It's tough to see Trump winning Virginia if the election were held today. He'd need 3 things:
1. Decline in black and Hispanic turnout (probably will happen, but only a little bit).
2. Increased turnout in rural and small-town areas (possibly happening).
3. Unsavory aspects of Hillary boost 3rd party voting in NoVA.
The latter hasn't happened yet, but it may, and it's key. Johnson is kind of like that guy who was the Libertarian candidate for VA Gov in 2013; he's not really a Libertarian, but he's a social libertarian who might prove attractive to some Democrats and liberal independents. We'll see.
McMullin is on the ballot in VA. He'll definitely get some disaffected Republicans in NoVA. I feel like NoVA voters in general would be high info voters and therefore at least know who McMullin is. I think that having Tim Kaine really solidified VA for Hillary.
