Mississippi 2015 Megathread

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I'll say it again, Democrats totally deserve this for nominating awful candidates. They could have at least ran a mayor like Connie Moran or somebody like that. But instead they got behind a trial lawyer from Madison and got burned in the primary because she had no name ID. Rickey Cole is an idiot.

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I'll say it again, Democrats totally deserve this for nominating awful candidates. They could have at least ran a mayor like Connie Moran or somebody like that. But instead they got behind a trial lawyer from Madison and got burned in the primary because she had no name ID. Rickey Cole is an idiot.

I think the democrats were originally going for Childers or Presley. But when neither would run, they were sent scrambling.

Childers was never going to run, Presley wasn't going to run either (at least in this cycle). I wish they could have convinced some state legislator to run, they would have likely gotten blown out but would at least have political experience.

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I'll say it again, Democrats totally deserve this for nominating awful candidates. They could have at least ran a mayor like Connie Moran or somebody like that. But instead they got behind a trial lawyer from Madison and got burned in the primary because she had no name ID. Rickey Cole is an idiot.

I think the democrats were originally going for Childers or Presley. But when neither would run, they were sent scrambling.

Childers was never going to run, Presley wasn't going to run either (at least in this cycle). I wish they could have convinced some state legislator to run, they would have likely gotten blown out but would at least have political experience.

Running for statewide office in Mississippi as an incumbent, Democratic state legislator is the same as retiring.  

Yep, that's why it is hard to convince state legislators to run. Especially with Bryant being a heavy favorite regardless. Slater was a bad candidate regardless.

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Well, it looks like Robert Gray isn't a raving lunatic, nor is he a Bible-thumping conservative.

Source?

https://www.periscope.tv/w/aJI0vTQ3MDkwMTV8NTQ1MDI0ODfoqZg1MzpxV5_Zw-9hpV1ViULJZHY-yhSE9ZH7flhWuw==

Seems like a nice guy, wants to expand Medicaid and fund education. Also supportive of changing flag.

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Looks like Brian Pearse beat Hunter Dawkins by 1 vote in HD121 Dem primary after a recount. Dawkins had a better shot at beating Carolyn Crawford in November.

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A few grasping-at-straws theories:

• His name being first on the ballot helped
• A lot of suburban Democrats (like me) voted in the Republican primary due to local races, costing Slater votes
• A lot of rural Republicans vote in Democratic primaries due to local races, and they may have just voted for the first name, or intentionally picked the generic/white-sounding man's name.
• Some voters may have heard a blurb about Democrats running a lesbian and somehow confused Pritchett with Slater/Short and therefore picked a man's name
• Slater and Short did have campaign signs, but they may have been almost entirely in the Jackson Metro, where most people voted Republican

Rickey Cole better resign over this. What a joke.

Let me address each of these theories.

1. Yes, especially when all 3 candidates had very low name ID (although I'm sure Rickey Cole thought Slater was a household name)
2. Yes, but who is to say those voters would have gone for Slater?
3. Maybe, but Gray did just as well in the rural white parts as he did in the rural black parts.
4. Highly doubt this had any effect. In fact, I don't think 10% of the Dem electorate know about Pritchett's sexual orientation, and if they did, it's unlikely that it affected their voting in the Gov primary.
5. This is a decent theory, as Gray did worst in the most urban areas in the state (Jackson Metro and the Gulf Coast). But the lesson here is that Slater should have made a better effort in the rural areas, where no one had any idea who she was. I will say that I did not see a Slater sign at my precinct in Hattiesburg.

I'm looking forward to seeing the precinct results.

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I find it interesting that just as many Democrats as Republicans voted in the Primary. Did it have something to do with the fact that there was no competitive race on the Republican side?

Local races. Rural conservatives vote Dem because of county offices being dominated by Dems. Liberals will vote GOP if their county is GOP dominated locally (which was the case with me yesterday). The turnout was very close to being equal this year. Usually Dems have much larger turnout.

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Gray will lose by a wider margin in November than Slater or Short would have, and that could matter in close legislative races.

I disagree. I think this will boost his name ID and may get a few people to vote for him who would have otherwise stayed home. Personally, I think he is a likable guy (much more so than Slater) and he'll also be able to play the "not a career politician" card well.

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I emailed the state party about a possible bumper sticker for the Gray campaign. Here is what I got back:

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And one question - will not Pearse be slightly better then Dawkins (probably - as liberal as his mother is) in Republican-leaning district? Again, IMHO, candidates must be tailor-made for their district - and this particular is unlikely to elect fiery liberal...

I don't think so. The Dawkins last name would help him, I'd guess. Deborah Dawkins may be liberal, but she keeps getting elected (3 times) so it doesn't appear to be that big of a deal to the voters.

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Here are my post-primary ratings. Only changed the ratings on a couple of races (but only changed the outcome of one). The one outcome that I did change was the Sojourner/Dearing matchup.

House: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1GQqfDaAOeviyYURK4LpFpGCr0WxyiUWFjXMxrZppfSQ/edit#gid=0

Senate: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1bzQrna6lzMbBQDkTjnQSWBRxscVeuj32KA2bOHh83Zc/edit#gid=0

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Here are my post-primary ratings. Only changed the ratings on a couple of races (but only changed the outcome of one). The one outcome that I did change was the Sojourner/Dearing matchup.

House: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1GQqfDaAOeviyYURK4LpFpGCr0WxyiUWFjXMxrZppfSQ/edit#gid=0

Senate: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1bzQrna6lzMbBQDkTjnQSWBRxscVeuj32KA2bOHh83Zc/edit#gid=0

I don't know much about the House races (there are so many of them!), but I think your Senate predictions look about right.

All of your "Likely ..." are probably Safe (especially Sampson Jackson, who is unopposed), although you be may using a very strict definition of "Safe"

Personally, I have very little faith in Eric Powell, a black Democrat, winning in a 90% white, 70% Romney district. I don't have any real knowledge of the race beyond the demographics, but I think white NE Mississippians went through a weird phase in 2007/2008 (also electing Travis Childers) and then snapped back to normal once Obama became president. I think Powell's victory there in 2007 is more likely to be lightning-in-a-bottle fluke rather than something he can repeat in 2015.

ETA: If you have Dawkins winning, it's still R+1 right?

Thanks for pointing out my mistake on Sampson Jackson, and yes it should be GOP +1 not +2.

I do think Powell will have a shot. He almost won in 2011 in a big GOP wave year, although yes it is crazy to me that a black Democrat can win in a 90% white district (and this district went BIG for the old flag in 2001). Powell is black, but he is somewhat conservative (endorsed Personhood).

What will be interesting to me is if he wins in November, and then the flag comes up for a vote in the Legislature. He, as a black Democrat in a very conservative 90% white district, will be put in a  tough spot.

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Also, yes a few of my "likely R" races could easily be "safe R" but didn't put them there just in case something bizarre happened.

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Who knows? Personhood did quite well in his district, so maybe he was pandering for votes.

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^ AFAIK - some Southern blacks are socially conservative (especially - from rural areas), so Personhood may be popular among them. Usually their ltypical left-of-center position on economy trumps that, but - nevertheless... And yes, Powell's surprise election was before Obama's election, which, IMHO, served (and continue to serve) as a very polarizing feature in many minds since 2008. We shall see.

True but blacks shot down Personhood by a large margin. In precincts that are almost 100% African American, Personhood only won about 15-20% of the vote. Harder to determine what % of whites voted for it as there was a clear urban-rural divide. There is a huge difference between a white precinct in Eastabuchie (if any of you can name which county this town is in, major props ) and a white precinct in Jackson.

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Jones. I will not pretend that i knew it absolutely for sure, but Jones was of 3 counties that came to my mind..

Correct. Well done.

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Hinds County precinct map of the Dem primary. Not the greatest quality, but this was one of the 2 counties where Slater won. I may do a NE Mississippi and Delta map when those results are released. Blue = Slater, Red = Gray, Gray (the color, not the last name) = tie.

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Our site is better than Alabama, but that ain't saying much because their site is putrid. And like Harry said, quite a few county precinct reports are missing. Looks like at least 12 counties aren't listed, I noticed Forrest, Oktibbeha, Lauderdale and Hinds were absent right off the bat. I expect those to show up eventually, but usually there are 1-2 county precinct sheets missing from each election cycle (I've always wanted to see 2008 Democratic primary results from Forrest County, but the SOS site doesn't seem to have it )

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Our site is better than Alabama, but that ain't saying much because their site is putrid. And like Harry said, quite a few county precinct reports are missing. Looks like at least 12 counties aren't listed, I noticed Forrest, Oktibbeha, Lauderdale and Hinds were absent right off the bat. I expect those to show up eventually, but usually there are 1-2 county precinct sheets missing from each election cycle (I've always wanted to see 2008 Democratic primary reults from Forrest County, but the SOS site doesn't seem to have it )

Have you checked the certified results?

They are not in the 2008 certified results. I am looking for precinct level results, not just county results (Obama won the primary with 60% in this county). I just emailed the circuit clerk and asked if they had what I was looking for.

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Not statewide election related, but Mississippi related. GOP polling. The Donald leading the pack in MS with 27%. Bush at 20%. (No Democratic polling, would be curious to see where the Bern stacks up with Hilldawg)

http://opinionsavvy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/MS-Pres-Prim-8.4.15.pdf

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GOP Southern Public Service Commissioner - Sam Britton over Tony Smith
GOP State House 24 - DeSoto County, so whoever is more conservative should win.
GOP State House - probably Karl Oliver
GOP State House 87 - Chris Johnson
DEM State House 27 - Open seat in VRA district, think LeRoy Lacy wins it
DEM State House 30 - Robert Huddleston
DEM State House 36 - probably Karl Gibbs
DEM State House 42 - Carl Mickens
DEM State House 70 - hopefully Sam Begley, this will be close.
GOP State Senate 18 - Jennifer Branning
GOP State Senate 47 - Could go either way, Pearl River County district so Tea Party friendly.
DEM State Senate 34 - Juan Barnett but Chinn could win if he racks up huge margins in Laurel and Hattiesburg precincts
DEM State Senate 38 - No clue.
DEM Central Transportation Commissioner - Mary Coleman

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This was taken near McComb. A grassroots campaign at its finest.

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With college football starting back in less than 2 weeks, thought I'd make a spreadsheet breaking down the MS Legislature by college. These are where legislators went for their undergraduate education, graduate and law degrees do not factor in. Note: the legislators listed are currently in office, although some may have lost their primary or are not running for re-election in 2015.

MS Legislature - House/Senate combined

Mississippi State - 32
Southern Miss - 26
Ole Miss - 19
Jackson State - 9
Alcorn State - 8
MS Valley State - 6
Tougaloo - 5
Delta State - 4
Memphis - 4
LSU - 3
Millsaps - 2

House

Mississippi State - 22
Southern Miss - 17
Ole Miss - 14
Alcorn State - 6
MS Valley State - 5
Tougaloo - 5
Jackson State - 4
Delta State - 4

Senate

Mississippi State - 11
Southern Miss - 9
Ole Miss - 5
Jackson State - 5
Alcorn State - 2
MS Valley State - 1

Full House list: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1z4zxmQl3DslWabRBQ7tS1Lr-XaFBtHOdsUteeL75VIM/edit?usp=sharing

Full Senate list: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VTa3i5oXJk4gR8fwXLOUngrWWQVpKDWqZ9L3YBbzZsc/edit?usp=sharing

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Yeah, turnout is going to be very low. Few people at my precinct when I voted.

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Glad Britton won. He's a good dude.