MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[MT Treasurer]

By the way, what caused vote totals to change? Absentee/mail-in ballots, I assume?

Mostly provisional ballots, I believe. This happens every time, and those late ballots always skew Democratic.

Hey MT, Marty and any local Montanan who would be the best recruit to knock GG off in 2018?

Well, if the national environment is good enough and/or Gianforte's approval ratings plunge, Jesse Laslovich should give it a try again IMO. The Democrats also have some pretty good other potential candidates currently serving in the Montana Legislature. Some people are apparently obsessed with Kelly McCarthy and would really like to see him run, so maybe he'll end up being the Democratic nominee (I think he's overrated, but who knows). I read somewhere that Amanda Curtis might run again, but I really doubt it.

Gianforte should do 4-6 points better than the Republican candidate for Senate, but there won't be THAT many Tester/Gianforte voters. I know it's controversial because "Trump midterm!!", but right now I'd rate the Senate race a Tossup and the House race Lean R.

[MT Treasurer]

Alright, so here is the 2012-GOV --> 2017-Special election swing map:

2012 results:

Steve Bullock (D) - 236,450 - 48.90%
Rick Hill (R) - 228,879 - 47.34%
Ron Vandevender (L) - 18,160 - 3.76%

2017 results:

Greg Gianforte (R) - 190,520 - 49.95%
Rob Quist (D) - 169,214 - 44.36%
Mark Wicks (L) - 21,682 - 5.68%

Statewide "swing": R+7.15

County by county "swing" (Link: http://funkyimg.com/i/2wjPe.png)



(Intervals: 0%-5%, 5%-10%, etc.)

Four counties swung Democratic: Gallatin, Missoula, Flathead and Madison.

[MT Treasurer]

2016-PRES --> 2017-Special election swing map:

2016 results:

Trump (R) - 279,240 - 55.65%
Clinton (D) - 177,709 - 35.41%
Others - 44,873 - 8.94%

2017 results:

Greg Gianforte (R) - 190,520 - 49.95%
Rob Quist (D) - 169,214 - 44.36%
Mark Wicks (L) - 21,682 - 5.68%

Statewide "swing": D+14.65

County by county "swing" (Link: http://funkyimg.com/i/2wk3k.png)



(Intervals: 0%-5%, 5%-10%, etc.)

This map really underscores the importance of Yellowstone County, which was key to Gianforte's victory. Quist outperformed Clinton in every county (no surprise), but he underperformed substantially in Yellowstone County (the most populous county in the state.

[MT Treasurer]

2014-SEN --> 2017-Special election swing map:

2014 results:

Steve Daines (R) - 213,709 - 57.79%
Amanda Curtis (D) - 148,184 - 40.07%
Roger Roots (L) - 7,933 - 2.15%

2017 results:

Greg Gianforte (R) - 190,520 - 49.95%
Rob Quist (D) - 169,214 - 44.36%
Mark Wicks (L) - 21,682 - 5.68%

Statewide "swing": D+12.13

County by county "swing" (Link: http://funkyimg.com/i/2wk82.png)



(Intervals: 0%-5%, 5%-10%, etc.)

As you can see, Eastern Montana wasn't very kind to Quist. Maybe I'll post some further #analysis later.

[MT Treasurer]

Yeah, but I seemed to remember that they endorsed Dems pretty regularly before. So is this yet another Democratic casualty in the #waroncoal? Or was this a one-election deal?

I wouldn't read too much into this, honestly. Rosendale is making fossil fuels a key issue of his Senatorial campaign, and we all know Tester is the one who will get their endorsement. A lot of people endorsed Gianforte who "shouldn't have", including the state's largest newspapers. Quist wasn't the strongest candidate and didn't run the best campaign, to say the least.

[MT Treasurer]

2016-GOV --> 2017-Special election swing map

2016 results:

Steve Bullock (D) - 255,933 - 50.25%
Greg Gianforte (R) - 36,115 - 46.36%
Ted Dunlap (L) - 17,312 - 3.40%

2017 results:

Greg Gianforte (R) - 190,520 - 49.95%
Rob Quist (D) - 169,214 - 44.36%
Mark Wicks (L) - 21,682 - 5.68%

Statewide "swing": R+9.48

County by county "swing" (Link: http://funkyimg.com/i/2wmvD.png)

[MT Treasurer]

2014-SEN --> 2017-Special election swing map:

2014 results:

Steve Daines (R) - 213,709 - 57.79%
Amanda Curtis (D) - 148,184 - 40.07%
Roger Roots (L) - 7,933 - 2.15%

2017 results:

Greg Gianforte (R) - 190,520 - 49.95%
Rob Quist (D) - 169,214 - 44.36%
Mark Wicks (L) - 21,682 - 5.68%

Statewide "swing": D+12.13

County by county "swing" (Link: http://funkyimg.com/i/2wk82.png)



(Intervals: 0%-5%, 5%-10%, etc.)

As you can see, Eastern Montana wasn't very kind to Quist. Maybe I'll post some further #analysis later.

And here the 2014-SEN --> 2017-Special election TREND map (my last map):



(Intervals: 0%-5%, 5%-10%, etc.)

The counties which are colored blue are the ones where the Democratic swing was higher than the statewide swing to the Democrats. Self-explanatory, honestly.

[MT Treasurer]

Some observations:

- It is fairly obvious that Gallatin County (Bozeman) is trending Democratic. The county swung HARD left in the special election and it was also the only county in the state where Clinton did better than Obama (it was the only Romney/Clinton county as well). The outlying areas are still fairly conservative (which gives the GOP a relatively high floor), but I'd be very surprised if the county voted Republican again any time soon. Trump definitely won't win it in 2020 (and I doubt it will even be within 5 points).

- Like I said before, Yellowstone County was key to Gianforte's victory. Usually, the county is about 3-5 points more Republican than the state as a whole, but in this election, it was 13 points more Republican than the entire state. 

- Democrats still have a lot of room for growth in Missoula County. Quist did better than Bullock '12 in the county, which is quite remarkable.

- Flathead and Ravalli County, two fairly populated strongly Republican counties in Western Montana, are really not trending much either way (maybe slightly Republican, if anything). This, combined with the fact that there is no Democratic trend at all in Yellowstone County, is good news for the MT GOP in the long run, as it offsets Democratic gains in Gallatin, Missoula, Glacier, Park and a few other counties.

- By and large, there was a East-West divide, with the East trending sharply Republican, while most counties in the West either trended slightly Democratic or Republican (or, in a few select cases, modestly Democratic/Republican). We'll see if this trend continues in 2018 (I suspect it will).

- It looks as if latte liberals and students were more excited about Quist and his campaign than Native Americans.

[MT Treasurer]

The last thing I want to dump in this thread are the margins for each county, ranked here from most R to most D. This may be useful if you want to follow another statewide or Senate race in the state in 2018 or 2020 on election night.

Garfield: R+84.81
Carter: R+73.04
Fallon: R+65.51
Petroleum: R+64.71
Powder River: R+61.34
Wibaux: R+60.8
Phillips: R+58.95               
McCone: R+57.89             
Musselshell: R+55.45
Prairie: R+55.13
Richland: R+51.09
Daniels: R+50.58
Golden Valley: R+48.86
Sweet Grass: R+43.34
Stillwater: R+42.06
Meagher: R+41.29
Treasure: R+40.36
Fergus: R+39.71
Dawson: R+39.4
Judith Basin: R+39.2
Broadwater: R+37.19
Wheatland: R+36.02
Lincoln: R+34.63       
Valley: R+34.45     
Toole: R+34.17                     
Sanders: R+34.06
Powell: R+33.85
Liberty: R+33.61
Beaverhead: R+30.46
Custer: R+28.5                   
Madison: R+27.26 
Granite: R+26.38
Teton: R+24.63
Pondera: R+24.48
Ravalli: R+24.27 
Chouteau: R+24.15
Mineral: R+24.1
Rosebud: R+21.08           
Jefferson: R+18.94
Flathead: R+18.86             
Yellowstone: R+18.35 
Sheridan: R+16.37
Carbon: R+12.33             
Lake: R+7.16       
Cascade: R+6.97     
-------------------------------------------------------         
Hill: D+0.64
Park: D+4.73
Roosevelt: D+5.48
Big Horn: D+7.36     
Blaine: D+7.8                               
Lewis and Clark: D+9.34
Gallatin: D+13.96               
Missoula: D+31.63     
Deer Lodge: D+33.64       
Glacier: D+33.91               
Silver Bow: D+34.19         

The county which voted closest to the statewide result (R+5.59) was Cascade and not Lake. Interestingly enough (though not that surprising), every county won by Gianforte was more Republican than the state as a whole.

[MT Treasurer]

^Yeah, I was looking for imgur alternatives. Too bad this one is gone.

This should work:

Wicks percentage by county



Intervals: Wicks <4%, Wicks <5%, Wicks <6%, Wicks <7%, Wicks <8%, Wicks <9%, Wicks <10%, Wicks >10%

2014-SEN --> 2017-Special election swing map  (Lewis and Clark County was a mistake: The county swung 14.53 points to the left, so it should have been shaded with the same color as the counties below it!)

  

(Intervals: 0%-5%, 5%-10%, etc.)

2014-SEN --> 2017-Special election trend map



(Intervals: 0%-5%, 5%-10%, etc.)

2012-GOV --> 2017-Special election swing map



(Intervals: 0%-5%, 5%-10%, etc.)

2016-GOV --> 2017-Special election swing map



(Intervals: 0%-5%, 5%-10%, etc.)

2016-PRES --> 2017-Special election swing map



(Intervals: 0%-5%, 5%-10%, etc.)

[MT Treasurer]

Quist changed the name of his facebook page from "Quist For Congress" to "Quist for Montana" So who knows what that means.

I don't think this means anything, honestly. I don't see him running for governor either, and I doubt he'd win the Democratic primary even if he ran (unless it'll be more crowded than I expect right now - and even then...)