lol at this delusional strawmanning. Still no argument as to why the f- a Kerry 2004 state would go GOP in 2016 for no damn reason other than it makes it convenient to imagine a scenario where Hillary loses.
A 2016 recession is a small but real possibility, of course. I agree that the GOP is heavily the underdog in New Hampshire and any other Kerry '04 state, but there are a lot of unknowns that will come into play before the election.
My personal opinion is that Hillary will get 1 term and due to a 2019 recession, will get booted by a moderate GOPer.
That's were things start getting tricky.
Obviously, it depends on who gets nominated in 2016. If Walker gets nominated and loses narrowly (less than 4 points) to Clinton, which I see as a distinct possibility, a fairly moderate Republican would have a very good chance in 2020 and would be all but certain to win with a 2019 or 2020 recession. If a "moderate" (Jeb, Rubio, or Kasich) wins in 2016 but loses the general, a conservative Republican would likely win in 2020 for the nomination, probably a Walker or Cruz type character. With a 2019 recession, I'd predict Clinton would be a slight underdog, though it would be about 2015.
If Trump wins the nomination or runs 3rd party, then I have no clue what the GOP will do in 2016.