I think Van Der Blub is right. Abdnor beat McGovern 58%-39% only to be defeated six years later by Tom Daschle, who, of course we all know lost very narrowly to John Thune in 2004. That South Dakota seat is quite volatile. If Hersheth eventually challenged Thune in 2010, who knows...but I digress.
Thune seems pretty popular in SD (at least to me, someone from the outside, so take it for what its worth), Perhaps Herseth is better off hoping Johnson decides to not run again, or that she makes a primary challenge?
It'd be a shame to possibly waste her star power against a guy like Thune (who could probably fend her off in a typical year)...