The 100 States of America

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Incredible work. Let me know if you want me to make you any district maps.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Incredible work. Let me know if you want me to make you any district maps.

I'd be happy to see any you'd like to make!

LA-SEN 2014 would have been an extremely close Cassidy win in the Eastern part in a runoff where Dems basically gave up btw. Perhaps actual Dem investment could have gotten Landrieu over the top.

Oh, fascinating! I wasn't even thinking of that one, but you're right, she could have survived that year. Not sure what her chances would have been in 2020 though.

Any places you'd have particular interest in?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Is the House intentionally much bigger in this TL?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Is the House intentionally much bigger in this TL?

Yes, 800 seats total (although that includes DC and Puerto Rico's population).

I kind of wonder, what apportionment would look like if you kept 435 or had a number like 650. Though that's outside the scope of the main segment of this project in any case.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

House Seats (1963) 7
House Seats (2013) 7

VAP Demographics (2010) 69% White, 16% Black, 13% Hispanic

PVI 2008: R+42
PVI 2012: R+45
PVI 2016: R+47
PVI 2020: R+48

Congressional Representation: TX inherits the original state's Senate seats, and in fact might be the most natural place for both Cornyn and Cruz to run in (they're both from Houston but I doubt they'd do very well there). For the House, unless the VRA is interpreted to mandate a Black opportunity seat (which would be quite a challenge to draw - Tim, if you're so inclined feel free to try) it's an easy 7-0 Republican delegation.

Challenge accepted. I'll get to drawing when the other Western ones are done.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

My starting assumptions for the 2010s map I'm doing:
Texas: total R control
Dallas: total R control turning into split control by 2018 (which effectively means an R quasi-dummymander I guess; 2022 should see a 2003-style court map, overturned by a Dem trifecta which does a gerrymander)
Galveston: total R control with slim R control by 2018 (effectively a moderate R gerrymander aimed at locking in seats in the 2010s)
Alamo: total R control turning into D control by 2020 (so effectively R dummymander)
Rio Grande: total D control with R vote sink drawn to keep Rs from winning anything else (probably mostly successfully but not completely)
Llanos: obviously this is the best turf imaginable for a D trifecta to form!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Ok so I have made a map in DRA. Before posting, I'll count the number of McCain 08 (if it existed at the time), Abbott 14, Trump 16, Cruz 18, Trump 20, and Abbott 22 districts in each state.
Texas: 7, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7 (7)
Dallas: 13, 13, 10, 8, 8, 9 (16)
Galveston: 9, 9, 8, 7, 7, 8 (15)
Alamo: 8, 8, 8, 5, 5, 5 (11)
Rio Grande: 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1 (8)
Llanos: 6, 6, 6, 6, 6, 6 (6)

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/5973a5f1-95f0-4853-ad24-3a5bb54e442b
Here's the completed map
All the distinct sections of IRL TX are done in the same DRA map.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/5973a5f1-95f0-4853-ad24-3a5bb54e442b
Here's the completed map
All the distinct sections of IRL TX are done in the same DRA map.

Impressive work!! So PVI-wise we get:
- TX at 7R in 2008, no change by 2020
- DS at 3D-13R in 2008, becoming 6D-3S-7R by 2020 (wow!)
- GV at 5D-1S-9R in 2008, becoming 7D-1S-7R by 2020
- AM at 3D-1S-7R in 2008, becoming 3D-3S-5R by 2020 (not as much change, interesting)
- RG at 7D-1R, becoming 6D-1S-1R by 2020
- LN stays at 6R obviously

So Republicans in DS and GV made what looked like effective gerrymanders back in 2010 but were completely swamped by the trends, and even with new gerrymanders in 2020 they can only hope to preserve the seats they kept. In AM it looks like the Republican gerrymander is still working to some extent, so I think the 2020 redistricting should see Dems gain quite a few seats. In RG it will be interesting if Dems can shore up the areas they're losing ground in, or if they'll just accept a swingy district to shore up their other incumbents.

Galveston Rs weathered things rather well, with their line drawing saving seats like the Waller County seat. Rs are most screwed in Alamo where Ds likely gerrymander Rs into only 2 (at most 3) seats and completely shatter the cracking of Austin, replacing it with redrawn lines that split Austin up in ways that have it outvote the rurals. Dallas should be better for them because Ds have less ability to just gerrymander everything completely awfully for them since a lot of Dem votes are locked up in Dem VRA seats and Rs still have lots of votes to pull from places like NW Tarrant that can only be drowned out with difficulty. I don't see Rio Grande Dems changing much because it's better to minimize R safe seats as much as possible to the extent it doesn't hugely imperil their own incumbents. They probably go least change to try to maximize the value of incumbency for their sitting members (though the D congressional vote is clearly becoming less efficient over time). As for Llano and Texas, they are too Republican for Ds to be relevant in the districting process at all, and intra-party divisions will be more important (like cattle ranching vs cotton farming vs oil drilling for example).