The GOP's "Big 4"

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I posted these 8 as being the credible candidates in order of likelyhood:

1.Jeb Bush
2.Scott Walker
3.Rand Paul
4.John Kasich
5.Mike Huckabee
6.Ted Cruz
7.Chris Christie
8.Ben Carson

After the top 3:
4.John Kasich, doesn't seem to be running.
5.Mike Huckabee is just too loose lipped to win the nomination
His latest quote: Mike Huckabee says expecting Christians to accept same-sex marriage is “like asking someone who’s Jewish to start serving bacon-wrapped shrimp in their deli,” CNN reports.
He also called homosexuality part of a lifestyle, like drinking and swearing

While many Republicans no doubt agree with him, they also know that these days presidential candidates can't say those sorts of things publicly and expect to win.  There are many tea baggers who don't care about winning, but the bulk of the Republican Party primary voters still like to support the most winnable candidate in the general.

6.Ted Cruz, seems to have been pushed aside by Rand Paul for the Tea Party wing of the party.  Of course, Ted has far too big an ego to step aside and endorse Paul instead of running himself.

7.Chris Christie, probably can't win after his endless scandals, even if he somehow wasn't personally involved in any of them.  He still hired the people that were.

8.Ben Carson, as he's never run before we don't know how well he can do.  I'd call him the lone real wild card in the race.  Up against the top 2 though he probably can't beat them. In 2012 he may have won the nomination.

As for Ran Paul, while there are more Republican primary voters who are semi libertarian and semi isolationist as Paul is there is no question they aren't the majority of the party and if Rand Paul ends up in a two way race against either Jeb Bush or Scott Walker he'd be crushed.