Scottish independence referendum 2017?

[parochial boy]

I know a lot of people who were vehemently anti-independence last time, who have now swung over to being pro-independence.

Whether it is enough to tip an independence vote over the line, I'm not sure.

[parochial boy]

I would make one point - obviously, I'm no expert on the Scottish economy and someone else may be able to correct me on this - if Scotland should choose to leave the UK, assuming we've left the EU, then they'll be leaving the economic area with which they do nearly two thirds of their trade (I think this is the correct figure as of about 2014) for an economic area with which they do roughly 15% (indeed, it's ironic that one of the most heavily Remain areas of the UK actually does less trade with the EU than the country as a whole). Undoubtedly, again, assuming we actually do leave the EU, the Scots will have to work out some trade deal with us.

Now, I'm not saying 'ermagerd Scotland can't leave UK cos teh trade'; undoubtedly, there are a lot of other issues in play (for example, the funding Scotland receives from the EU), but it would be rather ironic if, in order to remain a member of one trading bloc, Scotland walked out of by far its  export market.

Ah, but Scotland has this cake you see, it's a sort of shortbread type thing, that you can buy at airports, that is very popular in England.

And the English are still going to want to buy that cake.

[parochial boy]

[parochial boy]

Looks like Brussels isn't that enamoured with the SNP:

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http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3660320/NON-EU-slaps-Sturgeon-SNP-leader-dramatically-announces-wants-immediate-discussions-STAY-EU-humiliated-Brussels-says-No-s-not-works.html

Wouldn't it be a bigger "F*** the British" to let Scotland in relatively easily and in doing so precipitate the break up of the UK?

[parochial boy]

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From the Guardian.

So, big if, if a referendum is to happen, it will probably be within the next year. Time for the current emotion to die down? Or for fears to get worse as the full on implications of Brexit manifest themselves?

[parochial boy]

A return to pre-rBrexit polling is probably not overly surprising now that the initial emotion has died down somewhat.

The question is, where god the polls go if the Brexit negotiations go badly, i.e., loss of single market access, free movement etc...

Or perhaps, more importantly, the dual possibility of a post-Brexit recession starting to really bite, combined with more reactionary English nationalist policies being put in place by the Tories to try and appease that particular wing of the party.

[parochial boy]

The economic question is going to be a major barrier to a "Yes" vote the next time round.

If it, as is generally accepted, true that the Yes campaign lost as a result of failing to make convincing enough economic argument; then it is going to be much harder for them this time round with oil prices having fallen through the floor and having opened up a major budget deficit in Scotland. No campaigners will also point out the Scotland is far more dependent on trade with the rest of the UK than with the EU.

This, of course, assumes that Scottish voters are more rational than English ones - and the collapse of the GBP this week will have given Scotland an effective 15% bump in oil revenues, since oil is sold in dollars.