I say no, and always have, since Americans have short-term memories and nothing ever seems to matter unless it happens in the last few weeks. Look at 2016. Trump was done in early October, post-pussygate, then a few weeks later Comey opens his big mouth and the campaign ends with Clinton's emails in the spotlight in the home-stretch.
Why I think some are getting despondent is because a lot has been happening already in these first few months, yet polls are only moving ever so slightly in one way, or noticeably in the other.
It seems like it's going to take something significant in Biden's favor, or significant against Trump to move the polls to where many of us want them to be.
This assumes polls this year are even worth trusting, which I am still somewhat skeptical of.
My prediction is that you will see a conviction of Trump happen around the summer, and another right around the debates, which will cripple his campaign.
As it stands right now, meaning, were the election to be held this week, I think Trump would pull off a narrow victory like Clinton in 1992 in terms of magnitude in terms of the popular vote, and like 2016 in terms of the electoral vote.
But, I do think he will be convicted on one or more charges and be in the process of appeal come debate time, and I think Biden's team will hammer at his status as a convicted felon throughout the fall and during the debates rather than truly debate anything of substance - and I think using that, Biden will narrowly win.
If Trump wins by Clinton 1992 margins in the PV , then he’s probably winning between 340-350 EV. A 2016 margin in the EV suggests a super close PV margin
