This thread sort of changed topic, but this district the last several cycles has been D in presidential years and toss-up in mid-term years. Blum won by 2 points two years ago and Braley (D) won by 1 point in 2010.
2008 and 2012 this district was safe D and it was no where close.
Exactly, and since this year is a presidential year, that's why I think Blum will end up losing. The district's PVI is D+5, which is winnable in a midterm wave for Republicans, but likely impossible this year. Blum was only able to win by 2% in an enormous Republican wave; this time presidential turnout and a better opponent will likely sink him.