany has less regional polarisation than other countries? looking at how the CDU dominate the constituency vote across the board.

[parochial boy]

maybe it's time to activate article 48 of the Weimar constitution and have a presidential government

Von Schleicher and Von Papen always knew what to do in these sorts of situations

[parochial boy]

Governments aside, which nations have majorities of people who would even want a United States of Europe at this point? This seems like something everyone wants as a long term goal but would never go for in the medium term.

Literally none. Even in Germany, polling is against it, and the EU as it stands is much more unpopular in most other member states. The SPD has a deathwish, it seems. If they drag the CDU along this path, AfD and Linke will become the top parties in East Germany, ironically the opposite of what the grand coalition would want.

lol wat?

[parochial boy]

Not that SPD had much option, given that the FDP proved that they are incapable of acting like adults.

[parochial boy]

Supposing Groko fails and antipathy to a minotity government leads to another eletion this year. Is there any real chanece the results would lead to a situation that makes it any easier to form a coalition.

I mean, I can see some consolidation around the CDU, and FDP in particular getting punished in such as event (and potentially the SPD as well, they seem to be a in a lose-lose position right now). But how do you ever get over the line without either a grand coalition or a three party one?

[parochial boy]

Clickable new map of the 2017 federal election results by town (there are 11.000):

https://interaktiv.morgenpost.de/gemeindekarte-bundestagswahl-2017

I think this is the first map of its kind.

White = no inhabitants.

Also do not forget the +/- zoom sign at the bottom right, to show results for small towns.

What the  is wrong with the people living in Norderfriedrichskoog (39.3% FDP) and Fredeburg (51.8% Greens). I live in Schleswig-Holstein, but I have no clue why it is such a strong Greens and FDP stronghold.

For the FDP - protestants preferring not to vote for the traditionally catholic CDU?

The Greeny place is tiny, so it's probably statistics noise - but the Greens seem to do quite well between Lübeck and Hamburg, which is presumably quite wealthy commuter land etc, etc...

[parochial boy]

The GRAND Coalition has no majority anymore ... (47.5% vs. 48.5%):

If this is the result of the next election there will be massive pressure on FDP and Greens to join CDU/CSU into a government.  I guess if the trends last few election cycles and government formation continues like this we will eventually get to a place where it is  (AfD+Linke) > (CDU/CSU+SPD+FDP+Greene) 

That wont happen, most European countries have a pretty solid ceiling for far right support, and Germany's will be lower than most

[parochial boy]

Interesting thing is that, judging by recent polling, the left wing vote is still actually sitting at around 40%, which is barely different to the election - but Die Linke and the Greens have only seen marginal rises in response to the SPD's fall.

I guess the question is, if the SPD is as doomed as is being made out, and Germany maintains a 40%ish left wing vote, will Die Linke, the Greens or someone else manage to make some serious progess? Are do we wind up with three parties in the 10-15% range?

[parochial boy]

If Wagenknecht were to leave would she try and start her own party?

Frauke Petry founded her own party: Die Blauen, which might enter the Saxon parliament next fall.
I suggest if Wagenknecht creates a new one, too, she call it "Die Roten" - and she would be likely to to fill a niche in the market; we don't have a Democratic party that is both socialist and pro-German.

Ignoring its subsequent collapse, the success of Pilz List suggests that there is a market for such a party.

But that was partly helped by the self-immolation of the Greens, which is not really where the Left are at the moment. Tbh, they seem to be blowing a pretty good opportunity to take advantage of the current climate. Which isn't exactly surprising, I guess.

[parochial boy]

Yeah, I mean, polling "what if" questions generally has close to zero resemblance to what would actually happen in the event of...

[parochial boy]

SPD + Greens +Linke are now pretty reliably polling in the 40-42% region, which is still a pretty undeniable move on the combined 38.5% they got in September. Amid all the talk about the AFD surge, that seems to be worth pointing out

[parochial boy]

Doesn't the fact they got arrested sort of undermine the argument that there are places the police are scared to go?

[parochial boy]

Reckon the FDP did the Greens the biggest favour ever by breaking the Jamaica negotiations. German polling has literally become hillarious.

(on a side note, red-red-green seems to have gone from the 40-42% range to the 43-45% range over the last few weeks, which is nice to see)

[parochial boy]

Probably, yeah, I can imagine your traditional CDU voter is not exactly enamoured with the current political scene.

Although I'm a little suspicious of the "polling in situation X was out in this way, so it will be in situation Y too". That's part of why we all went into the Sweden and France elections presuming that SD and Le Pen were going to do better than the polling suggested. Granted, the changes in voting intention in Germany have probably been radical enough that it is by nature hard to poll, which could mean CDU getting final day surges as undecided voters return "home", but I wouldn't necessarily expect it.

[parochial boy]

The cradle of Greens getting finally direct seat for them (the Slavic agricultural seat in Eastern Hannover).

The Lüneburg seat? I was presuming that was down to that was down to Lüneburg itself being failrly lefty?

And is this map largely based on uniform swing - in which case given the flux going on, I wouldn't necessarily have though applying uniform swing would be especially meaningful if you're getting a large scale change in how people vote.

[parochial boy]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1056593210468909058

CDU-Grüne: 63

SPD-Grüne-Linke: 63

16 overhang seats?

[parochial boy]

AKK, Jens Spahn and Friedrich Merz are running for the party chairmanship so far.

AKK seems to be the frontrunner, but Spahn has been pretty popular among party delegates at the recent conventions. I'm wondering whether his job as Minister of Health hurt him, because he's not really doing a good job. And he's viewed rather unfavorable among non-conservatives.
I'd love to see Friedrich Merz as Chairman. He has become an outsider without any baggage, he could get a lot of former CDU-Voters back and isn't toxic to moderates either. And as a former rival of Merkel, he is the ultimate Anti-Merkel candidate.

For a minute, I wondered whether Merz entered the race as a spoiler to Spahn.

Is a plurality enough to win? If so, they'd definitely hurt each other. Anyway, I could see one of them drop out and support the other. As long as Merkel stays on as Chancellor the party chairman will struggle anyways, because everything will stay the same with her and I doubt that anyone can pull the CDU out of their slump due to the GroKo.

No, there is a runoff if no one wins a majority. But unless AKK wins, GroKo will be as good as dead.

What would happen other than new elections in that case? It's not like there is another government that is even possible...