Canada 2006 (23rd Jan)

[bullmoose88]

Seems like the Tories and Bloc won't trigger a NCM. They want the NDP to do it.

Will the NDP file a no confidence motion?

[bullmoose88]

Ugh...I don't know who to back in this thing...

I'm best charactized as a Red Tory (in the socially liberal sense)...


Given how the Liberals are a tad too corrupt for their own good...perhaps its time for Harper...even for just a short while?

[bullmoose88]

Greens? Economically Conservative?

What?

[bullmoose88]

What would happen if ( and its a big if ) if the Liberals fiish 3rd in seats behind the Conservatives and the NDP, who would they support in govt ?

Well, if they did finish third, we would be looking at a Conservative majority.

You sure?

I mean thats the probable outcome...

but what if there's a much bigger swing from Lib to NDP than there is between Lib to Con (and the Con to NDP or vica versa is near 0)

[bullmoose88]

What would it take for the Conservative to win in Quebec? or is that impossible...and they are basically facing the same sort of extremely uphill battle that the UK tories have in Scotland and Wales?

(In other words, is there any sort of center right bloc there?)

[bullmoose88]

What would it take for the Conservative to win in Quebec? or is that impossible...and they are basically facing the same sort of extremely uphill battle that the UK tories have in Scotland and Wales?

(In other words, is there any sort of center right bloc there?)

Like Scotland, Conservatives used to do really well there but have since been just about wiped out.

According to Earl's awesome maps, PC got 84% of the seats in Quebec in the 1988 election. 

Thing is, if I remember correctly, a lot of the Tory vote in scotland had nothing to do with conservatism and everything to do with the fact that the Tories were the "unionist" party (so much so that they were the last party to get a majority of the vote).

So now that the unionist question isn't as well...important (or at least the reason why people vote the way they do)...the left parties do much better...

I'm wondering if Quebec is just that much more leftist or something relative to the rest of canada (especially Ontario)

[bullmoose88]

I think Harper deserves another shot...if only to discredit the Western Populist Conservatives. Although, he seems eloquent enough otherwise.


I just wonder what will happen to MacKay...I'd like to see him take control...being a former PCer and all.

[bullmoose88]

What would it take for the Conservative to win in Quebec? or is that impossible...and they are basically facing the same sort of extremely uphill battle that the UK tories have in Scotland and Wales?

(In other words, is there any sort of center right bloc there?)

Like Scotland, Conservatives used to do really well there but have since been just about wiped out.

According to Earl's awesome maps, PC got 84% of the seats in Quebec in the 1988 election. 

Thing is, if I remember correctly, a lot of the Tory vote in scotland had nothing to do with conservatism and everything to do with the fact that the Tories were the "unionist" party (so much so that they were the last party to get a majority of the vote).

So now that the unionist question isn't as well...important (or at least the reason why people vote the way they do)...the left parties do much better...

I'm wondering if Quebec is just that much more leftist or something relative to the rest of canada (especially Ontario)

Quebec is very leftist. Very VERY leftist. They just elected a gay former cocaine user as their leader of the opposition.

Thats what I thought...Scotland, Wales, for whatever reason, once you strip away the Loyalist/religion question...are likely more left than the rest of the country...Al, comparatively speaking, is it fair to say that Wales and Scotland are less affluent than England (overall)?

And Earl...a similar question for you...where does Quebec stand in terms of affluence (probably ahead of the maritimes)...but what else?

[bullmoose88]

Are the Conservatives ahead in any provinces? (since they're up 1 point nationally, and down 7 in the praries, they should be up somehere[?])

[bullmoose88]

Where is Stronach running this time?

[bullmoose88]

she's gonna run in a tory seat (granted, one she won?)

Wouldn't the liberals move her to a safe riding?

[bullmoose88]

Newmarket-Aurora is Belinda territory!!!

Is there anything beyond your gut feeling to back that assertion?  Looking at past election results it's a natural Tory area that the Libs only manged to win during the right-wing split and it appears to be an election in which the Tories will gain seats and the Grits will lose seats.  I'll grant that without Belinda the Grits wouldn't have any chance but unless someone has released a riding specific poll, I can't see changing my prediction any further.

First of all, the whole 905 area is trending Liberal. The area is Liberal provincially IIRC. In fact, it was Liberal federally since 1993. The Conservatives only won in 2004 because of the "Belinda factor". Remember, the riding was still very close. Why? Because the riding is very Liberal. Now that Belinda is a Liberal, she should keep it.

Liberal since 1993? Since the PC split and collapse? Ernest has a point here.

I personally think she'll hold it, but wouldn't be surprised if the Tories take it from her.

[bullmoose88]

A Decima poll shows the Tories with a 9pt lead. Rumour has it that Ipsos-Reid are about to release a poll showing an 11pt lead and that EKOS has something earth shattering...

Looking pretty damn bleak for Martin now in't it? He now has to win the debate and win it well or he's toast IMO.

Maybe it won't even matter if he wins the debate...people can still like (or at least not hate) the party leader and hate the party.

[bullmoose88]

Maybe it won't even matter if he wins the debate...people can still like (or at least not hate) the party leader and hate the party.

True ('though Martin himself ain't too popular right now). Still, unless Harper gaffes bigtime, it's probably his last chance at saving political career.
I'm starting to wonder if the Liberals could go completely belly-up actually... what'll be interesting is what happens if (and I still don't see it happening, however much I'd like it to) the gap between the NDP and the Liberals is *smaller* than between the Liberals and the Tories... in more than one poll.

1993 PC belly up?

[bullmoose88]

See...Its hard for me to pick a side to "support" in Canada...obviously not the NDP (sorry), but the Liberals are so damn corrupt, and the Tories are too conservative socially...

gah

[bullmoose88]

1993 PC belly up?

Nah; they've got too many rubber-stamp Tammany Hall strongholds to let that happen... but I get the feeling that this could be 1984 all over again. Maybe not. Maybe tonight will see the beginning of a Martin comeback of Lazarus-like proportions. Probably not though.

Unless Martin can somehow fend off the tide and get the Liberals into a near majority or majority government...how does he stay in power?

[bullmoose88]

11 points?

how does this translate seat wise? is there a natural liberal advantage in the way ridings are drawn which will offset this a bit?

[bullmoose88]

Well, how is the debate going?

[bullmoose88]

Any more thoughts on the debate...the cbc clip, in my opinion, didn't show Martin being that impressive

[bullmoose88]

It seems that, given current polling, the Tories will likely form a minority government...how possible is it, if at all, that they could take a narrow majority...

what sort of polling numbers give that result?

[bullmoose88]

Any Maps? (that US style map you did before 2004 was awfully nifty)

What I want to know (and you'd be one of the best to say)...are the odds the Tories get a majority, minority government, or that the Liberals hold on (what are they looking at now, one chance in twenty? at best?)

[bullmoose88]

Belinda Stronach=Canada's Jim Jeffords

Anyways, I'd agree with your assessment. I'm sitting here thinking of the possible scenarios in which there wouldn't be a tory government...

Theres no chance the NDP and Liberals could band together and form a majority if the Tories fall short of the post right (The bloc numbers ensure that I think)?

if the Tories form a minority government, who do they reach out to (if anyone at all) to make sure they have the numbers to pass critical measures, the liberals (if they're centrist enough in their new form) or the Bloc (which would only seem to be on questions of federalism I think)...I assume the NDP is out of the question.

[bullmoose88]

What sort of district did you poll in?

NDP leaner I assume?

[bullmoose88]

Found this semi-interesting...

Recent Layton campaign stops include Vancouver, Regina, Thunder Bay, Sudbury and London. IIRC he also did a video link thingy for the Madawaska-Restigouche riding in northern New Brunswick (as the weather was bad).

Harper was in Toronto (Don Mills area), Strathroy, Guelph and Sarnia. He was actually in PEI the other day IIRC.

Martin was in London, Kitchener, Brampton and Winnipeg (with a seperate stop in the St. Boniface area).

Duceppe was in Levis, Saguenay, Ascot, Cowansville and Montreal.

Al, or any one else that knows...

What are the nature of the districts that each candidate is visiting? Is Harper assaulting Liberal ridings (or Martin vica-versa)...or are both leaders trying to shore up weaker districts?

[bullmoose88]

I'd have to think very soon, unless the tories can deftly form issue to issue coalitions...