ND-SEN: Cramer likely to run

[MT Treasurer]

and I'd vote for a reasonable conservative Democrat like Heitkamp against him in a heartbeat.

Except that Heitkamp is not a conservative Democrat.

[MT Treasurer]

Tbh, there is a long tradition of the Dakotas and Montana electing relatively liberal and somewhat centrist Democrats to the Senate. Heitkamp is very similar to someone like Jon Tester, who is popular among his progressive base but hardly cares about conservatives in his state. Smoltchanov is right that these days too many Senators are considered "moderates". People like Feinstein, Carper, Hassan, McCaskill, etc. are all very liberal, but apparently not liberal enough for many Democrats (for reasons I will never understand). Same goes for Republicans who consider people like Kelly Ayotte, Pat Toomey or Rob Portman "too liberal" or RINOs.

[MT Treasurer]

^I see. You're making some good points, even though I think Hassan just took that 'tough on refugees' position because it was election year and she ran for Senate... I doubt she is even remotely 'anti-refugee' and her voting record should be very liberal.

Regarding Amanda Curtis, a lot depends on what kind of year 2020 turns out to be. Montana is a purple state and quite polarized in many regards, so Curtis getting 40% was not THAT surprising. She is quite popular among the progressive base (like Tester), so I could see her getting 44% or maybe 45% in a very good year for Democrats. Anything higher than that would be difficult and almost impossible - especially against a somewhat popular Republican incumbent (even though incumbency doesn't mean much these days). Montana is trending a bit Republican at the federal and statewide level, so it would be tough for her. I think even Bullock would lose to Daines by 2-4 points, tbh.

I do expect both the 2018 and the 2020 Senate race to be quite competitive. Right now I think Zinke will very narrowly beat Tester in two years and that Daines will narrowly beat Bullock, but we'll see.

[MT Treasurer]

Meh, he's the best candidate Republicans have. He has high name recognition, seems to be quite popular and is one of the Republicans who has held the most town hall events with constituents, which matters in a state like ND (where retail politics are important).