Welcome to the Runoff!: LA 2015 Liveblog

[RFayette 🇻🇦]

This is an interesting positive ad run on behalf of Edwards. It never mentions his party, and you'd think he'd be a Republican just from watching it.

Reminds me of an ad that Mike McIntyre ran in 2012.

Those are my kinds of Democrats!

[RFayette 🇻🇦]

Excellent, Miles! So, SD-35 may pretend to be the most conservative state Senate District in Louisiana? Not surprising that even such (formerly) conservative Democrat as Fannin had difficulties there. And with "D" letter after name he would surely lose...

Some further observations:

1. Almost all Edwards/Republican districts (all, except SD-27) are not far from either New Orlean or Baton Rouge, many of them - suburban.

2. Democrats must have good chances in SD-08, when Alario retires in 2019.  SD-17 and SD-27 - another matter. Both  Ward and Johns are formerly conservative Democrats, now - relatively "moderate" Republicans, both fit their districts, and may run for reelection. I would presume - under normal situation they will get reelected.

3. Democrats have only 3 relatively "difficult" seats in state Senate, with the most problematic in 2019, probably, being SD-28, because it will be open. Smith and, especially, Milkovich, have theoretically even more difficult districts, but both fits them well, and both may run for reelection...

4. Wish that Democratic candidate in SD-12 (formerly - Nevers district) would be able to copy JBE percentages there...

Which is an illustration of the point that I've been trying to make for quite some time on the Forum that the resurrection of Democrats in the South is dependent on the voting-habits of upper-middle class, suburban Whites rather than racial minorities, the working poor or "Blue Dogs". 

For comparative purposes, here is how I think a "JBE-type" Democratic victory would occur in Mississippi



This map uses the scale that Miles uses in his maps, btw

This map still has Rankin and DeSoto, which have a lot of wealthy suburban whites, going R.  Are there a lot of those types of voters on the Eastern edge of the state, based on your map?