UK local by-elections 2015

[Clyde1998]

North Lanarkshire, Thorniewood

SNP 47.0 (+24.3)
Lab 42.6 (-27.9)
Con 4.5 (-0.7)
SSP 2.4 (+2.4)
Green 1.5 (+1.5)
SCP 1.0 (+1.0)
UKIP 0.9 (+0.9)

SNP	1555	1556	1565	1586	1622	1647
Lab	1410	1417	1422	1433	1456	1517
Con	149	158	167	172	175
SSP	81	81	82	89
Green	51	55	61
SCP	33	37
UKIP	29

SNP hold Thorniewood

UKIP Transfers: Con 9, Lab 7, Grn 4, SCP 4, SNP 1, SSP 0 Exh 4
SCP Transfers: SNP 9, Con 9, Grn 6, Lab 5, SSP 1, Exh 7
Grn Transfers: SNP 21, Lab 11, SSP 7, Con 5, Exh 17
SSP Transfers: SNP 36, Lab 23, Con 3, Exh 27
Con Transfers: Lab 61, SNP 25, Exh 89

A few points:
SNP won more transfer votes from left-wing parties (SSP/Greens) than Labour.

Labour won more transfer votes from right-wing parties (UKIP/Con) than SNP.

Who were those three people who voted Socialist then voted Conservative before Labour and SNP!?

By-elections in Scottish councils make no sense - SNP hold the seat despite starting 46% behind Labour. (I know why it's an SNP hold, FTR ).

[Clyde1998]

Edinburgh, Leith Walk (two vacancies)

SNP 36.2 (+7.7)
Lab 25.7 (-7.5)
Green 21.8 (+1.5)
Con 7.9 (-0.2)
Lib Dem 4.0 (-1.1)
UKIP 1.6 (+1.6)
SSP 1.5 (+1.5)
Left Unity 0.5 (+0.5)
Ind 0.4
Lbt 0.3 (+0.3)

SNP	2290	2109	2109	2109	2109	2109	2109	2109	2109
Lab	1623	1650.11	1653.11	1659.58	1661.66	1680.37	1697.56	1798.22	1990.25
Green	1381	1464.61	1469.77	1483.4	1495.27	1502.67	1576.1	1653.31	1729.86
Con	501	503.77	505.85	506.93	507.01	540.17	541.25	574.65
Lib Dem	255	261.64	263.04	265.28	265.28	267.44	271.6
UKIP	102	105.64	105.64	106.8	106.8
SSP	97	107.75	107.75	108.22	122.01	125.17
Left U	32	33.58	33.66	33.9
Ind	26	29	30
Lbt	17	17.87

SNP hold Leith Walk
Lab gain Leith Walk from Green

despite the swing against them, Labour now hold 3 out of 4 seats in that ward,

It's odd - purely because Labour have 'gained' the seat from the Greens despite the Greens being third effectively. I don't think they should hold by-elections using the STV system - but I'm not 100% sure what the alternatives are.

[Clyde1998]

Greens taking a bit of a hit everywhere. Interesting.

Possibly moving towards Labour - or due to lower turnouts compared to the main local elections.

[Clyde1998]

Astonishing Corbyn effect in Scotland!

But not the intended one, it seems...

Apparently, it's the first time since 1924 that Labour have won less votes than the Conservatives (or Unionists) in this town - in any election.

[Clyde1998]

Astonishing Corbyn effect in Scotland!

But not the intended one, it seems...

Apparently, it's the first time since 1924 that Labour have won less votes than the Conservatives (or Unionists) in this town - in any election.

In this town?

It's a rural ward.

The thing I was reading mentioned Kilmarnock - due to it being in the Kilmarnock constituency (which includes Irvine Valley) in 1924, where the Tories last beat Labour. This is where I got confused...

[Clyde1998]

Highland, Aird and Loch Ness

Lib Dem 33.5 (+21.2)
SNP 32.5 (+4.6)
Con 15.2 (+8.3)
Ind 9.5
Green 9.3 (+9.3)

Lib Dem	1029	1099	1208	1511
SNP	1000	1097	1144	1167
Con	467	480	544
Ind	293	330
Green	287

Lib Dem gain Aird and Loch Ness from SNP

The Lib Dem surge can be explained by the Lib Dems gaining most of the votes from an independent candidate who didn't stand this time. Without knowing the local factors, it's hard to tell if this is down to the Lib Dems having a popular candidate in this seat or whether this is the first indication of a Lib Dem revival in Scotland.

[Clyde1998]

Yesterday, the Liberals gained the safe Conservative ward of Derwent (Ryedale) with a 23.7% swing. For the record that's the continuing Liberals, not the Liberal Democrats.

Liberal - 35.5% (+35.5)
Conservative - 34.8% (-11.
Independent - 15.5% (-13.0)
Lib Dem - 10.2% (-14.7)
Yorkshire First - 4.0% (+4.0)

Any ideas what happened there?