Republican MI/MS/ID/HI election results thread (first results @8pm ET) (user search)
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  Republican MI/MS/ID/HI election results thread (first results @8pm ET) (search mode)
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Author Topic: Republican MI/MS/ID/HI election results thread (first results @8pm ET)  (Read 37699 times)
#TheShadowyAbyss
TheShadowyAbyss
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Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -3.64
« on: March 08, 2016, 09:30:53 AM »
Michigan says they expect very high turnout.
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#TheShadowyAbyss
TheShadowyAbyss
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*****
Posts: 12,033
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Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -3.64
« Reply #1 on: March 08, 2016, 09:52:11 AM »
Quote from: Damar on March 08, 2016, 09:35:14 AM
Quote from: chrisras on March 08, 2016, 04:59:29 AM
Trump will not win a state tonight.  Mark it down.  Kasich will win Michigan.  Cruz will win Mississippi.  I have Rubio winning Idaho and Hawaii.

If Trump loses Mississippi he won't win another state period.

Trump will easily win Mississippi. Last poll (even though it's pre-ST) had Trump at 41%, Cruz 17% Rubio 16% Kasich 8% with Carson taking 5%
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#TheShadowyAbyss
TheShadowyAbyss
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*****
Posts: 12,033
Palestinian Territory, Occupied


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -3.64
« Reply #2 on: March 08, 2016, 10:39:16 AM »
One question, where does everyone get the notion Rubio will win Hawaii? If anything the Hawaii GOP should easily be pro-Trump
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#TheShadowyAbyss
TheShadowyAbyss
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*****
Posts: 12,033
Palestinian Territory, Occupied


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -3.64
« Reply #3 on: March 08, 2016, 11:57:07 AM »
What areas of MI will be better for a Cruz/Kasich over a Trump? I'm assuming the Lower Peninsula.
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#TheShadowyAbyss
TheShadowyAbyss
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*****
Posts: 12,033
Palestinian Territory, Occupied


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -3.64
« Reply #4 on: March 08, 2016, 02:17:45 PM »
I'm a night owl so I'll be up for it.
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#TheShadowyAbyss
TheShadowyAbyss
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*****
Posts: 12,033
Palestinian Territory, Occupied


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -3.64
« Reply #5 on: March 08, 2016, 02:34:23 PM »
Quote from: whitesox130 on March 08, 2016, 02:32:39 PM
Disappointed about the weather. Wish there was bad weather in those states to drive down turnout.

Anyway, I am pulling for Trump to win in Michigan and lose in the other states. And I could see that happening: a narrow Trump win in Michigan, Cruz crushing Trump in Idaho and narrowly winning Mississippi, and Rubio in Hawaii.

CAN'T LASIK THE KASICH
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#TheShadowyAbyss
TheShadowyAbyss
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*****
Posts: 12,033
Palestinian Territory, Occupied


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -3.64
« Reply #6 on: March 08, 2016, 02:50:44 PM »
Mississippi is low energy today
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#TheShadowyAbyss
TheShadowyAbyss
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*****
Posts: 12,033
Palestinian Territory, Occupied


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -3.64
« Reply #7 on: March 08, 2016, 03:10:18 PM »
Quote from: (CT) The Free North on March 08, 2016, 03:00:10 PM
I am suddenly reconsidering my earlier statements regarding Kasich not having a chance.

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/707254289488617473


There is no question he has the momentum on the ground and if you couple Dem strategic voting with strategic voting from Rubio/Cruz it may be enough to put him over the top. Gun to my head, he still loses, but it may be very close.

Trump will win by 5-8%
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#TheShadowyAbyss
TheShadowyAbyss
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*****
Posts: 12,033
Palestinian Territory, Occupied


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -3.64
« Reply #8 on: March 08, 2016, 04:00:35 PM »
Wouldn't low turnout benefit Cruz in MS though?
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#TheShadowyAbyss
TheShadowyAbyss
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Posts: 12,033
Palestinian Territory, Occupied


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -3.64
« Reply #9 on: March 08, 2016, 04:03:02 PM »
First wave of exit polls will be released in 57 minutes.
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#TheShadowyAbyss
TheShadowyAbyss
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*****
Posts: 12,033
Palestinian Territory, Occupied


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -3.64
« Reply #10 on: March 08, 2016, 04:10:25 PM »
Quote from: Easter Bushie on March 08, 2016, 04:05:08 PM
How fast are MS and MI at counting normally?

MI counted 10% of the precincts before their 2nd hour closings in 2014.
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#TheShadowyAbyss
TheShadowyAbyss
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*****
Posts: 12,033
Palestinian Territory, Occupied


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -3.64
« Reply #11 on: March 08, 2016, 04:20:23 PM »
According to CNN, a lot of Democrats are apparently crossing over to vote for Kasich in MI and MS
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#TheShadowyAbyss
TheShadowyAbyss
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*****
Posts: 12,033
Palestinian Territory, Occupied


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -3.64
« Reply #12 on: March 08, 2016, 05:02:17 PM »
Early exit polls about to be released, obviously no topline numbers
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#TheShadowyAbyss
TheShadowyAbyss
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*****
Posts: 12,033
Palestinian Territory, Occupied


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -3.64
« Reply #13 on: March 08, 2016, 05:15:24 PM »
Mississippi 44% angry. 43% Dissatisfied

Michigan: 32% angry, 55% Dissatisfied

Mississippi: 76% Evangelical

Michigan: 49% Evangelical
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#TheShadowyAbyss
TheShadowyAbyss
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*****
Posts: 12,033
Palestinian Territory, Occupied


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -3.64
« Reply #14 on: March 08, 2016, 05:25:00 PM »
Michigan Qualities:

12% Can win in November
34% shares my values
28% tells it like it is
26% Can bring change


Most Important issue:
9% Immigration
35% Economy
22% Terrorism
32% Govt. Spending
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#TheShadowyAbyss
TheShadowyAbyss
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*****
Posts: 12,033
Palestinian Territory, Occupied


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -3.64
« Reply #15 on: March 08, 2016, 05:26:10 PM »
Quote from: Grad Students are the Worst on March 08, 2016, 05:25:23 PM
Not to ruin the fun, but keep in mind that there is a lot of variation within these answers.  Trump handily won merely dissatisfied voters in New Hampshire, but Rubio thumped him with that group in Virginia.  Obviously Trump would prefer an angrier electorate, all else being equal, but you can't extrapolate well with this data.

It's also worth considering that Cruz is, to a lesser extent than Trump, also dependent on voters who identify themselves as "angry."

Kasich doesn't do very well with these people so....
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#TheShadowyAbyss
TheShadowyAbyss
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*****
Posts: 12,033
Palestinian Territory, Occupied


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -3.64
« Reply #16 on: March 08, 2016, 05:28:49 PM »
Quote from: Castro on March 08, 2016, 05:27:26 PM
Good for Kasich I think:

Steven Portnoy @stevenportnoy  54s54 seconds ago
A quarter of voters in #MIGOP say they only made up their minds in the last few days, per early exit poll data.

Good for a 2nd place showing, Trump most likely dominated those who made up their minds longs ago, I can't remember the poll, but it suggested he was at 50% amongst those who decided longer than a month ago.
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#TheShadowyAbyss
TheShadowyAbyss
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*****
Posts: 12,033
Palestinian Territory, Occupied


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -3.64
« Reply #17 on: March 08, 2016, 05:31:53 PM »
Yuuuup, looks like Trump's probably gonna do very well here.
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#TheShadowyAbyss
TheShadowyAbyss
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Posts: 12,033
Palestinian Territory, Occupied


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -3.64
« Reply #18 on: March 08, 2016, 05:38:26 PM »
60% MS and 52% MI want an outsider? YUP, Trump's gonna win both.
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#TheShadowyAbyss
TheShadowyAbyss
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*****
Posts: 12,033
Palestinian Territory, Occupied


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -3.64
« Reply #19 on: March 08, 2016, 05:56:53 PM »
Quote from: Oldiesfreak1854 on March 08, 2016, 05:56:03 PM
I just got back from voting a few minutes ago.

Hopefully Kasich can pull it off, but doesn't seem like he will.
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#TheShadowyAbyss
TheShadowyAbyss
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*****
Posts: 12,033
Palestinian Territory, Occupied


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -3.64
« Reply #20 on: March 08, 2016, 06:06:38 PM »
Polling place in Warren, MI according to Jean Casarez is split between Kasich and Trump and virtually nothing from Cruz and Rubio according to impromptu interviews. Could mean nothing
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#TheShadowyAbyss
TheShadowyAbyss
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*****
Posts: 12,033
Palestinian Territory, Occupied


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -3.64
« Reply #21 on: March 08, 2016, 06:08:30 PM »
MS: 51% believe Illegals should be deported, 47% given legal status
MI: 56% believe illegals should be given legal status, 37% deported
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#TheShadowyAbyss
TheShadowyAbyss
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*****
Posts: 12,033
Palestinian Territory, Occupied


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -3.64
« Reply #22 on: March 08, 2016, 06:10:50 PM »
Quote from: TN volunteer on March 08, 2016, 06:09:35 PM
Cruz probably took enough anti-Trump votes away from Kasich to allow Trump to win by 4 or 5 or so.

Yup, that's what it's looking like to be, Cruz and Kasich splitting the Anti-Trump vote allowing Trump to cruise by.
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#TheShadowyAbyss
TheShadowyAbyss
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*****
Posts: 12,033
Palestinian Territory, Occupied


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -3.64
« Reply #23 on: March 08, 2016, 06:12:17 PM »

LOOOOL
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#TheShadowyAbyss
TheShadowyAbyss
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*****
Posts: 12,033
Palestinian Territory, Occupied


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -3.64
« Reply #24 on: March 08, 2016, 06:14:37 PM »
Quote from: Grad Students are the Worst on March 08, 2016, 06:11:42 PM

We're in silly-land at this point, but I'm a little surprised that Trump did so well in this subgroup, considering that at least some of these are probably anti-Trump voters who jumped ship from Rubio in the last week.

Looks consistent with the low-mid 30's guesstimate for Trump.

Which pretty much means Trump wins here...
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