Alberta General Election - May 5th, 2015

[Boston Bread]

Good god, the final ekos poll has a bigger ndp lead than the original. 42 NDP, 23 PC, 21 Wildrose, 6 Liberal

[Boston Bread]

Never change, AB Greens.
http://bendubois.ca/election1.html

[Boston Bread]

What makes the "Too Close to Call" simulator so different seat wise? 538 and Earl both show NDP being inefficient even with large leads, but Bryan's simulator gives me 70-80 NDP seats when I enter in recent poll results!

[Boston Bread]

Whoops, I of all people shouldn't be getting those two numbers confused...
Anyhow, of the 4 models I follow, 308, Teddy, and Bryan all are showing NDP majorities now. Join the party, Hatman! And it's MayDay, how fitting!
Colour me a beliver in the Notley revolution now.

[Boston Bread]

Btw, since I'm away from home I don't have my seat model with me. But I'll be back just in time to give it one run before the election. Numbers and map will be posted on the morning of the 4th if all goes to plan.

[Boston Bread]

Jean will win easily. I imagine Prenitce and Swann could be in trouble.

In an NDP or PC landslide, Jean could lose to either, although he currently has the advantage. I'd say the NDP has an outside chance if turnout is up a lot - that part of Alberta just doesn't turn out typically. Prentice seems to be more secure than Jean, being an incumbent and having a large by-election win, but we can't be certain. Swann is likewise favoured but could be ousted by an NDP wave. The consensus is that Calgary-Elbow is a PC-Alberta tossup, with a small chance of an NDP win if things really get out of hand.

[Boston Bread]

Is Blakeman cooked or does she have any chance at all?

Going by a proportional swing model, she is headed for a 30 point loss to the NDP. Even though Liberal incumbents were stronger than predicted last time around, this is too big a hole to dig out of, barring a huge polling failure.

[Boston Bread]

My model gives the following result with 308's poll average:

Popular Vote
42% NDP
26% WR
25% PC
5% LIB
2% AB
1% OTH

Edmonton
23 NDP

Calgary
13 NDP, 8 PC, 4 WR, 2 LIB, 1 AB

Rest of AB
19 NDP, 17 WR

Seat Count
55 NDP
21 WR
8 PC
2 LIB
1 AB

And as for Blakeman - my model shows her being wiped out by a 3-1 margin. That's what happens when the NDP poll >60% in Edmonton and the Liberals poll less than one-tenth of that.

Edit: here is the map (template from Teddy's blog)

Note I didn't use any riding polls in my model. If I did the only difference might be Calgary-Shaw going NDP.

[Boston Bread]

My predictions- another huge divergence from the polls.

PCs- 51
NDP- 19
WR- 16
Lib- 1

You heard it here first.

Obviously I hope I'm wrong.

The NDP lead in polling at this point is larger than WR's lead in 2012 and the BCNDP's lead in 2013... it would rip the polling industry a new one.

[Boston Bread]

I had been worrying that Canada would be without an NDP provincial government in any province.

Even if the NDP lose in Alberta there's still a decent chance the Yukon could elect the NDP before the MB election occurs, so there is a second chance to prevent the NDP from being locked out. The last Yukon poll which was a long time ago had 40% Yukon Party, 39% NDP I believe.

[Boston Bread]

Putting the Forum results in my model gives
61 NDP, 23 WR, 2 PC, 1 AB

Whereas Forum's seat projection gives
69 NDP, 16 WR, 2 PC

In both models the Liberals get wiped out. But most notably is the efficiency (or lack of) in the PC vote. If the PCs are over 30% they are very efficient. But below 25% their wide but thin pattern of support causes them to absolutely collapse in the seat count.

[Boston Bread]

EKOS and the Calgary-Foothills numbers would suggest that the NDP is continuing to surge into the last minute of the campaign. Whereas in AB 2012 and BC 2013 the incumbents were catching up in the polls at this point. Which suggests to me that an NDP majority remains the most likely outcome.

[Boston Bread]

Wildrose internals predicting an NDP majority, coming from Jean himself. You gotta wonder what the PC internals are showing now...
http://www.cbc.ca/news/elections/alberta-votes/brian-jean-says-internal-wildrose-polls-show-ndp-majority-1.3060172

Edit: And we have the first poll in the whole campaign not showing an upwards NDP trend!
http://1abvote.ca/ndp-have-momentum-on-social-cue-for-e-day/
1abvote's final poll shows the NDP static at 44%, maintaining a huge lead over Wildrose who moved into second at 22%. PC third at 19%. Interestingly the NDP are performing much better in rest of AB (43%) than in Calgary (33%).

[Boston Bread]

It looks like the Edmonton Journal fell to the same fate as the Globe and Mail did in Ontario 2014. The editor in chief of the Edmonton Journal confirmed that Postmedia ownership demanded a Prentice endorsement, despite their prior policy of not endorsing anyone.

https://twitter.com/bcbluecon/status/595268958057570304

[Boston Bread]

I think the Insights poll is going to be the last poll we have. Still no sign of a PC bump anywhere.

[Boston Bread]

A massive NDP victory will result in some "interesting" candidates being elected. Quite a few university students. If only Ontario had smaller ridings - then even I could run for them whenever an Orange Crush happens here! And an Hugo Chavez fan in Edmonton-Ellersie, who some conservatives are pointing to as evidence of "NDP extremism" (My model shows this riding as a 59-20 NDP gain right now).

[Boston Bread]

Wait,
Alberta isn't a really conservative region?

Oh, try reading the topic's start. Nobody believed the first indicators of an NDP surge. But now every pollster is showing an NDP government is possible, and probably a majority at that.

Basically: The PC budget, which was supposed to be the centrepiece of the PC platform, has become unpopular to both the right and left. Spending cuts that affect the poor. Tax increases that affects the middle class more than the elites. PC has been in for 44 years and a lot of cronyism has been built up. Notley has been a great campaigner and had a stellar debate performance, and is the only opposition party to field candidates in all districts. Polls started showing that the NDP were a viable centre-left opposition party, causing centrist PCs and Liberals to run to the NDP, especially now that they are now longer afraid of Wildrose. Meanwhile Wildrose leader Jean has done little of note and harps robotically about lower taxes, maintaining his base but not much else.

[Boston Bread]

With the polls showing no indication of a PC bump, I'll assume this election is like Quebec 2014 or Nova Scotia 2013 where there was no last minute incumbent recovery. I'll go with a poll average. My model allocates some Lib/AB votes to the NDP in ridings where they have no candidate, bumping the NDP to 45%.

My final projection:
45% NDP, 63 seats
24.6% WR, 18 seats
24% PC, 5 seats
3.6% Liberal, 0 seats
1.9% Alberta, 1 seat
0.9% Other, 0 seats

Final map

[Boston Bread]

Chestmere-Rocky View confirmed for worst riding.

[Boston Bread]

It should become apparent very quickly whether the polls were remotely close at all once the seat numbers start appearing. We are talking about a huge margin of error if the NDP loses.

[Boston Bread]

This is more nerve-racking than Ontario, and I don't even live in Alberta (despite my tribute avatar).

[Boston Bread]

Has any U.S state had one party hold the governership for as long as the Alberta P.Cs?  

The longest I can think of may be the Democrats in Oregon.  the Governor of Washington State has been a Democrat since 1984.

SD has had GOP governors since the 70's, not quite as long but it's comparable. But oddly they've elected many Dem reps in the meantime.

[Boston Bread]

Handful of polls. Let's not start crying already.

[Boston Bread]

2 of the NDP ridings are rural. The gains are still there.

[Boston Bread]

Calgary-Foothills looks decent for Prentice with 1 poll.
NDP 2nd now.