Timmy's States

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Because the Pubs control how the lines are drawn, or am I missing something? We seem to be shadow boxing here, which is not what we usually do with each other.

The missing factor is that Rio Grande is Dem-leaning and will likely have a Dem trifecta.
Just as Llano and Houston are certain R trifectas and Texas might be either a R trifecta or split control in the leg. (Biden won rump Texas so it's clearly more Dem than RL Texas is - is that enough to give Dems enough ability to stop an R gerrymander?)
I apologize if I had failed to make this more clear.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/32f3a605-67c7-47a1-9bc3-d6a92bf8cff8
Possible 2022 CDs for Houston and Rio Grande.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I see that I missed  the entire point of the thread, since I did not explore its genesis. Sorry to interrupt your regular programming with my obtuseness!

We all make mistakes. Please don't be too hard on yourself!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Educated guesses at who has what in 2021.

State legislatures


Governors

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Is there a reason why Latah County, Idaho is in Kootenai but not Benewah or Nez Perce? There is essentially no direct connection between anywhere in Latah County and most of the rest of the state.

I suspect that I had done that many years ago in order to make Kootenai more competitive while also having a respectable population. Kootenai was drawn partially to be a northern Rockies pure swing state. Presumably, in-universe, roads would be built to connect Latah with the rest of the state.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I just got the idea to do a US district court in line with this.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

90 district courts in the contigous US, just like in IRL.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

And here are the federal circuits.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

So, uh, what would state flags look like in Southern states ITTL?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

So, uh, what would state flags look like in Southern states ITTL?

Funny you dm’d over this as I actually have some background in flag design. The program I used to use doesn’t work anymore, but I’ll see if I can get anything done

Ah. Ok. Thank you.
I doubt that the two black-influence states in particular would really use post-Confederate imagery in its flags...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Carolina will probably have something of a roller coaster of sorts. R takeover in 2010, Ds take over Supreme Court sometime in 2010s (if they ever lost it), they strike down R maps, and then the state is Dem gerrymandered for most of the 2010s and through the present. Basically, a structurally more Dem version of NC.
Ds probably do have an unbroken streak in gubernatorial elections since at least 2004.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Clusters based off 2010 census results
My estimations of 2020 state legislative results based on, presumably, Dem gerrymandering that would occur here:

Carolina House
1 seater: 8-1 R
2 seater: 3-1 R
3 seater: 18-12 R
4 seater: 8-0 D
5 seater: 4-1 D
6 seater: 14-4 D
7 seater: 4-3 R
8 seater: 6-2 D
12 seater: 9-3 R
21 seater: 20-1 D
Total: 78D-44R

Carolina Senate:
1 seater: 2-2 tie
2 seater: 10-6 R
3 seater: 8-7 R
5 seater: 4-1 D
8 seater: 8-0 D
Total: 27-21 D

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Would anyone have interest in me resurrecting this?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Sure as long as you have new ideas.

What do you mean?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Sure as long as you have new ideas.

What do you mean?

As long as you have new maps to produce.

Ah ok.
Thanks for the clarification.
Anything you'd have interest in, in particular?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I've started off doing 2020 county clusters for Carolina. Will post today.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

My estimations of 2022 state legislative results based on, presumably, Dem gerrymandering that would occur here:

Carolina House:
1 seaters: 5-2 R
2 seaters: 5-3 D
3 seaters: 10-8 R
4 seaters: 6-2 R
5 seaters: 8-7 D
6 seaters: 13-11 R
7 seaters: 11-3 D
18 seaters: 17-1 D
Total: 74 D, 48 R

State Senate
1 seaters: 6-5 R
2 seaters: 6-4 D
3 seaters: 8-4 R
4 seaters: 5-3 D
7 seaters: 7-0 D
Total: 27 D, 21 R

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

> Dillon with Horry

hate

Dems would dominate Carolina's state government (basically imagine NC except it's persistently D+5 margin-wise). Florence County is R leaning but has multiple Dem voting rural counties neighboring it. Especially given trends in rural areas (which could make 2022 bad) it makes sense Ds would pair Florence with the county which gave Biden a 5k vote margin instead of one which gave him a 3k margin.
Even in this configuration the Florence SD went to Biden by barely 4 points, at most. Since the Senate is less D than the House it makes sense they would seek to ensure they had the lines they needed there.
You did catch an inadvertent error made in that region, as Horry's cluster is at 445k (20k below quota). I will have to rework things further. It's possible that Dillon is severed from Horry as Horry reaches into OTL NC to reach quota. We'll see.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Update: the issue within the Senate clusters was so easily solved I'm not even posting an updated map.
Changes:
Bladen moves from New Hanover cluster to Robeson cluster
Dillon moves from Horry cluster to Robeson cluster
Columbus moves from Robeson cluster to Horry cluster
As for Dillon being with Horry, I must gravely apologize for having mistook Marion for Dillon for some godforsaken reason. I could see if Dillon could go with Robeson on the House cluster but that's about it. NC clusters privilege the creation of single seat clusters...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

> Dillon with Horry

hate

Update: the area of Horry, Brunswick, New Hanover, Pender, Jackson, Dillon, Robeson, Columbus, and Bladen has 19 reps under the current cluster arrangement.
Presently that is divided into
Brunswick, New Hanover, Pender, Jackson (10)
Horry Dillon (6)
Robeson Columbus Bladen (3)
That can be arranged differently though...
Horry Brunswick (8)
New Hanover, Pender, Jackson, Bladen (8)
Dillon Robeson Columbus (3)

If you prefer I can do this instead.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

> Dillon with Horry

hate

Update: the area of Horry, Brunswick, New Hanover, Pender, Jackson, Dillon, Robeson, Columbus, and Bladen has 19 reps under the current cluster arrangement.
Presently that is divided into
Brunswick, New Hanover, Pender, Jackson (10)
Horry Dillon (6)
Robeson Columbus Bladen (3)
That can be arranged differently though...
Horry Brunswick (
New Hanover, Pender, Jackson, Bladen (
Dillon Robeson Columbus (3)

If you prefer I can do this instead.

It’s not a thing really, I’m just from the area and whenever I make maps in the state I go out of my way to put my home precinct in a d seat even when it doesn’t make sense

Oh ok. Understandable.
Would you like me to make the Dillon County state representative the State House Speaker?
(Thanks for helping me inadvertantly discover a mistake in my work anyway)

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Any convenient way to calculate area for these states?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

> Dillon with Horry

hate

Update: the area of Horry, Brunswick, New Hanover, Pender, Jackson, Dillon, Robeson, Columbus, and Bladen has 19 reps under the current cluster arrangement.
Presently that is divided into
Brunswick, New Hanover, Pender, Jackson (10)
Horry Dillon (6)
Robeson Columbus Bladen (3)
That can be arranged differently though...
Horry Brunswick (
New Hanover, Pender, Jackson, Bladen (
Dillon Robeson Columbus (3)

If you prefer I can do this instead.

It’s not a thing really, I’m just from the area and whenever I make maps in the state I go out of my way to put my home precinct in a d seat even when it doesn’t make sense

Oh ok. Understandable.
Would you like me to make the Dillon County state representative the State House Speaker?
(Thanks for helping me inadvertantly discover a mistake in my work anyway)

Sure why not

Consider it done.