Democratic leaning Union: Trump could win OH/PA/MI/WI (user search)
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  Democratic leaning Union: Trump could win OH/PA/MI/WI (search mode)
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Author Topic: Democratic leaning Union: Trump could win OH/PA/MI/WI  (Read 1840 times)
#TheShadowyAbyss
TheShadowyAbyss
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Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -3.64

« on: January 30, 2016, 10:25:42 AM »

LOLOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL No
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#TheShadowyAbyss
TheShadowyAbyss
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*****
Posts: 12,033
Palestinian Territory, Occupied


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -3.64

« Reply #1 on: January 30, 2016, 10:34:59 AM »


Do you have serious analysis about these voters that doesn't invoke your own biased worldview? I'll yield on Wisconsin, primarily because Scott Walker has damaged the Republican Party for years to come in addition to a slew of other factors related to Trump's appeal and WI residents, but the others are completely legitimate, and even his opponents see it. I have no expectation of winning MI, but it's got to be a cause for concern amongst Democrats.

Scott Walker hurts republican chances in Wisconsin, and plus it's an inelastic state
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#TheShadowyAbyss
TheShadowyAbyss
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,033
Palestinian Territory, Occupied


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -3.64

« Reply #2 on: January 30, 2016, 10:39:17 AM »


Do you have serious analysis about these voters that doesn't invoke your own biased worldview? I'll yield on Wisconsin, primarily because Scott Walker has damaged the Republican Party for years to come in addition to a slew of other factors related to Trump's appeal and WI residents, but the others are completely legitimate, and even his opponents see it. I have no expectation of winning MI, but it's got to be a cause for concern amongst Democrats.

I can set my feelings about Trump aside to look at things realistically, even in a neutral year, Wisconsin, Michigan and PA are very inelastic states and with Trump's rhetoric, I don't see that changing.
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#TheShadowyAbyss
TheShadowyAbyss
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*****
Posts: 12,033
Palestinian Territory, Occupied


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -3.64

« Reply #3 on: January 30, 2016, 11:00:04 AM »

Anecdotally, I think this is definitely possible. Of course the same idiots that said TRUMP would be done by September are going to dismiss this, but who really cares what they think.

Tell me how Trump can expand the map in a general election? His hateful rhetoric won't sit well with minority voters and the dude comes off as far-right to many.
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#TheShadowyAbyss
TheShadowyAbyss
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,033
Palestinian Territory, Occupied


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -3.64

« Reply #4 on: January 30, 2016, 11:25:05 AM »

Anecdotally, I think this is definitely possible. Of course the same idiots that said TRUMP would be done by September are going to dismiss this, but who really cares what they think.

Tell me how Trump can expand the map in a general election? His hateful rhetoric won't sit well with minority voters and the dude comes off as far-right to many.

I think he'll move to the center in the general election and recast himself as a independent-minded, moderate dealmaker. He's already beginning to do this rhetorically, and has come out in recent weeks in support of moderate (even liberal!) proposals like Medicare negotiating drug prices that reinforce his "Dealmaker-in-Chief" brand. I don't think he'd be a 100% lock on the presidency, of course, but it's foolish to dismiss a guy who has proven to be such a skilled and capable politician.

Romney did the same thing, it didn't help him because the people didn't believe him, it will happen again to Trump
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#TheShadowyAbyss
TheShadowyAbyss
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,033
Palestinian Territory, Occupied


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -3.64

« Reply #5 on: January 30, 2016, 11:33:12 AM »

Anecdotally, I think this is definitely possible. Of course the same idiots that said TRUMP would be done by September are going to dismiss this, but who really cares what they think.

Tell me how Trump can expand the map in a general election? His hateful rhetoric won't sit well with minority voters and the dude comes off as far-right to many.

I think he'll move to the center in the general election and recast himself as a independent-minded, moderate dealmaker. He's already beginning to do this rhetorically, and has come out in recent weeks in support of moderate (even liberal!) proposals like Medicare negotiating drug prices that reinforce his "Dealmaker-in-Chief" brand. I don't think he'd be a 100% lock on the presidency, of course, but it's foolish to dismiss a guy who has proven to be such a skilled and capable politician.

Romney did the same thing, it didn't help him because the people didn't believe him, it will happen again to Trump

Romney is an unlikable tool who was the conservative in '08, a 'severely conservative' RINO in the '12 primaries, and literally stood for nothing in the GE. Additionally, Trump is not a gaffe machine. He knows the effects of everything he does when he does it. Romney wasn't coming out in support of government-run health care and such. He was an out-of-touch elitist who didn't care about the working man. Trump has the opposite base.

Trump realistically can't just up and moderate his views to win the general, once again repeating what I said. Both candidates were big government-run health care supporters, Trump to this day still supports it.
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#TheShadowyAbyss
TheShadowyAbyss
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,033
Palestinian Territory, Occupied


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -3.64

« Reply #6 on: January 30, 2016, 11:57:03 AM »
« Edited: January 30, 2016, 11:59:33 AM by #TheShadowyAbyss »

You're viewing things from a libertarian perspective and ignoring personalities.

Listen carefully to these thoughts -
Romney laid the framework for that Obamacare for those lazy moochers. (Or even, dare I say, "helping insurance companies make more money off us" for the somewhat more astute)
Trump is going to give us the greatest healthcare system in the world so we can get the services we deserve.

It's all about perception.

Where is the factual evidence on his health care plan?

Is it government ran? private system? how will he pay for it?
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#TheShadowyAbyss
TheShadowyAbyss
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,033
Palestinian Territory, Occupied


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -3.64

« Reply #7 on: January 30, 2016, 01:07:06 PM »

Romney is an unlikable tool who was the conservative in '08, a 'severely conservative' RINO in the '12 primaries, and literally stood for nothing in the GE. Additionally, Trump is not a gaffe machine. He knows the effects of everything he does when he does it. Romney wasn't coming out in support of government-run health care and such. He was an out-of-touch elitist who didn't care about the working man. Trump has the opposite base.

Hah. You give him too much credit. He has made plenty of gaffes, but he has gaffe-armor as thick as a tank. You shouldn't confuse his supporters not caring one bit with him having a flawless, expert strategy (though, in my opinion, his strategy has been expert for a primary election, but he has made plenty of mistakes and gaffes executing said strategy)

He'll try to weasle to the center and then claim he did it to show how bad other candidates could have been and then make an excuse for why he actually is a moderate/liberal
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#TheShadowyAbyss
TheShadowyAbyss
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,033
Palestinian Territory, Occupied


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -3.64

« Reply #8 on: January 30, 2016, 01:11:17 PM »

Romney is an unlikable tool who was the conservative in '08, a 'severely conservative' RINO in the '12 primaries, and literally stood for nothing in the GE. Additionally, Trump is not a gaffe machine. He knows the effects of everything he does when he does it. Romney wasn't coming out in support of government-run health care and such. He was an out-of-touch elitist who didn't care about the working man. Trump has the opposite base.

Hah. You give him too much credit. He has made plenty of gaffes, but he has gaffe-armor as thick as a tank. You shouldn't confuse his supporters not caring one bit with him having a flawless, expert strategy (though, in my opinion, his strategy has been expert for a primary election, but he has made plenty of mistakes and gaffes executing said strategy)

He'll try to weasle to the center and then claim he did it to show how bad other candidates could have been and then make an excuse for why he actually is a moderate/liberal

I'm skeptical that general election voters will be as receptive to his flip-floppery as the Republican base, but anything can happen.

Exactly, it doesn't work. The Democrats can get away with it not Pubs
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