Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015: Official Results & Analysis Thread

[Boston Bread]

71.2% Liberal in the Newfoundland seats reporting so far. Is that normal?

The 2 NDP seats are not in yet. 71% is roughly in line with the 5 rural seats in my model.

[Boston Bread]

CBC projecting that the Liberals have two candidates elected - and they are leading in four others, which must include a seat held by the NDP(?).

South St. John's, which was predicted to be Lib gain. East St. John's (not in yet) going Liberal would be a disaster for the NDP.

[Boston Bread]

NB southwest is liberal. That is huge.

[Boston Bread]

Acadie-Bathurst liberal too. Wow.

[Boston Bread]

Liberals still at 70% in Atlantic.

[Boston Bread]

Liberals up 40% in Atlantic Canada? Is that compared to the same areas or just taken as a comparison to the 2011 final figures?

Comparison to all of the Atlantic in 2011, I think they got 28% in 2011. The remaining seats shouldn't be as liberal. NFLD is what's driving them up.

[Boston Bread]

Liberals starting out strong in Central Nova. Looks like L+1 after all

[Boston Bread]

Atlantic popular vote at 67-15-15. That is 15% over the most recent polls.

[Boston Bread]

It's easier to be more efficient as a 3rd party in a local/provincial campaign. More opportunities to concentrate tactics on a few select ridings to focus the vote. Whereas national election results come in waves that tend to ignore local considerations.

[Boston Bread]

I expect IRV. Electoral reform was a big agenda for progressives on the campaign so I don't think there'll be no plan, instead there will be a plan to make it even easier for them to win.

[Boston Bread]

Observations:

For all the warning of the NDP collapse in MB, it looks like they'll still remain at 2 seats. The NDP also status quo in BC and AB, and gaining seats 3 in SK. So the West seems to be the good news for the NDP this election (net gain of 3!), while everything to the east is horrible news.

What is going on in Markham-Unionville? Why is that seat defying the red tide?

Greens not performing well. Strategic voting hurt them just as it hurt the NDP.

[Boston Bread]

Does anybody have a breakdown of which ridings are not declared yet and who leads in them?

Only one I can see is Kootenay-Columbia. NDP-CPC deadlock. CBC is malfunctioning on me right now so I can't see the others.

[Boston Bread]

Cons fall below 100!!!! Hurrah for BC!

Now that the Liberals are below Harper's 39.6% of the vote in 2011 I think it's safe to say the Tories are not more vote efficient than any other party.

Edit: If results hold this mean 2015 will still be the NDP's second best seat count. Mainly thanks to a net gain of 5 from SK,BC.

[Boston Bread]

Apparently Kootenay-Columbia was prematurely called for CPC... now with all the votes counted the NDP wins. A repeat of Peace River in #abvote.

[Boston Bread]

If NDP gets to 44 seats, as they seem to be on track for, this will still be the second-largest seat tally they get in history (the next largest would be 43 in 1988, though from a somewhat smaller parliament). Not such a disaster.

It's not so much a catastrophe as it is a lost opportunity. Layton already sowed the seeds that made an NDP government possible, all it would take for an NDP government now is one more great campaign. Mulcair could have been the one but failed. With how huge Canadian swings can be, every campaign from here on will be an opportunity for the NDP to win government, even if they start out in 3rd as Trudeau did.

[Boston Bread]

184-99-44-10-1 will likely be the final results.
The Tories tie their 2004 seat performance.

[Boston Bread]

Holy Christ, Judy Foote in Bonavista won 82% of the vote!!

My model put her at 76%... considering I underestimated the LPC by 10% in the Atlantic I'd say those results make sense to me, as impressive as it is.
She would also have the largest vote percent of any candidate; Battle River-Crowfoot gave the CPC "only" 81% (84% or so last time?).

[Boston Bread]

Does anybody have a blank constituency map?

Search here, Smid has what you're looking for.
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=173975.250

[Boston Bread]

I wonder how many ridings the NDP lost because of a Green snatching away NDP voters.

Greens didn't snatch much in the way of anything this time around. I'll give you Bruce Hyer's seat in Thunder Bay but I can't think of any others.
Edit: nevermind apparently NDP+Green < Liberal in Thunder Bay Superior North

[Boston Bread]

Of all the provinces to have a NDP gain in votes, it was PEI (and Nunavut if you count territories). And Quebec is the one province to see a Conservative increase. Canada is odd sometimes.

[Boston Bread]

... was Windsor the largest city that the NDP won? I came to the realization of how badly they took a beating in the urban centers. No seats in the largest city or its surroundings, nor Ottawa, none in Halifax, not even one Quebec City seat. Liberals swept Vancouver, Winnipeg, and Montreal. They didn't even win in Hamilton.

[Boston Bread]

Thanks to their margin in May's riding and 20-30% results in the other Victoria ridings, the Greens actually won the PV by 1 point in Victoria. Windsor would still be the largest city where the NDP won the PV.

http://enr.elections.ca/MajorCentres.aspx?lang=e

You can search for Victoria here.

[Boston Bread]

I hear turnout by province is BC 70%, AB 69%, SK 72%, MB 69%, ON 68%, QC 66%, NB 75%, NS 71%, PEI 77%, NFL 61%, YK 76%, NU 62%, NWT 64%, CAN 68%

That would be impressive numbers in AB and ON, and rather poor turnout in Quebec. Maybe the Niqab served to depress NDP turnout more than convince NDPers to vote for someone else?

[Boston Bread]

The Atlantic is more Liberal than Alberta is Conservative this time around. Spending a whole hour at 32-0-0 or 33-0-0 was downright eerie.

[Boston Bread]

Kootenay-Columbia has a much more conservative history than I thought. Over 60% voted for Reform and Alliance! Now the NDP defeated the CPC who are down to mid 30s there. Being an interior seat, this riding doesn't seem like one where environmentalism plays well. I wonder what happened there?