Bold Predictions for the Next Few Cycles

[bobloblaw]

Given the recently bumped thread, let me share some of my bold Predictions for the next few cycles:

-The Democrats do not reclaim the House for at least another 15 years
-2016 sees no net change in the Senate, with NV going GOP and IL Dem.
-In 2018, The Republicans pick up Senate seats in Montana, North Dakota, Missouri, Indiana, West Virginia, and Florida, just enough for a filibuster-proof majority.  King caucuses with the GOP for 61.
-2016 is the year that Pennsylvania goes red in a Presidential Election- doing so while Virginia is blue.
-Scott Walker wins all of the Romney states plus Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Iowa, and Wisconsin, for a comfortable victory over Hillary Clinton.  He chooses Carly Fiorina to be VP.
-2018 is a weird election, as Republicans make significant Senate gains (getting a filibuster-proof majority) despite Democrats winning back Governorships in Wisconsin, Florida, Michigan, Massachusetts, Maryland, Illinois and Nevada.  Republicans take Kentucky in 2015, West Virginia in 2016 and Alaska (from the Independents) in 2018, making the Nation's governorships much more even.
-Despite having a supermajority, Mitch McConnell retires before the 2020 elections and is replaced as majority leader by Lamar Alexander, giving the Tea Party someone else to hate.
-In 2020, President Walker is comfortably re-elected, but the Republicans lose their supermajority, losing seats in North Carolina and Colorado, while picking up none.
-2022 is an absolute bloodbath for Republicans, losing Senate seats in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, Florida, New Hampshire, and Ohio.  Collins also retires mid-term and is replaced by a Democrat.  With King continuing to caucus with the Republicans, they hold a 52-48 majority.  The Republicans also only win 225 House seats and fire Boehner as Speaker after a 12-year run.
-In 2024, Joe Manchin runs for President as an Independent and wins 25% of the vote.  Bill Haslam wins the election, narrowly defeating Mark Warner and Joe Manchin.  However, the Democrats win a Senate seat in Nevada, narrowing the GOP majority to 51-49.
-In 2026, the Democrats take their first Senate majority since 2014 and, in 2028, defeat President Haslam with someone that none of us have ever heard of yet (probably someone about 20-25 years old today).

Now, as I got far out, it became a complete guessing game, but the point is that I expect a major Republican majority to develop soon.  But, like everything, it will not be permanent.

Not all those things can come true. If the GOP wins in 2016, they wont pick up a bunch of Senate seats in 2018.

The most realistic prediction is the DEMs become the party of the WH and the GOP the party of everything else, with the Senate in Dem hands 1/3 of the time. Kind of like the 1968-92 period.

This does mean that when the GOP does win the WH, they will be in an excellent position for major conservative reform, given their large congressional majorities.

[bobloblaw]

Here's a prediction (though I don't think it will be all that bold): Hillary's coat tails will be overrated.

There wont be the Hillary coattails that Obama had in 2008 and 2012.

She is more dependent on voters who usually vote GOP, especially GOP women, making ticket slitting ore likely in 2016, than in 2012. Obama drove turnout very high among people who were committed liberals in down ticket races. That coalition will be weaker in 2012 and there will be more ticket splitters

I can see Ayotte winning reelection easily with Hillary carrying NH. I think Portman, Toomey and the FL-GOP candidate can all win. IL and WI are the seats the GOP will likely lose.

[bobloblaw]

Here's a prediction (though I don't think it will be all that bold): Hillary's coat tails will be overrated.

There wont be the Hillary coattails that Obama had in 2008 and 2012.

She is more dependent on voters who usually vote GOP, especially GOP women, making ticket slitting ore likely in 2016, than in 2012. Obama drove turnout very high among people who were committed liberals in down ticket races. That coalition will be weaker in 2012 and there will be more ticket splitters

I can see Ayotte winning reelection easily with Hillary carrying NH. I think Portman, Toomey and the FL-GOP candidate can all win. IL and WI are the seats the GOP will likely lose.

The Dems will capture the Senate again in 2016,  netting 4 seats is a real possibility.  And Walker or Jeb are having the same problems as Romney did, losing in states like OH, PA, WI and IL.  The most likely scenario is Toomey surviving and Dems winning FL.

I could see 4. But with Manchin, Donnelly and Heitkamp 50-52 seats wont do them much good. OH and PA arent IL and WI. Ayotte will win in NH, NH is the state most likely to ticket split. Dems arent likely to do well in FL if there is any type of primary between Grayson and Murphy.