Races where your "gut" differs from your "head"

[MT Treasurer]

In which races (House/Senate, but you can also do Governor/state legislature) does your head tell you one candidate will win but your gut tells you the other candidate will emerge victorious?

[MT Treasurer]

For me:

MT-AL - head says Rosendale, gut says Williams

MI-SEN/ME-SEN/NC-SEN - head says Republicans lose all three of those, gut says they win one of them (but I can’t decide which one — I also used to get WI-SEN 2016 vibes from the NC race and still feel like Tillis won’t significantly underperform Trump, but it’s hard to ignore those kinds of polling leads)

KS-SEN - head says Marshall, gut says race goes down to the wire (with a ND 2012-esque Bollier "upset" possible)

VA-05 - Head says Good, gut says Webb