MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[MT Treasurer]

Btw....

As of 5/24:

County (2016 Presidential vote, Gubernatorial vote) % returned

(Numbers for Cascade County are probably an error and will be fixed soon.)

Cascade (voted for Trump by 22%, Bullock by 10%) 68.2% of mail-ins returned (-0.1???)

Flathead (voted for Trump by 36%, Gianforte by 15%) 74.0% of mail-ins returned (+1.8 )

Gallatin (voted for Clinton by 1%, Bullock by 15%) 68.5% of mail-ins returned (+3.1)

Lake (voted for Trump by 21%, Bullock by 1%) 77.8% of mail-ins returned (+1.5)

Lewis & Clark (voted for Trump by 7%, Bullock by 23%) 77.4% of mail-ins returned (+4.1)

Missoula (voted for Clinton by 16%, Bullock by 34%) 68.5% of mail-ins returned (+2.6)

Ravalli (voted for Trump by 38% Gianforte by 14%) 78.7% of mail-ins returned (+3.9)

Silver Bow (voted for Clinton by 14%, Bullock by 44%) 73.1% of mail-ins returned (+2.4)

Yellowstone (voted for Trump by 27%, Gianforte by 1%) 72.9% of mail-ins returned (+2.1)

STATEWIDE: 72.6% of mail-ins returned (+2.4)

Added the change (5/23-5/24) in brackets.

[MT Treasurer]

thanks a lot, MT!

since i am greedy....is MT "small" enough that all counties are necessary or...which one are the biggues?

You mean whether all counties are important? Well, it depends on how close the race is. Gianforte obviously needs high turnout and margins in the rural areas (especially in the East), but he also needs to win Yellowstone County (Billings), Flathead County (Kalispell) and Ravalli County by a lot.
Quist needs to run up the margins in Missoula, Silver Bow and Gallatin.

But yeah, if it is within 2 points or so, "every county matters" . And as was mentioned before, Lake County is usually a good bellwether.

[MT Treasurer]

Yeah, this is all about reducing Gianforte's margin on election day now for Quist. But it is worth pointing out that just because this pattern occurred in past elections, that doesn't mean things can't get odd this time around. For example, in 2016 Gianforte took a 2000-vote lead or so with 85%-90% of precincts reporting, and at that point I thought that he had a good chance of winning due to the usual reporting pattern being replicated. And what happened? The last 10-15% came in, and Bullock actually took the lead and won by 4 in the end. (This didn't happen in the 2006 and 2012 Senate race, btw). So while it is true that the early returns/the first big vote dump almost always favor Democrats (like I said, Bullock was up 13 points with 30% of the vote in in 2016), last year the last returns were very Democratic-friendly as well. Maybe this was just a one-time thing, who knows.

Just watch the county by county results and don't overreact to early returns. It's probably the best to wait until at least 70% of the vote is in (if not more than that) before making a projection, even if it "looks" like there is a winner early on.

[MT Treasurer]

Guys, wouldn't it be cool to watch a tag team wrestling match between Gianforte and Trump, vs Quist and Bullock. I think I'd die.

I'd prefer Tester and Fox vs. Zinke and Gianforte.

[MT Treasurer]

Wow and I thought I was a partisan hack for thinking Rauner can win reelection.

Uh, I wasn't being serious.

Anyway, when will the link to the NY Times results page be available?

[MT Treasurer]

It seems fairly quiet in here for election day. No turnout reports, only a few articles linked.

sad!

Better than people spreading false rumors. Also, we have 7 hours left and there hasn't been much "action" since yesterday.

[MT Treasurer]

Absentee numbers have been updated.

As of 5/25, 11:25:45 AM:

County (2016 Presidential vote, Gubernatorial vote) % returned

(Numbers for Cascade County are probably an error and will be fixed soon.)

Cascade (voted for Trump by 22%, Bullock by 10%) 70.9% of mail-ins returned

Flathead (voted for Trump by 36%, Gianforte by 15%) 75.1% of mail-ins returned (+1.1)

Gallatin (voted for Clinton by 1%, Bullock by 15%) 70.2% of mail-ins returned (+1.7)

Lake (voted for Trump by 21%, Bullock by 1%) 78.3% of mail-ins returned (+0.5)

Lewis & Clark (voted for Trump by 7%, Bullock by 23%) 78.5% of mail-ins returned (+1.1)

Missoula (voted for Clinton by 16%, Bullock by 34%) 69.8% of mail-ins returned (+1.3)

Ravalli (voted for Trump by 38% Gianforte by 14%) 79.8% of mail-ins returned (+1.1)

Silver Bow (voted for Clinton by 14%, Bullock by 44%) 74.1% of mail-ins returned (+1.0)

Yellowstone (voted for Trump by 27%, Gianforte by 1%) 73.9% of mail-ins returned (+1.0)

STATEWIDE: 73.8% of mail-ins returned (+1.2)

Added the change (5/24-5/25, 11:25 AM) in brackets.

[MT Treasurer]

Yeah, of course I wouldn't read too much (if anything) into these numbers (especially since we don't even know what the margins in these counties will be), but they're better than nothing.

[MT Treasurer]

Apparently turnout in Butte (Silver Bow County) is pretty good. This is a solid Democratic county, Quist needs to do well there.

[MT Treasurer]

Haha...

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Also:

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[MT Treasurer]

Is there a reason why Quist is collapsing on PredictIt?

[MT Treasurer]

What time do polls close again in Montana?

8 PM local time, so 10 PM EST.

[MT Treasurer]

Turnout in Ravalli County is much higher than expected, both in the precincts where the Congressional race is the only thing on the ballot and the ones where two school ballot issues are decided as well. There were signs of this in the absentee data.

http://www.nbcmontana.com/news/keci/ravalli-co-polls-busier-than-expected/517225276

[MT Treasurer]

So apparently Steve Bullock will be attending Quist's election night party in Missoula tonight. Gianforte campaign isn't answering any questions today, so not sure whether there will be any special guests in Bozeman.

Also, turnout in Missoula seems to be good, so I don't think Democrats need to worry about this.

[MT Treasurer]

Yay! NYT did county maps!

Wait, is there a precinct map anywhere? That would be amazing.

[MT Treasurer]

So I'm going to post this for the last time. Calculating these numbers is fun.

As of 5/25, 5:49 PM:

County (2016 Presidential vote, Gubernatorial vote) % returned

Cascade (voted for Trump by 22%, Bullock by 10%) 74.2% of mail-ins returned

Flathead (voted for Trump by 36%, Gianforte by 15%) 75.1% of mail-ins returned

Gallatin (voted for Clinton by 1%, Bullock by 15%) 76.4% of mail-ins returned

Lake (voted for Trump by 21%, Bullock by 1%) 79.0% of mail-ins returned

Lewis & Clark (voted for Trump by 7%, Bullock by 23%) 80.1% of mail-ins returned

Missoula (voted for Clinton by 16%, Bullock by 34%) 73.2% of mail-ins returned

Ravalli (voted for Trump by 38% Gianforte by 14%) 80.6% of mail-ins returned

Silver Bow (voted for Clinton by 14%, Bullock by 44%) 77.5% of mail-ins returned

Yellowstone (voted for Trump by 27%, Gianforte by 1%) 75.1% of mail-ins returned

STATEWIDE: 75.8% of mail-ins returned

[MT Treasurer]

Does MT break down Early Voting vs ED Voting like California does for example, or do we just need to read tea leaves based upon early returns?

Reason I'm asking has nothing really to do with any partisan interest in the outcome of this election, but rather how we crunch and understand the numbers and election returns as they roll in from Montana on this election, and future elections as well.  (Good Poly-Sci data for any of you college students out there )

I don't think it works like in California. It's probably the best to just pay attention to the county results, since there is no guarantee that the usual pattern will be replicated.  Like I said, Democrats generally (and by that I mean almost always) start out ahead once the first big vote dump comes in. After that, things should continue to tighten at some point.

[MT Treasurer]

All results pages:

Associated Press
Decision Desk
NY Times
Secretary of State

[MT Treasurer]

That Yellowstone margin is big.

[MT Treasurer]

Quist is underperfoming Bullock '16 in Yellowstone, Deer Lodge and Lewis and Clark so far.

[MT Treasurer]

Good lord, Gianforte leading in Big Horn. Still early, though.

[MT Treasurer]

The only county where Quist is doing better than Bullock in 2012 is Gallatin. But again, still early. If that Yellowstone margin holds, though...

[MT Treasurer]

Good lord, Gianforte leading in Big Horn. Still early, though.

In your opinion, MT, is Gianforte outperforming or underperforming in general?

Based on the NY Times results, he is undeperforming and not getting the numbers he needs. But like I said, let's wait for more returns, LOL.

[MT Treasurer]

Early vote in Montana leans Republican, calm down.

Since when?

[MT Treasurer]

Gianforte is doing very well so far.