Would Mark Udall have won if...

[Kraxner]

It's important to note that Beauprez and Gardner were roughly equal in terms of candidate quality. Why did Beauprez lose then? Because Hickenlooper campaigned on multiple issues.

Hickenlooper got credit for an economic recovery in the state.


http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CONA


Had it not been for the GOP wave and gun control he would of gotten 10% instead of a 3% margin. He actually increased his votes compared to 2010, by almost 100k votes.

Also he apologized on gun control and even sang with the banjo(à-vis bill clinton playing the sax in 1992) to try to lure rural coloradans back or at least make them less angry at him and it worked.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KeT86_e89yU


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mT5lGkh96IE


Also i bet just having the last name Hickenlooper, helped despite the headwinds against him.

Delays in Keystone and Immigration reform wasn't a smart move by Obama, in states like AK, CO and NC, states in which we should of won.  The public deserved to know where the Democrats stood on these issues, and yes Torture could of turned these races in the Democratic favor along with putting them on record with the other two issues.

If Obama approved Keystone then the races in those three states would of been leaning more democrat, however amnesty i doubt it. If Obama announced amnesty before the election the democrats would of been even more trounced.

[Kraxner]

It's important to note that Beauprez and Gardner were roughly equal in terms of candidate quality. Why did Beauprez lose then? Because Hickenlooper campaigned on multiple issues.

Hickenlooper got credit for an economic recovery in the state.


http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CONA


Had it not been for the GOP wave and gun control he would of gotten 10% instead of a 3% margin. He actually increased his votes compared to 2010, by almost 100k votes.

Also he apologized on gun control and even sang with the banjo(à-vis bill clinton playing the sax in 1992) to try to lure rural coloradans back or at least make them less angry at him and it worked.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KeT86_e89yU


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mT5lGkh96IE


Also i bet just having the last name Hickenlooper, helped despite the headwinds against him.

Delays in Keystone and Immigration reform wasn't a smart move by Obama, in states like AK, CO and NC, states in which we should of won.  The public deserved to know where the Democrats stood on these issues, and yes Torture could of turned these races in the Democratic favor along with putting them on record with the other two issues.

If Obama approved Keystone then the races in those three states would of been leaning more democrat, however amnesty i doubt it. If Obama announced amnesty before the election the democrats would of been even more trounced.

I agree on AK and probably NC, but I think you are seriously misreading CO.  The swing voters in CO are economic libertarians who strongly support liberal social issues, including the environment.  And the Dem base in CO is as environmentalist as the San Francisco area, while Hispanic turnout was disproportionately low.  So I think if anything, doing the amnesty EO and rejecting Keystone prior to the election might have saved Udall and probably helped Warner and Shaheen win bigger.  Yes, the Romney state Democrats would have lost worse, but the close races were all in diverse/environmentalist states.

http://www.cnn.com/election/2014/results/state/CO/senate#exit-polls


16% of voters in colorado's senate race had illegal immigration as the top issues on their mind and they went 2 to 1 for Cory Gardner. If obama did amnesty before the election its likely that Cory Gardner would of won even bigger. Higher hispanic turnout would not been enough to save udall from a backlash coming from Obama's executive amnesty.

[Kraxner]

Okay, #1 stop calling it amnesty. It's a reprieve. These people could still be deported three years down the road. #2 You're wrong again on Gardner winning bigger. He A. misrepresented his views and came out in favor of comp. immigration reform to appear more more moderate and B. benefitted from lower Latino turnout. Obama's EO would have turned out Latinos and would have pushed the numbers you are referencing down. This isn't a Dem. wish, this is true. Go ask Floyd Ciruli or pretty much any other CO political analyst. Dems fcked up with the Latino vote.