Japan 2024: Tokyo Governor election with possible snap election

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Kishida cabinet approval/disapproval average curve is now below the critical 20%.  Good news for him is disapproval also fell a bit so there are some room to recover and get above 20% again.

Kishida is still probably kicking himself that he didn't go to the country back in May 2023.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What's the likelihood, atm, that factions will be abolished in the LDP?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Looks like all LDP factions will disband. Exception for now is the Aso faction. 

So I guess that for the sake of party harmony the solution was "faction abolition for all those who are willing".

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Kishida seems likely finished. RIP.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Given how close Nagasaki's 3rd was in 2021, it would not be surprising if the opposition gained the seat.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Who is most weakened if anti JCP consensus candidate loses? Who benefits overall (besides the JCP)?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The latest Asahi PR poll (change from May 2023)

LDP         21 (-15)
KP            5 (--)
DIY           1 (-1)
JRP          14 (-3)
DPP           5 (--)
ARFE         4 (new)  !!!
CDP         14 (+4)
RS            6 (+2)
SDP          1 (--)
JCP           5 (--)

LDP and JRP lose ground to both undecided and the Center-Left parties.  DPP splinter ARFE is at an amazing 4 which is very surprising for a minor and mostly regional new party.

That score might be enough for a Kansai PR block seat if replicated in a general election.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The latest Asahi PR poll (change from May 2023)

LDP         21 (-15)
KP            5 (--)
DIY           1 (-1)
JRP          14 (-3)
DPP           5 (--)
ARFE         4 (new)  !!!
CDP         14 (+4)
RS            6 (+2)
SDP          1 (--)
JCP           5 (--)

LDP and JRP lose ground to both undecided and the Center-Left parties.  DPP splinter ARFE is at an amazing 4 which is very surprising for a minor and mostly regional new party.

Does Seiji Maehara have much of a personal vote? Could explain why they're polling well.

He clearly has a personal vote.  Still I think polling at 4 which is similar to DPP's 5 is most likely and outlier.

On a sidenote, Seiji Maehara's name is kind of funny to me because the Japanese word for politics is also seiji (政治).

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Nikai faction leader 二階 俊博(Nikai Toshihiro) will retire and will not run in the next Lower House election.

He leaves big shoes.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Ouch ouch ouch.
If Shimane is cracking this badly...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I wouldn't look too deep into it. The CDP candidate has very very deep roots in the preferecture. Her great great grandfather was an Imperial Prince who was adopted as heir to the family of the last Daimyo of western Shimane. Her uncle was a maverick and an LDP faction leader who rebelled against Koizumi's postal privatization. Her father followed his brother and represented the other Shimane district until 2009!

Ah, postal rebels. That does make a lot of sense...
(Plus politics is unusually local in Japan)

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The most likely path forward now is for Kishida not to run for the LDP Prez race (just like Suga in 2021) and then the new LDP leader to call an early Lower House election right after the LDP Prez race.

So in sum this was a giant no confidence vote from the people, in Kishida himself.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Kishida might just pull the trigger for an early election after a reshuffle using the logic that things can only get worse from here.

That would be a bad idea and be putting his own interests ahead of the LDP.  Hopefully, he does not do that.

I hope he does, because I want to see the LDP lose power. I don't think he will, though. I think he's going to hold on as long as he can and hope for a miracle to come so he can call an election before September. I do kind of admire the sheer tenacity with which he's hung onto power.

Dude would have been best off if he simply called an election in 2023 when the polling looked better.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Well it seems Kishida has some good news finally...support rate isn't crashing.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Kishida's Golden Week trip to Brazil and France - Sankei
Kishida gave Macron a gift in form of something glass with Dragon Ball characters. This is a nod to Macron's comments after Akira Toriyama's death.
An use of soft power if I've ever seen it.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

New JX/Go2Senkyo poll is a doozy.

On the PR BLOC...

CDP 27.3 (+6.1)
LDP 17.8 (-5.3)
Ishin 12.2 (-0.

That’s not the PR bloc results. That’s the phone component of the survey (on the left) and internet component (on the right). Don’t know how they would weight each to reach an overall result though clearly a bad result for the LDP/strong for the CDP either way.

The discrepancy between phone and Internet respondents is crazy.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

LDP will not be running a candidate in Tokyo Gov election. Koike should easily cruise to a third term.

Smart decision.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The Okinawa prefecture election is this Sunday

Back in 2020 it was
             
                 Seats     Vote share
LDP+            19           36.50%
KP                 2             6.04%
JRP                2             3.93%
Center-Left   18            41.64%
JCP                7            11.89%

The anti-base Center-Left-JCP alliance has had a majority since 2008.  This time KP will contest 4 seats which could push the anti-base Center-Left-JCP alliance majority mark despite the unpopularity of the national LDP mark since Okinawa is trending LDP at the local level.  I expect at 24-24 split between Center-Left-JCP alliance and everyone else (LDP+ KP JRP).  Note that KP and JRP are mostly neutral on the base issue.

I was shocked to see just how high the Komeito PR vote was. More than 1 in 5 Okinawa voters...
How do these people vote on prefectural level?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The Okinawa prefecture election is this Sunday

Back in 2020 it was
             
                 Seats     Vote share
LDP+            19           36.50%
KP                 2             6.04%
JRP                2             3.93%
Center-Left   18            41.64%
JCP                7            11.89%

The anti-base Center-Left-JCP alliance has had a majority since 2008.  This time KP will contest 4 seats which could push the anti-base Center-Left-JCP alliance majority mark despite the unpopularity of the national LDP mark since Okinawa is trending LDP at the local level.  I expect at 24-24 split between Center-Left-JCP alliance and everyone else (LDP+ KP JRP).  Note that KP and JRP are mostly neutral on the base issue.

I was shocked to see just how high the Komeito PR vote was. More than 1 in 5 Okinawa voters...
How do these people vote on prefectural level?

This is part of the trend of KP becoming a more Southern rural party.  In the past KP was more of an urban lower middle class party.  It is now becoming more of a rural party.

I was very confused when KP only ran 2 candidates in the Okinawa prefecture elections in 2020 when in 2016 and before they ran and won 4 seats.  This time they are going back to 4 seats again.  In 2020 they must have had internal polling showing they might not win all 4 seats so they moved their candidate count to 2.

Hmm.
Their long-term growth in the South suggests them running 4 might become more likely in the future.