Austrian Elections & Politics - Version 1.0

[DavidB.]

This is f***ing terrible. Something needs to change. I think this will influence Austrian politics as well.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/austria-lorry-migrants-eu-refugee-crisis-50-asylumseekers-found-dead-in-a-lorry-10474464.html

[DavidB.]

You're probably right with regard to the tragedy's effects on politics, Tender.

Just in time, the police stopped another lorry full of people who had gone through a similar kind of hell. They went to a hospital in... Braunau.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/aug/29/three-children-critical-after-being-rescued-from-lorry-in-austria

[DavidB.]

Germany is now the "promised land" or something ...

Well, leaving Braunau for "promised land" Germany isn't really something new

On a serious note, today I read in a Dutch quality newspaper that Germany is apparently an extremely popular destination among migrants. They seem to absolutely love Merkel. This might actually be good for Austria, even though it's pretty unlikely the flood to Austria will stop anytime soon on a short term: the Hungarian fence turns out to be a joke, migrants simply cut it with an iron scissor.

Is there also something else happening in Austrian politics right now, or is it really only about immigration + asylum seekers right now? It seems like the state elections will be overshadowed by these issues...

[DavidB.]

the Hungarian fence turns out to be a joke, migrants simply cut it with an iron scissor.

It is temporary. The permanent "wall" they set up in November will be a different matter.

Ah, I thought the "wall" was, in reality, a fence - this fence.

[DavidB.]

Meanwhile, Austria has implemented border controls at the border crossing with Hungary on the highway to Vienna, starting last night.

[DavidB.]

FPÖ 163
ÖVP 160
NEOS 83
SPÖ -136
Grüne -160
ANDAS -245

How much of an issue is the abortion thing really? Will the left truly make it a lot easier/cheaper? That would probably decide whether I'd vote for NEOS or ÖVP.

[DavidB.]

FPÖ 163
ÖVP 160
NEOS 83
SPÖ -136
Grüne -160
ANDAS -245

How much of an issue is the abortion thing really? Will the left truly make it a lot easier/cheaper? That would probably decide whether I'd vote for NEOS or ÖVP.

The abortion issue is not a real issue in Vienna. The question is in the "election booth" on a regular basis because it's a social issue.

The question asks: "Should the city of Vienna provide abortions in hospitals, covered by social security ?"

Austria is one of the few countries in which abortion is not covered by social security carriers and women who want to perform an abortion have to pay it themselves (usually between 400-1000€). This is mostly because of the ÖVP, who does not consider abortion a "sickness" and therefore abortions are exempt from being covered by the social security system. Outside Vienna and the capital cities, only a handful of hospitals perform abortions.

wahlkabine.at offers the parties positions on the issue:

SPÖ, Greens, NEOS and Wien Anders are in favour of abortions being covered
ÖVP, FPÖ are against

(question 17)

http://wahlkabine.at/ltw2015wien/standpunkte

To your question:

Which means indeed, the Left would make it easier and more widely available to have an abortion, and with the higher availability it would also be cheaper. Or they would simply draft a law that it's covered by the SocSecuritySystem.

I knew what the question meant but frankly didn't know about the situation in Austria in general. Thanks for explaining I did the quiz on my mobile phone so I didn't see any specifics about parties, but it doesn't surprise me that FPÖ and ÖVP are against it. This would probably convince me to vote ÖVP instead of NEOS. #babylivesmatter

[DavidB.]

Doing the Wahlkabine thing:

ANDAS  408
Grüne  340
SPÖ  182
NEOS  82
FPÖ -157
ÖVP -184

DavidB, mine is exactly yours in reverse

Lol! At least we have almost the same score for moderate hero party NEOS

[DavidB.]

Meanwhile, the Austrians have given up on their short-lived efforts to protect the border. The controls at the Hegyeshalom/Nickelsdorf border crossing, the main crossing with Hungary, have been abolished.

[DavidB.]

I'd say, from today's POV, a 50/50 or maybe 40/60 chance of either FPÖ/ÖVP or SPÖ/ÖVP/Greens. Depends probably on how much the ÖVP would get its way in the three-party coalition, because they'll obviously play the "if you don't want to we'll take Strache"-card. Yes, that's exactly how horrible the ÖVP is.

Wouldn't SPÖ/ÖVP/NEOS be more acceptable than SPÖ/ÖVP/Greens for the ÖVP, in that case?

[DavidB.]

Protest parties can also originate in the elite. Liberal Alliance in Denmark is very much an elite baed protest party. I assumed NEOS was broadly similar.

They seem to be a "soft protest party", just like D66 used to be. Policy-wise, NEOS seems very similar to D66 (and probably Radikale Venstre). I think the issue with being in government, for NEOS, would not merely be about protest parties becoming unpopular in government, but about progressive social liberals becoming unpopular in a government in which they are the junior partner. Interesting point though.

Young people vote for the OVP in a significant amount?

Not really, but as a (somewhat) highly educated person on the center-right, ÖVP basically used to be your only credible option in the Austrian political landscape before the emergence of NEOS. Now, NEOS are quickly winning this type of young-ish voters, who didn't really feel attached to the "old" ÖVP in the first place: ÖVP doesn't quite reflect their values (and exactly this isn't so much of a problem with older ÖVP voters). I totally understand why ÖVP thinks NEOS are a real threat to them, because they are. Cranberry's analysis makes sense to me.

[DavidB.]

* 72% of Austrians think the migrant influx will lead to a so-called "Überfremdung" ("over-foreignization")

Not going to argue about the sentiment itself, but given its history in the nazi era, using this term in 2015 is like... not classy.

(For Austrians in general  - this is not meant as an attack at Tender, I don't even know if you would use this word.)

[DavidB.]

* 72% of Austrians think the migrant influx will lead to a so-called "Überfremdung" ("over-foreignization")

Not going to argue about the sentiment itself, but given its history in the nazi era, using this term in 2015 is like... not classy.

(For Austrians in general  - this is not meant as an attack at Tender, I don't even know if you would use this word.)

Yes, but you have to keep in mind that the TV channel the poll was conducted for, ServusTV, is owned by Red Bull, and while apparently having quite nice documentaries about alpine wildlife and stuff, it's really the last thing you'd go to to expect proper, balanced news coverage. I haven't seen a term like this used in proper newspapers / TV stations, that's what I want to go to (well except the Kronen Zeitung, but whether or not you can call the Queen of the Austrian boulevard press a "proper" news source is again debatable...)

Okay, fair enough. That's good to know. Do FPÖ politicians use this term?

[DavidB.]

"Braune Flecken" is aimed at FPÖ?

[DavidB.]

In practical terms: Whatever. It's not as if he has a serious chance to become president, right?

In theoretical terms: While I admire his personal ethics on this issue, I do think it would be wiser for people not to politicize an office that should be ceremonial.

[DavidB.]

The polls close at 4pm, which is when the 1st projection by SORA is released for the ORF.

Seems really early. People have little time to vote then, if they have something to do in the morning (church/sports)...

[DavidB.]

Also, turnout looks to be huge. Somewhere between 80-85%.

That's awesome.

[DavidB.]

The guy talking about nervosität seems to be quite nervous himself, lol.

[DavidB.]

Lol, this countdown thing.

[DavidB.]

Haha, my prediction for the SPÖ was right on the money if this is true. I only didn't hear about the turnout figure, which should be known by now.

[DavidB.]

Tender, you said that the figure for the FPÖ will likely be lower than in the exit poll. Why?

[DavidB.]

The turnout will only be known if all votes are counted.

Why? Polling stations should know how many people have voted by now.

[DavidB.]

So it seems like ÖVP and the Greens won't have a majority (27/56 seats in exit poll, 29 needed), even though it will be close. That will make ÖVP-FPÖ more likely, I suppose.

[DavidB.]

Also lol @ NEOS outperforming most of our predictions yet still not reaching the threshold in the exit poll.

[DavidB.]

Prediction has been changed: ÖVP up to 36.1%, NEOS down to 3.6%.