Canadian federal election - 2015

[Boston Bread]

My seat projection with Angus Reid:

If I replaced Quebec's numbers with Leger's numbers to represent a Bloc surge, the Conservatives would have a 20-ish seat lead instead.(although the national vote would 33-32 CPC-NDP once the QC NDP is brought down to Earth) Keep in mind also that Leger also has the Liberals doing better in QC than Angus-Reid, though.

[Boston Bread]

Essex and Brantford-Brant aren't PC though.
On top of what others have said I would add Huron-Bruce.

[Boston Bread]

Essex and Brantford-Brant aren't PC though.

Don't confuse Essex with CKE.

For the record, I was responding to lil Tommy's suggestion of Essex:

Most of SWON I'd say... Perth-Wellington, Lambton-Kent-Middlesex, Oxford, Chatham-Kent-Essex and Elgin-Middlesex-London, Essex, Brantford-Brant.

If the NDP surges, it will be stronger in SWON than in the 905. So we could see PC seats fall while OLP seats stay CPC in places like Halton, Newmarket.

Imagine how badly Hudak would have done if the OLP was actually popular...

[Boston Bread]

Apparently Trudeau wants to abolish FPTP, is that getting any play there?

So does Mulcair and May. But Liberal plan is IRV and NDP plan MMP. Trudeau actually voted against MMP earlier this year.

[Boston Bread]

Ugh. IRV is worse than FPTP.

Not ideal but I find it much better than FPTP since there is no incentive to vote against your first option and all votes have the option to have their vote "count" (by that I mean finding its way into the top two candidates). How is it worse?

[Boston Bread]

Latest Forum has a clear NDP lead
NDP 34%
LPC 28%
CPC 26%

http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/299/conservatives-liberals-tied-for-second/

lol Quebec is the NDP's worst region in that poll, at 31%. Yes, that means they are over 31% in every other region.

[Boston Bread]

My home before attending university was Barrie, so I'd also be interested if anyone knew what was happening on the ground there.

The Liberals would easily stay in 3rd in both ridings based on recent polls. My model shows the NDP trailing to CPC by 8 in the Springwater-Oro-Medonte half, and by 13 in the Innisfil half. However the CPC is already polling as badly as Hudak did, so pushing the margin further will be difficult.

[Boston Bread]

The Barrie-Springwater-Oro-Medonte riding is friendlier to the Liberals than the old riding of Barrie was, since it takes out the southern part of the city which is full conservative-leaning bedroom communities. This is a case of a rurban riding that would give the Liberals and NDP a better chance than a purely urban riding.

[Boston Bread]

Yea, the Liberals did manage to win provincially in Barrie by 4 points.

They won the northern riding but not the southern riding, which was my point.

The last federal election saw Barrie at 57% CPC. The two new ridings are at 54% and 61% CPC, with the northern, more rural riding being less conservative than the original. Not a big difference, but it's clear which one is worth targeting. Even though it's an open seat now, 61% CPC would put Barrie-Innisfil as one of the safer CPC ridings in Ontario.

[Boston Bread]

The CPC has already collapsed in BC according to a number polls. My model already shows Coquitlam-Port Coquitlam going NDP with current poll numbers. Admittedly, I think the CPC will recover somewhat in the province, but the NDP will keep growing as it displaces the Liberals as the anti-Harper option, so I'd say it's a tossup at this point.

[Boston Bread]

These are my model's numbers based on my current polling average.48.1/15.4/29.9 CPC/LPC/NDP are the province wide numbers.

[Boston Bread]

The Bloc surge also seems to have died out. 20% in Forum and low 20's in the Ipsos and Environics poll. So much for Duceppemania splitting the left in Quebec.

[Boston Bread]

F&D is running a candidate in Peterborough?
http://www.mykawartha.com/news-story/5681949-new-candidate-in-peterborough-kawartha-riding-to-represent-quebec-based-party/
Apparently they're trying to go national.

[Boston Bread]

Chow would lead Vaughan 44-36 according to a Mainstreet poll.

[Boston Bread]

Haven't had a seat projection in a while, so here's my projection from the Abacus poll.
(With a decrease in the "other" vote applied. Brent would win a seat as an Independent if I actually input 4% other in Alberta as the Abacus poll suggests.)



Notable NDP pickups in Central Nova, Coquitlam-Port Coquitlam, and Edmonton-Riverbend.

[Boston Bread]

The NDP hasn't won Oshawa since 1990

They have a really good chance this time around. We all know how it went NDP by a surprisingly comfortable margin in the last provincial.

[Boston Bread]

The overall forum poll numbers seem realistic, but the regional numbers are extreme outliers. While I could see a trend towards the NDP in the prairies and an Atlantic Grit decline, this is really sudden. Even more dubious is the trend is towards the CPC in Quebec.

[Boston Bread]

And it appears I haven't missed much since I was away. I was hoping for another major shift like at the end of June.

You want a major shift every month? Too much to ask I think . Canadians are already fortunate enough to see a major shift as often as they currently do.

[Boston Bread]

This is apparently what comes up when a page can't be found on the CPC website.

[Boston Bread]

There's also her statement comparing Quebec to colonized African countries. I don't think she has to leave if she doesn't believe that anymore, but I can understand the reason.

[Boston Bread]

A surprising Guelph riding poll shows the NDP leading by 10, despite placing third last time. Retiring incumbent + C-51 causing a bigger shift there? I'd imagine Waterloo and Kingston would also go NDP if Guelph did.

http://www.guelphmercury.com/news-story/5746804-guelph-s-political-loyalties-may-be-shifting/

[Boston Bread]

Cullen calls for NDP-Liberal coalition in a minority parliament.

Trudeau has said no way to a coalition.

[Boston Bread]

Will Harper support Senate abolition?

https://twitter.com/IvisonJ/status/624366843713622020

[Boston Bread]

The Mainstreet poll's face values don't include leaners. With leaners it is 35 CPC, 29 NDP, 27 LPC. It's also their first federal poll so we don't know if we're seeing a trend.

[Boston Bread]

New Poll shows Conservatives 38% NDP27% Liberal 25% Is this a new trend or Outlier?

see for yourself
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_42nd_Canadian_federal_election

There's plenty of reason to think this is an outlier.

The 308 poll aggregator weighs this poll more than 2 times any other poll in their average, yet the average comes to an NDP-Conservative tie.
There was a poll showing the Conservatives third from a more experienced pollster the day before.
And the for the pollster, this is their first ever federal poll, so we don't even have any prior polls from this pollster to compare with to see if there is a trend.