VA-GOV 2025: Spanberger running

[JMT]

Spanberger is getting a ton of local endorsements, but this one from Elaine Luria seems particularly noteworthy, since there was some speculation that Luria may also run for Governor. This takes Luria out of contention.

https://twitter.com/elaineluria/status/1725515171609665783?s=46&t=-r8JGlJno4...

[JMT]

Spanberger is getting a ton of local endorsements, but this one from Elaine Luria seems particularly noteworthy, since there was some speculation that Luria may also run for Governor. This takes Luria out of contention.

https://twitter.com/elaineluria/status/1725515171609665783?s=46&t=-r8JGlJno4...

It's possible Luria runs for Senate in 2026 if Warner retires.

That would be great! If Luria is looking to run for something sooner, she could go for Lieutenant Governor in 2025. A Spanberger - Luria “ticket” would be amazing. But, maybe she holds off for Senate in 2026 (or later).

It does seem like a 2024 run for VA-02 is off the table for Luria, though. It seems that the party is coalescing around Missy Cotter Smasal to face off against Kiggans.

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/maryfrancesmcg/status/1731652825216582005?s=46&t=-r8JGlJ...

[JMT]

Very early polling finds Spanberger at 52%, Stoney at 8%. So, yeah.....


Some have suggested that Stoney is just gathering the resources before he drops down to the less noteworthy Lt. Gov race, something that he will could win the primary for if he does. But that's all speculation.

Honestly LT Gov is probably a big downgrade for him at least salary wise he makes $125K a year as Mayor and would make $36K as LT Gov. I don't think Stoney is independently wealthy so for him he mind as well go for the top spot or take his chances in the private sector.

I'd have to imagine that the advantage of his presence on the ticket, even if not on the top, is so large that Democratic donors would, erm. resolve any salary-related issues quite easily.

Also, Stoney is term limited and can’t run for reelection as Mayor. So switching to Lieutenant Governor is smart, given that he can’t run for Mayor again and was the clear underdog against Spanberger for Governor. Lt. Gov seems like his best chance to stay in office.

[JMT]

What would be the most likely split decision?  I'm guessing Spanberger and Dem LG, but Miyares gets reelected as AG given incumbency and the salience of the crime issue in lean D suburbs?  Alternative would be R's end up nominating someone nutty for LG and lose it in an otherwise R leaning year while Sears and Miyares win?

Yeah I feel like Spanberger for Gov, Dem for Lt Gov, and Miyares reelected as AG is probably the most likely split decision at this point. That result wouldn’t really surprise me.

If Sears loses to Spanberger this cycle and Miyares is reelected, that potentially sets Miyares up nicely for a 2029 run for Governor.