Clinton moves to defend Rust Belt blue states (MI/WI/PA/OH)

[RFayette 🇻🇦]

LJube is just having his fun.

I do believe Michigan will trend Republican pretty significantly with Trump on top of the ticket.  However, Romney lost Michigan by 10 in 2012, and I have a hard time seeing Trump being able to make up the whole margin.  My personal ceiling for Trump in MI is probably losing by 3 or 4, but it's probably in his best interest to force Hillary to compete there.

[RFayette 🇻🇦]

Trump polls terribly in Wisconsin and Michigan. He almost always has. Look at Wisconsin's: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/wi/wisconsin_trump_vs_clinton-5659.html

Sure, one or two early polls aren't worth worrying over, on their own, but that many polls taken since his campaign picked up steam showing such steep losses shows a pretty good trend: They didn't like him 8 months ago and they sure as hell don't now. Michigan isn't really any better, save for that 1-2 month stretch half over half a year ago. Their average is still +10pts, so same issue as Wisconsin. In addition to that, demographic shifts are continuing to shrink the working class white voter base in these states, and minority turnout & population growth will again help hinder Republican success in both of these states.

This seems to be a common case of Trumpitis, where people suffer from possible fever-induced delusions that Trump is an actual viable candidate who can go more than 5 minutes without offending someone, lying or switching positions.

I agree that Wisconsin is a bad fit for Trump - the WoW counties are about as anti-Trump as you can get outside of Mormon country.  I do think conflating Michigan and Wisconsin is wrong, though.

Keep in mind, if Wisconsin and Michigan vote at the same margin, that would almost certainly mean Michigan *trended* Republican.  Michigan is a tougher battle for Republicans because Democrats have a bigger built-in advantage there than in Wisconsin, but I think Trump will do well relative to other Republicans in Michigan.  I'd have to see polls post Trump-surge (after Indiana primary) to see where he is in Michigan then, but I think Trump will be able to keep the margin of loss down to 5-7% or so, assuming the national margins have improved (as is reflected in recent polling).

[RFayette 🇻🇦]

LJube is just having his fun.

I do believe Michigan will trend Republican pretty significantly with Trump on top of the ticket.  However, Romney lost Michigan by 10 in 2012, and I have a hard time seeing Trump being able to make up the whole margin.  My personal ceiling for Trump in MI is probably losing by 3 or 4, but it's probably in his best interest to force Hillary to compete there.

Romney was a very poor fit for working class voters. He is the antithesis of Trump, Trump being a real-estate developer and the ultimate job creator, and Romney being a vulture capitalist (Gordon Gekko) and job destroyer.

There will also be some traditionally Dem working class voters switching to Trump and their votes count twice for the purpose of reducing the margin.

If the popular vote margin became closer (within one point or so - as is generally expected of this election), Trump would be in a very good position to even win Michigan, while Ohio and Pennsylvania would be almost guaranteed.

This is true, but I do think there will be some Romney -> Hillary shifts among white suburban voters, especially in the wealthier Detroit suburbs.

[RFayette 🇻🇦]

I agree that Wisconsin is a bad fit for Trump - the WoW counties are about as anti-Trump as you can get outside of Mormon country.  I do think conflating Michigan and Wisconsin is wrong, though.

Keep in mind, if Wisconsin and Michigan vote at the same margin, that would almost certainly mean Michigan *trended* Republican.  Michigan is a tougher battle for Republicans because Democrats have a bigger built-in advantage there than in Wisconsin, but I think Trump will do well relative to other Republicans in Michigan.  I'd have to see polls post Trump-surge (after Indiana primary) to see where he is in Michigan then, but I think Trump will be able to keep the margin of loss down to 5-7% or so, assuming the national margins have improved (as is reflected in recent polling).

Looking at the data alone for Michigan, it seems the best for Trump compared to Wisconsin, but still don't think that's saying much. However, Trump at least polled tied/+ twice there, even if by the same pollster. Demographic changes definitely gives MI an edge over WI, at least for the 2012-2016 period.

Trump is going to need to really fight (no being cheap this time, either) for these states. It's not going to be easy, even if he really begins to unload the insults and conspiracies. He's screwing up / making his own image problems at a faster rate right now than Clinton, and if this circus of his drags on, he'll struggle just to keep up with Hillary as he continues trying to "downgrade" her image & appeal. She is well-known and well-defined, so I don't suspect it'll be a walk in the park for him.

OK, I think we agree then.  Unlike other supporters of Mr. Trump, I'm not particularly optimistic about November, though I do give Trump a better shot than he had on May 4.  The real issue in my mind for Trump is being able to hold the Romney coalition while expanding the base enough to win.  It will be tough sledding, but anything can happen.