Conservative Party of Canada Leadership Race Megathread-May 27th 2017

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Ah yes, Danny Williams is probably the most TRUMP like politician in Canadian history. Very high energy.

Bill VanderZalm!

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One PKP is bad enough. And needless to say, the leadership should always be in professional hands.

Michael Den Tandt's article is comedy gold.  One economic illiterate praising another economic illiterate.  If what Den Tandt said about O'Leary's analysis of company balance sheets is true, that would make O'Leary a competent micro economist, but government fiscal (and monetary) policy is macro economics.  Related obviously, but quite different.

Michael Den Tandt is by far the stupidest 'non partisan' columnist I've seen cover national politics in a long time. How did this guy get and keep his job?

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Its not at all clear to me what exactly this "split" between the forces behind Peter Mckay and the old Harper crowd would be over. As has been pointed out - back when the Reform Party was created in the late 80s there were clearly major issues that divided Reformers from mainstream PCs under Mulroney such as the Meech Lake/Charlottetown accords, the GST, bilingualism, immigration, abortion rights etc... none of those issues exist anymore. Seriously apart from the fact that McKay's roots are in the old PC party - I can't think of a single solitary substantive issue where he and Jason Kenney would disagree. McKay had a number of senior cabinet portfolios and he always seemed 100% in lockstep with what Harper wanted and we never even heard any rumours that he disagreed with anything.

There are clearly some old Reform party dinosaurs from Alberta who just don't like the idea of being anyone from Atlantic Canada who was ever in the PC party...but beyond that this seems like the "narcissism of small difference"

I agree totally with this.  Other than McKay was first elected as an M.P for the Progressive Conservative Party (likely just a party of convenience for him) I have no idea on what basis he is regarded as a Red Tory.  While he never held an economic portfolio, on both social and foreign policy issues he was about as conservative as a cabinet minister can be in the Canadian political context.

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I may want to ask a leadership question in a future EKOS poll. Here's who I would include:

Maxime Bernier
Kellie Leitch
Stephen Harper
Michael Chong
Tony Clement
Doug Ford
Peter MacKay
Kevin O'Leary
Erin O'Toole
Lisa Raitt
Michelle Rempel
Jason Kenney
Brad Wall

Anyone else I should include?

Being serious: Pierre Polievre.  I thought he had been mentioned as a potential candidate several times.   I think he would be a popular choice among the hyper partisans who want a fellow traveler as leader.

Just for fun: Jean Charest.

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Like Mulcair, Kellie Leitch regrets "failure to communicate"

http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/politics/kellie-leitch-rcmp-tip-line-1.3547430

"I'm doing this for the children" is the second last refuge of the scoundrel.

At the start of the interview this half wit Leitch brought up the meaningless talking point of 'freedom,' yet somehow 'freedom' doesn't include what people can and can't put into their own bodies.  I can understand restrictions on 'freedom' if it is for a genuine greater public interest, but their is no evidence that making marijuana illegal does anything to prevent the children who she claims are so precious to her from getting it, and nor does it mean that if she is really concerned about 'freedom' that in order to protect society where there is a legitimate threat, that the most restrictive means possible is used.

I find it hard to believe that any system that creates a black market that only makes the head of drug gangs wealthy and that still puts thousands of people in jail which potentially permanently ruins their lives, is the least restrictive option available.

This half wit Leitch also said that the legislation on assisted death is 'convoluted' but couldn't provide a single example of how it is, which leads me to believe that she's just throwing out another meaningless talking point.

Finally, this half wit Leitch also said that 'the government hasn't taken enough of a look at palliative care," but palliative care is a provincial responsibility.  

This half wit Leitch shouldn't even be a member of Parliament, yet alone a leader of a major party.

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Trost considering a run.

If Trost runs I wonder if his supporters will be called Trostkyites.

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I'd say Bernier is in a much better position than Trost and Chong.

There are a lot of dairy farmers in Bernier's riding. Could we actually have a politician who puts the public/national interest ahead of his constitutuents/his own interests?

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Kenney quitting federal politics seems to be still all rumors.  I haven't read any confirmation from him or Rona Ambrose.

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Also keep in mind there is no reason for the parties to merge. Alberta has no business having one conservative party, for democracy's sake. Wildrose doesn't need to merge to win the next election. And what would probably happen is Wildrose becomes the mainstream right of centre party, and the Tories die a quiet death. No need for a merger.

Where would the P.C voters go then?

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Clement will announce Tuesday.

In his gazebo?

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I like Lisa Raitt.

Has this person been mentioned: Dan Lindsay, former President of the Manitoba Association of Physicians and Surgeons indicated he might run back in April or May.  First saw his name mentioned in the new issue of the Epoch Times.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/dan-lindsay-conservative-leader-1.3600039

Calgary M.P, the dean of the Conservative caucus and the present critic for International Development Deepak Obhrai just announced he's running (so, he'll have to step down as the critic.)
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/deepak-obhrai-conservative-leadership-announcement-1.3680481

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Don Martin on the race.

I think Peter MacKay was a disaster in every portfolio he held.  A genuine example of the Peter Principle if you will.  On the other hand, at least Don Martin didn't refer to MacKay as a 'Red Tory' but acknowledged he fit in with 'Stephen Harper's harder right positions.'

I thought Maxime Bernier addressed his oversight in handling the foreign policy documents very well in his 'entrance interview,' unlike the inept Kellie Leitch and her complete failure in addressing taking part in the 'barbaric culture practices' press conference.

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Would I be wrong to assume that the conservative party candidates seem to be more focused on holding a solid opposition rather than trying to win and form a government in 2019?

I think it's too early in the process to determine what they are trying to collectively do.

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What exactly is Deepak Obhrai's trying to accomplish with his run?

1.Run for Conservative Leadership
2.??
3.Profits!

Just kidding, that's from the underpants gnome South Park program.

He's probably trying to connect with the "immigrant communities" of whom, many Conservatives believe, are natural Conservative voters.  It was, I believe, first generation Canadians (and maybe second generation Conservatives as well) that won Patrick Brown the Progressive Conservative leadership in Ontario.

Don Martin's article also mentioned Kellie Leitch apparently has some of the best Conservative organizers with her and is also likely to do best with the culture conservative voters.  While I can't know how the Liberals will govern over the next three years, I predict that if she wins the Conservative leadership, the Liberals will win the 250+ seats that many thought Paul Martin would win when he became leader and before the Sponsorship Scandal.

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LMAO. He'll get parts of the Prairies and that's it. In a GE, a strident, single-issue socon would get results closer to Alliance 2000 than Harper in 2004/15.

I just figured because he is the only so con and the only candidate west of Ontario he would have an opening in the leadership race not in 2019

Brad Trost has 0 name recognition. See the poll we did a few weeks ago. More people physically wrote in Rona Ambrose as their choice than pick Trost, who was one of the available choices in the poll.

What was Ontario Progressive Conservative Party Leader Patrick Brown's name recognition at the start of the Ontario Progressive Conservative leadership race?

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Is O'Leary still considering running?

I think he said something like that he wouldn't decide until the day of the filing deadline.

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O'Leary has only a superficial resemblance to Trump. He is much more urbane and socially liberal. If I was going to compare him to anyone in recent US politics he would be more like Steve Forbes. O'Leary has very hardline rightwing economic views but they are orthodox rightwing views, he would never bash NAFTA or TPP etc...

The prospective Conservative candidate who is really the most Trump-like would be Doug Ford

O'Leary is also a bombastic bully like Trump.

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Trost is in.

Why is he in Mongolia at the same time as his campaign team announces he's running?

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Small article in the Vancouver Sun, defeated Vancouver area M.P Andrew Saxton is considering a run as well, mainly to be a B.C candidate.  Saxton is something of a social moderate, I think, though his fellow North Shore area Conservative M.P John Weston (who also was defeated) was a higher profile social moderate.

Are all of these lesser names coming forward a belief from them that this is a wide open race, which would mean that they don't think that Peter MacKay is going to run?

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Lisa Raitt's not going to win, unless there is some underground super campaign going on, a la Patrick Brown.  Is there one?

Who will win then? No one has an organized super campaign.

Peter MacKay will probably win if he runs.  Otherwise I'd guess there are 4 early fairly equal front runners: Lisa Raitt, Tony Clement, Kellie Leitch and Maxime Bernier.

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Andrew Coyne wrote a decent article yesterday on the 'ideas primary' in the Conservative leadership race.  He believes Bernier is winning that, though that's obviously because he agrees with Bernier.

That said, and for what it's worth I do too.  I never understood this idea of those on the left who somehow believe that businesses that are owned by Canadians will be more loyal to Canada or to Canadian consumers. The sole loyalty of business people is to the bottom line, and the only way to ensure they behave responsibly is through competition.  So, opening up all Canadian markets to foreign competition is the way to make sure that Canadian owned businesses act in the best interests of Canadians.

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Lisa Raitt's not going to win, unless there is some underground super campaign going on, a la Patrick Brown.  Is there one?

Who will win then? No one has an organized super campaign.

Peter MacKay will probably win if he runs.  Otherwise I'd guess there are 4 early fairly equal front runners: Lisa Raitt, Tony Clement, Kellie Leitch and Maxime Bernier.

Maxime Bernier is not winning. He is a laughing stock in the province that know him.

Is he? He just got reelected in his Beauce riding with nearly 60% of the vote, and the latest poll of Conservative supporters had him at 10% nationally and I presume most of that came from Quebecers.

He may be 'laughing stock' among non Conservatives in Quebec, but he seems to be very well liked by Quebec conservatives.

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Lisa Raitt's not going to win, unless there is some underground super campaign going on, a la Patrick Brown.  Is there one?

Who will win then? No one has an organized super campaign.

Peter MacKay will probably win if he runs.  Otherwise I'd guess there are 4 early fairly equal front runners: Lisa Raitt, Tony Clement, Kellie Leitch and Maxime Bernier.

Maxime Bernier is not winning. He is a laughing stock in the province that know him.

Is he? He just got reelected in his Beauce riding with nearly 60% of the vote, and the latest poll of Conservative supporters had him at 10% nationally and I presume most of that came from Quebecers.

He may be 'laughing stock' among non Conservatives in Quebec, but he seems to be very well liked by Quebec conservatives.

You're wrong. He's not popular at all outside the Beauce. His economic proposals interest me but I have zero interest in putting anywhere near first preference.

Then how do you explain the poll that had him at 10% nationally?

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The same way I explain leadership polls that showed Christine Elliott and Gerard Kennedy winning.

If you're referring to name recognition that doesn't make sense.  Because you said they know Bernier and they don't like him.

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10% (actually, he is at 11%) isn't popular at all, really. But he is in 4th place, behind MacKay (might not run), O'Leary (probably won't run) and Kenney (will not run). So, who knows.

I'm picking Leitch as the underground Brownesque candidate right now. But that's based on circumstantial evidence.

Ehh... maybe it's soon to count out Raitt after all. We'll see. 

Did that poll also give Bernier's level of support in Quebec?  My guess is that if Bernier is at 11% nationally, he's probably at between 20-25% in Quebec.