Do you want Joe Manchin to lose in 2018? (user search)
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  Do you want Joe Manchin to lose in 2018? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Do you want Joe Manchin to lose in 2018?  (Read 3768 times)
MT Treasurer
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« on: January 18, 2017, 04:35:15 PM »
« edited: January 18, 2017, 04:38:26 PM by MT Treasurer »

Nah, you can keep the generic liberal who says some redneck-sounding things every once in a while. Smiley

I completely agree with you. This is a challenge Republicans have to face in so many red states: Republican/Republican-leaning voters are willing to vote for "moderate" Senate candidates from the opposite party, but voters in blue states like IL and MA aren't, which is why the Republican advantage in the Senate exists only on paper and not in reality. Manchin votes with Chuck Schumer like 97% of time, and yet I've seen people suggest that he is more conservative than Shelley Moore-Capito, which is an insane thing to say. If Donnelly and Manchin were to cast the deciding votes on defunding PP, they would definitely vote "no". Pro-life Democrats (especially those who have "evolved" on the issue) aren't really a thing. Heidi Heitkamp (who is probably the biggest fraud in the Senate) campaigned as a pro-lifer and a conservative Democrat, and yet her record is solidly pro-choice and quite liberal when it comes to several other issues as well.
Or take a look at Missouri: Rural and suburban voters who voted for Trump supported Jason Kander for Senate just because he assembled an AR-15 blindfolded in an ad (I mean, who cares about the "F" rating he received from the NRA, right?) and because they saw SENADAH BLUNT as part of the "establishment" (whatever that stupid term means... as if Kander wouldn't be part of the establishment once elected). I know this sounds very elitist, but red state voters who think like that are just very dumb, unlike voters in blue states. If you're a Republican, vote for a Republican for Senate. If you're a Democrat, vote for a Democrat for Senate. No matter how "moderate" the other candidate tells you they are. As simple as that.

Anyway, I want Manchin to lose, but he is definitely not the worst red-state Democrat in the Senate. His populism is mostly fake (as is the case with Jim Justice), but McCaskill (who seems to think that Missouri is Maryland), Heitkamp (awful fake moderate) and Tester (ugh) are all far worse than Manchin. I think Donnelly is a decent Senator, though.  
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #1 on: January 18, 2017, 04:52:14 PM »
« Edited: January 18, 2017, 05:00:55 PM by MT Treasurer »

@MTTreasurer

The question of why red states are more likely to support moderates from the other party than blue states does actually perplex me, but I think there's more to it than "red state voters are idiots."

I think it has more to do with retail politics. Small states are more likely to be Republican, and in smaller states, retail politics matters so much more because, with fewer voters, it actually becomes feasible. I think the reason why Tester and Heitkamp and Manchin were able to win is because of that. In Maryland, or Cali, or other blue states, you're probably dealing with bigger populations, making charismatic, moderate-sounding, people from the other party less able to succeed with that tactic.

Of course, that still leaves Missouri...

Yeah, the only Democratic state that comes to mind where this isn't the case is Maine (Susan Collins). But then again, Maine is hardly a deep blue state (especially today), so it's not a good comparison.

And don't get me wrong, voters in Democratic states who are voting against moderate Republican Senate candidates are absolutely doing the right thing. There is no reason why someone like Mark Kirk should represent Illinois in the Senate, for example. If I were a Democrat or Democratic-leaning, I'd definitely vote against people like Susan Collins (heck, I probably would have voted for Bellows in 2014 anyway, in all honesty).

Most ideological scorecards rate Manchin level with or to the right of Collins. Anyone who puts him to the right of Capito is delusional. Of course his populism is slightly manufactured - he was the CEO of a mining company and his daughter is the CEO of a pharmaceutical company - but he's not a totally fake moderate like McCaskill or Tester.

Manchin vs. Collins is very debatable (just ask RINO Tom Wink) but I agree with you on the rest. And like I said, I think he and Donnelly are the best Democratic Senators, not that it means much. 
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #2 on: January 20, 2017, 12:11:56 AM »

Speaking of Manchin, I think the guy is definitely the luckiest Senator now that Trump is president. He almost certainly would have been Blanched had Clinton won, but now he's very well-positioned to win reelection.
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