MO-SEN 2018: The Megathread

[MT Treasurer]

God, I can't wait until this race is finally called. The next 16 months are going to be so annoying, lol.

[MT Treasurer]

In a race McCaskill is slightly not favored in atm, I still think Hawley winning 61-39 and not facing any scandals should worry McCaskill.

Any non-Akin/Blunt Republican running should worry McCaskill. This isn't Michigan, and her favorability is underwater.

[MT Treasurer]

Hawley will announce his exploratory committee on Friday.

Great news! This is one of the most important races in the country, a Republican win here would be big.

AKA, drains her war chest by destroying Hawley's favorability numbers, drops out citing her breast cancer, and the party chooses Kander, who is still pretty well liked in the state, to run in her stead.

This isn't going to happen. First of all, McCaskill is going to face an avalanche of attack ads herself. Second, there is no indication that she is planning on stepping down AT ALL, in fact she seems fairly confident that she will win.

Even if Kander were to win the nomination, he'd have a harder time beating Hawley than Roy Blunt.

[MT Treasurer]

But calling Missouri likely or safe R right now because "Trump won by 19 and McCaskill is a libruhl!" is just f-ing dumb.

I think most other Democrats would have a much better shot at holding this seat (though I guess it would still be Lean R, maybe closer to Tilt or Tossup if 2018 turns out to be an absolute disaster for Republicans), but we cannot simply choose to ignore these factors. I'd rate it Likely R right now (not Safe R because both Trump and the Missouri GOP are a joke), and I honestly don't believe this race will be particularly close in the end either. I'll be eating crow if I'm wrong.

Also, this and IN are the only states where I believe Republicans are favored by quite a bit, but it doesn't really mean much because Democrats could cancel it out by picking up NV (likely) and AZ (not sure). Republicans need to do more than just win one or two states, given how favorable the map is for them in 2018 and how many vulnerable seats they have to defend in 2020.

[MT Treasurer]

Petersen will never be the nominee, I don't know why people are so obsessed with him.

[MT Treasurer]

CFG has raised $10M for Hawley.

Good. National Republicans are also already running radio ads against her.

Link to the most recent ad.

[MT Treasurer]

Hawley has made it official: He is running for Senate

[MT Treasurer]

MO AG Hawley was essentially forced by the MO GOP and the establishment. I don't know if Bannon will be on his side.

Apparently he has endorsed Hawley.

[MT Treasurer]

Does Josh Hawley win Johnson County, which he lost to Tony Monetti in the primary?

How is this a serious question?

[MT Treasurer]

Does Josh Hawley win Johnson County, which he lost to Tony Monetti in the primary?

How is this a serious question?

It's largely a GOP county, but McCaskill won in in 2012. Akin even lost it in the primary.

It voted 64-28 Trump, 57-39 Greitens and 55-39 Blunt. And yeah, she won it in 2012, but call me crazy for believing that Hawley might manage to do 8 points better than Akin in a county that has trended strongly R since then.

[MT Treasurer]

Take this with a grain of salt, but apparently there’s quite a big discrepancy between public polls and R internal tracking here:

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1051457539672555521

[MT Treasurer]

Galloway for Governor?

I hope she only goes for it if Parson is polling badly. It’s probably unwinnable unless he is. Either her or find some rich Fred Hubbell-type self funded dude who is moderate to conservative on social issues

She’d be a decent Senate candidate in 2022 if Trump is in his second term.

Well, Reynolds isn’t exactly unpopular and still in big trouble if the polls are to be trusted.

[MT Treasurer]

Republicans may not like it, but unlike Heitkamp, Nelson, or Donnelly, McCaskill is insanely skilled at firing up the Democratic base, and that matters a lot in a midterm like this. I wouldn’t be surprised if she outperformed the polling average by 2-4 points or won by more than Donnelly in a big wave, although I maintain that she’s going to lose if Republicans are having a better than expected night. Still a Toss-up, but Republicans shouldn’t underestimate her just because she might not be as "moderate" or "popular" as some other red state Democrats.

[MT Treasurer]

Man, this thread is going to be an absolute mess on Nov. 7, lol.

[MT Treasurer]

McCaskill's nasty concession speech just goes to show what a despicable person she is and why the Senate is much better off with her gone

Yep. She was my one of my least favorite senators. Good riddance!