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Unconditional Surrender Truman
Harry S Truman
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Posts: 14,139
« Reply #25 on: February 29, 2016, 07:48:13 PM »
« edited: February 29, 2016, 07:54:58 PM by Senator Truman »
Quote from: Senator Truman on January 13, 2016, 06:45:42 PM
2008: The Eternally Solid South

Sen. Evan Bayh / Sen. Thad Cochran [DEM] 29.7% votes, 16 States
Sen. Olympia Snowe / Gov. Tim Pawlenty [REP] 24.8% votes, 13 States
Rep. Dennis Kucinich / Rep. Bernie Sanders [SDP] 15.6% votes, 5 States + DC
Rep. Barack Obama / Sen. John McCain [IND] 12.7% votes, 6 states
Gov. Michael Bloomberg / Mr. Mark Zuckerberg [IND] 10.9% votes, 3 States
Gov. Brian Schweitzer / Rep. Jay Nixon [POP] 3.9% votes, 6 States
Gov. John Huntsman / Mr. Mitt Romney [MDP] 1.4% votes, 2 States

2012: Bye-Bye, Bayh

Gov. Lincoln Chaffee / Sen. Bruce Rauner [REP] 37.9% votes, 25 States
Pres. Evan Bayh / VP Thad Cochran [DEM] 24.2% votes, 14 States
Rep. Bernie Sanders / Rep. John Lewis [SDP] 17.5% votes, 5 States + DC
Mayor Rocky Anderson / Prof. Larry Lessig [IND] 14.4% votes, 0 States
Sen. Heidi Heitkamp / Gov. Joe Manchin [POP] 5.3% votes, 6 States
Gov. John Huntsman / Mr. Mitt Romney [MDP] 0.7% votes, 1 State
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Unconditional Surrender Truman
Harry S Truman
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*****
Posts: 14,139
« Reply #26 on: March 10, 2016, 12:00:15 AM »
1888

Pres. Grover Cleveland / Sen. Allen G. Thurman [DEM] 219 EV, 50% pv
Sen. Benjamin Harrison / Gov. Levi P. Morton [REP] 182 EV, 47% pv

1892

Sen. Russell A. Alger / Mr. Chauncey Depew [REP] 240 EV, 46% pv
Sen. David B. Hill / Rep. Adlai E. Stevenson [DEM] 163 EV, 32% pv
Judge Walter Q. Gresham / Sen. James H. Kyle [POP] 41 EV, 22% pv

1896

Gov. Claude Matthews / Rep. Arthur Sewall [DEM] 242 EV, 40% pv
Pres. Russell A. Alger / VP Chauncey Depew [REP] 148 EV, 36% pv
Sen. William J. Bryan / Rep. Thomas Watson [POP] 57 EV, 27% pv

1900

Gov. William McKinley / Gov. Theodore Roosevelt [REP] 217 EV, 39% pv
Sen. William J. Bryan / Rep. Eugene Debs [POP] 122 EV, 31% pv
Pres. Claude Matthews / VP Arthur Sewall [DEM] 107 EV, 29% pv

Congressional Populists join Republicans to elect McKinley in the House on the 15th ballot; in exchange, Bryan is named Secretary of the Interior.

1904

Pres. William McKinley / VP Theodore Roosevelt [REP] 310 EV, 51% pv
Judge Alton B, Parker / Sen. Henry G. Davis [DEM] 120 EV, 23% pv
Rep. Thomas Watson / Rep. Eugene Debs [POP] 46 EV, 26% pv

1908

Gov. Eugene Debs / Gov. Ashton C. Shallenberger [POP] 242 EV, 45% pv
Sen. Charles W. Fairbanks / Sen. Philander Knox [REP] 164 EV, 39% pv
Sen. George Gray / Rep. Oscar Underwood [DEM] 77 EV, 16% pv
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Unconditional Surrender Truman
Harry S Truman
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*****
Posts: 14,139
« Reply #27 on: March 12, 2016, 12:36:40 AM »
1867: Lee's Last Service
Robert E. Lee's victory at the Battle of Sharpsburg in September 1862 effectively brought an end to the American Civil War and established the independence of the Confederate States of America. After routing the Union Army under George B. McClellan, Lee moved upon the Northern government at Washington, D.C. - while President Lincoln and his cabinet managed to escape, the conquest of the nation's capitol shattered Northern resolve to continue the war. Peace negotiations held at London in 1863 formally brought hostilities to an end. Under the terms of the Treaty, the Union government agreed to revoke its claims to Western Virginia in exchange for the Confederate evacuation of Maryland; while the Davis government initially insisted that Kentucky and Missouri be "returned" to Southern control as well, Union military victories in the Western theatre during the early months of 1862 had effectively expelled the Confederate presence in those states. U.S. Ambassador Charles F. Adams outmaneuvered the Confederates, pretending to insist that Tennessee be ceded to the Union (as the state was still partially under Union control) and then "compromised" by exchanging Tennessee for Confederate recognition of the Union governments in Kentucky and Missouri.

Just as the Jay Treaty had divided Americans in the 1790s, the Treaty of London was greeted with contempt by the Southern public, who viewed it as surrender to a weaker foe. President Davis, who in January 1863 had been hailed as the "Savior of the Southern people," was by 1864 "unpopular, avoided, and suspected": he would eventually succumb to an assassin's bullet two years after the end of the war. His successor, Alexander Stephens, fared little better in the court of public opinion, where he was lambasted for his refusal to go to war with Mexico. By 1867, only one man had the necessary respect to unite the divided country: General Robert E. Lee of Virginia. Though in poor health and loath to leave retirement, Lee reluctantly agreed to stand for the presidency on a cross party ticket. While a slate of un-pledged Whig electors won votes in East Tennessee and Western Virginia, where the Unionist sentiment remained in weakened form, Lee swept the electoral college and racked up large majorities in every state, and was inaugurated as the third Confederate president on February 22, 1868.


Gen. Robert E. Lee / Sen. Robert W. Barnwell [IND] 109 EV, 97% pv

1873: There is Civil Strife in Heaven
The unity born from Robert E. Lee's election was short lived: in October 1870, the revered general passed away in Richmond, Virginia. His successor, Robert W. Barnwell, was a daring but tactless politician whose abrasive personality and uncompromising nature led to the birth of the Confederacy's first party system. Barnwell's supporters, who approved of his bold (and successful) efforts to wrest Cuba from Spain and his opposition to tariffs of any kind, formed the Democratic Party (a continuation of the Jacksonian party of old); anti-administration Congressmen, who opposed expansion and favored efforts to expand Southern industry, became known as the American Party (a coalition of former Whigs and personal enemies of Barnwell).


Sen. Thomas C. Bocock / Sen. Herschel V. Johnson [DEM] 73 EV, 58% pv
Gov. Henry R. Jackson / Sen. Judah P. Benjamin [AMP] 36 EV, 42% pv

1879: This First Parting Among Us
While President Bocock continued Barnwell's expansionist policies, even developing plans for a Confederate invasion of Nicaragua, his refusal to entertain the possibility of war with Mexico (due to Emperor Maximillian's ties to France, an important trading partner of the Confederacy) led Texas to secede from the Confederacy in 1875, taking with her the South's territories in New Mexico and Arizona. In 1877, the Americans took control of the House of Representatives for the first time, paving the way for Zebulon Vance's bid for the presidency in 1879.


Gov. Zebulon Vance / Gen. James Longstreet [AMP] 56 EV, 54% pv
Gov. Josiah A. P. Campbell / Sen. Robert E. Withers [DEM] 45 EV, 46% pv

1885: Passing By Old Pete
A capable and reasonably popular administrator, Zebulon Vance caused little excitement during his size years in office. The American Party hoped this popularity would elevate Vice President James Longstreet to the top position: but Longstreet, an uninspiring campaigner, was eclipsed by a fellow veteran of the Civil War: General P. G. T. Beauregard.


Gen. P.G.T. Beauregard / Gov. Roger A. Pryor [DEM] 57 EV, 51% pv
VP James Longstreet / Sen. Robert L. Caruthers [AMP] 44 EV, 49%

1891: Pride Cometh Before the Fall
Even by generous standards, Beauregard's presidency was a disaster for the Confederacy. His ill-conceived attempt to seize Nicaragua did enormous damage to the Confederate economy, causing industrial Virginia to secede in 1888. Virginia was followed by Tennessee the following year (where Knoxville Unionists seized control of the state government and aligned themselves with the Peoria Confederacy) and North Carolina in 1890. Desperate, the South turned to James Longstreet in hopes that Lee's faithful lieutenant could do what his old commander had done in 1867 and unite the country.


VP James Longstreet / Gov. Marcus L. Foster [AMP] 39 EV, 59% pv
Sen. Randall L. Gibson / Rep. Patrick Walsh [DEM] 19 EV, 40% pv
Unpledged Electors [IND] 0 EV, 1% pv

1898: Trial by Fire
Concluding that the heart of the South's troubles lay with the continued existence of slavery, which strangled economic growth and prevented the Confederacy from becoming a viable industrial economy, President Longstreet abolished slavery by executive order in 1893. After Southern planters threatened to remove him from office by force, Longstreet dissolved the Congress on May 1 and declared a state of martial law. Instead of stemming the chaos, Longstreet's "May Proclamation" plunged the country into civil war: a rump government established at Jackson, Mississippi denounced Longstreet's Administration as "devoid of any lawful power of coercion" and declared Senate President Pro-Temp. Oscar Underwood "Acting President." Longstreet, however, had the military on his side: by 1898, the rebellion had been subdued and order restored throughout the Confederacy. A new Constitution drafted by Longstreet and his Secretary of War, Thomas E. Watson, that outlawed secession, extended full political (but not social) equality to blacks, granted women the right to vote, and greatly expanded the powers of the presidency was adopted that year. Longstreet's supporters, organized under the banner of the People's Party, nominated him for an unprecedented second term as president: facing only token opposition, he won in a landslide.


Pres. James Longstreet / Sec. Thomas E. Watson [POP] 88% votes
Rep. John H. Bankhead / Mayor Walter C. Flower [IND] 7% votes
Others [Various] 5% votes
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Unconditional Surrender Truman
Harry S Truman
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*****
Posts: 14,139
« Reply #28 on: March 17, 2016, 11:09:40 PM »
« Edited: March 18, 2016, 05:48:12 PM by Senator Truman »
2016 Primaries: The Frontrunners vs. the Underdogs

Clinton and Trump
Trump Only (No Dem primary)
Clinton and Other GOP
Trump and Other Dem
Other Dem and Other GOP
Other Dem Only (No GOP primary)
Other GOP Only (No Dem primary)
No Vote
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Unconditional Surrender Truman
Harry S Truman
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*****
Posts: 14,139
« Reply #29 on: March 28, 2016, 09:48:34 PM »

Franklin D. Roosevelt / John N. Garner  [1936] 394 EV
Ronald W. Reagan / George H. W. Bush [1984] 144 EV

The closest state was Massachusetts - Roosevelt outpolled Reagan by a bare .005 points.
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Unconditional Surrender Truman
Harry S Truman
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*****
Posts: 14,139
« Reply #30 on: March 31, 2016, 08:38:44 PM »
« Edited: March 31, 2016, 08:43:58 PM by Senator Truman »
CLINTON WINS ELECTION; CREDITS VICTORY TO '272 FIREWALL'
"Atlas Was Right," Say Pundits
Mormons Support Clinton; Great Relationship w/Blacks Wins Trump D.C.

Sec. Hillary Clinton / Sec. Julian Castro (DEM) 272 EV, 45% pv
Mr. Donald TRUMP / Sen. Marco Rubio (REP) 263 EV, 44% pv
Mrs. Jill Stein / Sen. Bernie Sanders (GREEN) 3 EV, 16% pv
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Unconditional Surrender Truman
Harry S Truman
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*****
Posts: 14,139
« Reply #31 on: April 23, 2016, 10:49:52 PM »
1924: Harding Lives

Gov. James M. Cox / Gov. Charles W. Bryan [DEM] 406 EV, 55% pv
Pres. Warren G. Harding / VP Calvin Coolidge [REP] 125 EV, 45% pv
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Unconditional Surrender Truman
Harry S Truman
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*****
Posts: 14,139
« Reply #32 on: April 24, 2016, 01:18:54 PM »
Quote from: Higgs on April 24, 2016, 02:54:41 AM
Quote from: Senator Truman on April 23, 2016, 10:49:52 PM
1924: Harding Lives

Gov. James M. Cox / Gov. Charles W. Bryan [DEM] 406 EV, 55% pv
Pres. Warren G. Harding / VP Calvin Coolidge [REP] 125 EV, 45% pv

How does this happen? Harding was incredibly popular while he was President.
Fallout from Teapot Dome plus LaFollette defecting to support Cox (he did something similar in 1912 when he backed Wilson over Taft). Really, though, it's just an experiment with universal swing to see what a Democratic landslide in '24 would have looked like.
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Unconditional Surrender Truman
Harry S Truman
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*****
Posts: 14,139
« Reply #33 on: May 11, 2016, 03:09:35 PM »
Quote from: Senator Smith (Labor-MA) on May 11, 2016, 12:58:30 PM
How would Bachmann have won Nebraska without winning a single CD?
It's possible, seeing as all three CDs are shaded at 30%. I'm guessing the results looked something like this:

CD1   33% D, 32% R, 20% I, 15% G
CD2   20% D, 32% R, 15% I, 33% G
CD3   18% D, 32% R, 33% I, 17% G
TOT    24% D, 32% R, 23% I, 22% G
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Unconditional Surrender Truman
Harry S Truman
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*****
Posts: 14,139
« Reply #34 on: May 18, 2016, 04:42:03 PM »

Sen. Evan Bayh / Sen. Jeff Merkley [DEM] 448 EV, 57.6% pv
Mr. Donald Trump / Sen. Scott Brown [REP] 90 EV, 38.2% pv
Gov. Gary Johnson / Mr. Austin Petersen [LIB] 0 EV, 2.8% pv
Others 1.4%
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Unconditional Surrender Truman
Harry S Truman
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*****
Posts: 14,139
« Reply #35 on: May 20, 2016, 10:16:55 PM »
1916: The "Boy Orator" Rides the Bull Moose

Gov. Charles E. Hughes / Fmr. VP Charles W. Fairbanks [REP] 356 EV, 41% pv
Pres. Woodrow Wislson / VP Thomas R. Marshall [DEM] 153 EV, 36% pv
Sec. William J. Bryan / Mr. Henry Ford [PRO] 22 EV, 18% pv
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Unconditional Surrender Truman
Harry S Truman
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*****
Posts: 14,139
« Reply #36 on: June 15, 2016, 04:41:16 PM »
« Edited: June 15, 2016, 04:57:34 PM by Senate Speaker Truman »

Clinton and Trump (25)     Clinton only (5)    Trump only (11)     Neither (11)

* Republican primary/caucus occurred after Trump became the presumptive nominee
^ No Republican primary/caucus
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Unconditional Surrender Truman
Harry S Truman
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*****
Posts: 14,139
« Reply #37 on: June 15, 2016, 04:58:00 PM »
Quote from: LLR on June 15, 2016, 04:57:00 PM
Quote from: Senate Speaker Truman on June 15, 2016, 04:41:16 PM

Clinton and Trump (26)     Clinton only (4)    Trump only (11)     Neither (11)

* Republican primary/caucus occurred after Trump became the presumptive nominee
^ No Republican primary/caucus

Texas didn't vote for Trump...
How did I miss that? Tongue Anyway, it's been fixed.
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Unconditional Surrender Truman
Harry S Truman
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*****
Posts: 14,139
« Reply #38 on: June 22, 2016, 06:31:43 PM »
PRESIDENTS of the UNITED STATES
42. William Jefferson Clinton [Democratic-Arkansas] 1993-1998
43. Albert Arnold Gord [Democratic-Tennessee] 1998-2001
44. George Walker Bush [Republican-Texas] 2001-2005
45. Alan Stuart Franken [Democratic-Minnessota] 2005-2013
46. Richard Andrew Gephardt [Democratic-Missouri] 2013-incumbent

1996: Popular Incumbent defeats Fringe Challenger

Pres. William J. Clinton / VP Albert A. Gore [DEM] 521 EV, 61% pv
Rev. Patrick J. Buchanan / Rep. Jack F. Kemp [REP] 17 EV, 37% pv

2000: Personable Southern Governor defeats "His Accidency"

Gov. George W. Bush / Sen. Elizabeth Dole [REP] 311 EV, 50% pv
Pres. Albert A. Gore / Gov. Howard Dean [DEM] 227 EV, 48% pv

2004: Actor-Turned-Politician Capitalizes on Foreign Policy Blunders

Gov. Alan S. Franken / Rep. Richard A. Gephardt [DEM] 385 EV, 51% pv
Pres. George W. Bush / VP Elizabeth Dole [REP] 153% EV, 41% pv
Sen. Joseph Lieberman / Sen. John S. McCain [IND] 0 EV, 6% pv

2008: Daring VP Pick Fails to Save Challenger

Pres. Alan S. Franken / VP Richard A. Gephardt [DEM] 418 EV, 59% pv
Fmr. VP Elizabeth Dole / Gov. Sarah Palin [REP] 120 EV, 41% pv

2012: Veep Rides Incumbent's Popularity to Victory

VP Richard A. Gephardt / Sen. Joe Biden [DEM] 348 EV, 53% pv
Gov. Timothy J. Pawlenty / Sen. Lindsey Graham [REP] 190 EV, 46% pv
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Unconditional Surrender Truman
Harry S Truman
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*****
Posts: 14,139
« Reply #39 on: June 22, 2016, 06:55:48 PM »
A smaller recession happens four years earlier, just before the 2004 election. Ensuing financial reforms prevent a larger "great recession" from occurring in 2008.
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Unconditional Surrender Truman
Harry S Truman
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*****
Posts: 14,139
« Reply #40 on: July 23, 2016, 04:17:29 PM »
Were Johnson to carry every state where his share of the vote in 2012 was equal or greater than his share of the national popular vote (0.99%), this would be the map:


Gov. Gary Johnson / Gov. Bill Weld [LIB] 288 EV
Sec. Hillary Clinton / Sen. Tim Kaine [DEM] 187 EV
Mr. Donald Trump / Gov. Mike Pence [REP] 63 EV
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Unconditional Surrender Truman
Harry S Truman
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Posts: 14,139
« Reply #41 on: August 19, 2016, 05:19:25 PM »
1812: Madison's Folly
A controversial decision to seek war with Britain topples the incumbent president.

Fusion: DeWitt Clinton and Jared Ingersoll     114 EV
Republican: James Madison and Elbridge Gerry     103 EV

1816: Another Man's Crown
Unable to end the war with Britain, Clinton nevertheless becomes a national hero amidst the patriotic spirit that follows the conflict. His victory cements the union of Federalists and Clinton Republicans under the banner of the National Republican Party

National Republican: DeWitt Clinton and Jared Ingersoll     142 EV
Democratic Republican: William H. Crawford and Andrew Jackson     78 EV

1820: One Man's Panic is Another Man's Pleasure
The Panic of 1819 dooms Nationalist prospects for a third term and fuel the rise of a new political giant.

Democratic Republican: Henry Clay and John C. Calhoun     140 EV
National Republican: Richard Stockton and Daniel D. Tompkins     93 EV

1824: Henry the Unshakable
A prosperous and peaceful country grants Clay a second term.

Democratic Republican: Henry Clay and John C. Calhoun     220 EV
National Republican: Nathan Sanford and Richard Rush     41 EV
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Unconditional Surrender Truman
Harry S Truman
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*****
Posts: 14,139
« Reply #42 on: August 30, 2016, 07:36:21 PM »
1880: Tempt Us Not Thrice

Democratic: Winfield S. Hancock and William H. English   235 EV, 48.7% pv
Republican: Ulysses S. Grant and John Sherman   134 EV, 48.2% pv
Greenback: Benjamin Butler and Barzillai Chambers   0 EV, 3.1% pv
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Unconditional Surrender Truman
Harry S Truman
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*****
Posts: 14,139
« Reply #43 on: October 08, 2016, 09:42:20 PM »

John Bel Edwards and Evan Bayh (Democratic) 498 Electoral Votes, 54% popular votes
Donald J. Trump and Mike Pence (Republican) 40 Electoral Votes, 39% popular votes
Gary Johnson and William Weld (Libertarian) 0 Electoral Votes, 3% popular votes
Jill Stein and Ajamu Baraka (Green) 0 Electoral Votes, 3% popular votes
Evan McMullin and Mindy Finn (Independent) 0 Electoral Votes, 1% popular vote
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Unconditional Surrender Truman
Harry S Truman
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*****
Posts: 14,139
« Reply #44 on: October 12, 2016, 06:52:58 PM »
1992: What's that Giant Sucking Sound?

H. Ross Perot and James Stockdale (Independent) 445 Electoral Votes, 39% popular votes
George H.W. Bush and J. Danforth Quayle (Republican) 84 Electoral Votes, 31% popular votes
William J. Clinton and Albert A. Gore (Democratic) 9 Electoral Votes, 25% popular votes
Others (Various) 0 Electoral Votes, 5% popular votes
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Unconditional Surrender Truman
Harry S Truman
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*****
Posts: 14,139
« Reply #45 on: November 12, 2016, 02:22:50 PM »

Governor Roy Cooper /and/ Governor Greg Stanton (Democratic) 350 EV, 52%
Vice President Mike Pence /and/ Senator Tom Cotton (Republican) 188 EV, 47%
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Unconditional Surrender Truman
Harry S Truman
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*****
Posts: 14,139
« Reply #46 on: November 15, 2016, 06:44:35 PM »
2018 Senatorial Elections

Republicans   55 seats (+3)
Democrats   43 seats (-3)
Independents   2 seats (--)

2017-2018 Gubernatorial Elections

Republicans   26 governorships (-9)
Democrats   24 governorships (+9)
Independents   1 governorship (--)
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Unconditional Surrender Truman
Harry S Truman
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*****
Posts: 14,139
« Reply #47 on: November 16, 2016, 09:45:09 PM »
1980: Carter Survives

President James E. Carter /and/ Vice President Walter Mondale (Democratic) 334 EV, 49% popular votes
Governor Ronald W. Reagan /and/ Representative George H.W. Bush (Republican) 204 EV, 47% popular votes
Others (Various) 0 EV, 4% popular votes
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Unconditional Surrender Truman
Harry S Truman
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*****
Posts: 14,139
« Reply #48 on: November 29, 2016, 11:02:05 PM »
She has redrawn the boundaries of the 50 states, resulting in Democrats winning the electoral college in 2016.
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Unconditional Surrender Truman
Harry S Truman
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*****
Posts: 14,139
« Reply #49 on: December 05, 2016, 08:04:49 PM »
United States general election, 2016
All 435 seats in the House of Commons
218 seats needed for a majority

Democrats (Hillary Clinton) 214 seats, 48.0% votes
Republicans (Donald Trump) 213 seats, 46.1% votes
Libertarians (Gary Johnson˚) 6 seats, 3.3% votes
Greens (Jill Stein˚) 1 seat, 1.1% votes
Independents (Various) 1 seat, 0.5% votes

˚ defeated
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