2016 House Ratings: Nowhere But Up From Here

[Nyvin]

In the unlikely event of a Cooper retirement, TN-5 could become somewhat interesting.  It's an interesting district demographically in that it is mostly Nashville (a big city, but not quite as crazy liberal as other big cities) but has some pockets of suburbs.  It is rated D+5 and has one of the last blue dogs in right now.  If he happens to retire in a Republican wave year, I would think that there would be a chance of that seat flipping.

I really doubt it.   The Republicans haven't really competed in the district since the 70's.   The reason it's D+5 is because the Democratic candidate for president is seen too left wing for Nashville by "some" and they switch parties,  the dem House candidate for the seat regularly pulls in 65%+ of the vote.  

Also it's one of the few areas in TN that both the African American and Hispanic populations are rising quite a bit, and also the college population there is increasing too.   If anything it's going to become more of a mainstream Dem seat in the future, at least until redistricting.  

If the GOP added the very conservative Williamson county to the south to the district and took away parts of Davidson they could gerrymander the district to be red.  The only way to accomplish this would be county splitting though and I think TN has some statue against that.

[Nyvin]

In the unlikely event of a Cooper retirement, TN-5 could become somewhat interesting.  It's an interesting district demographically in that it is mostly Nashville (a big city, but not quite as crazy liberal as other big cities) but has some pockets of suburbs.  It is rated D+5 and has one of the last blue dogs in right now.  If he happens to retire in a Republican wave year, I would think that there would be a chance of that seat flipping.

I really doubt it.   The Republicans haven't really competed in the district since the 70's.   The reason it's D+5 is because the Democratic candidate for president is seen too left wing for Nashville by "some" and they switch parties,  the dem House candidate for the seat regularly pulls in 65%+ of the vote.  

Also it's one of the few areas in TN that both the African American and Hispanic populations are rising quite a bit, and also the college population there is increasing too.   If anything it's going to become more of a mainstream Dem seat in the future, at least until redistricting.  

If the GOP added the very conservative Williamson county to the south to the district and took away parts of Davidson they could gerrymander the district to be red.  The only way to accomplish this would be county splitting though and I think TN has some statue against that.

Actually, Shelby County (Memphis and suburbs) is split, with urban Memphis comprising the 9th (D+some huge number) and the rest of the county in the 7th (R+some huge number).  Shelby County as a whole is quite competitive and voted for both Governor Haslam and Senator Alexander this time around (Davidson even voted for Haslam).  The 5th is the only district in Tennessee with an at all competitive PVI.  Now, I do think that Tennessee might be pretty easy to gerrymander into 9 safely Republican districts, but lawmakers were probably worried about protecting the other 7 before they were quite as far right as they are now.

That's because Shelby county alone has a larger population than what a congressional district is allowed.    It has to be split.   The statute is to avoid splitting "when possible" probably, although I've never read the text.   I know Michigan does something similar.

TN-5 could be gerrymandered quite easily if you could split up Davidson co, if Davidson remains in 1 district it will most likely stay blue.

TN-9 would be borderline impossible to Gerrymander red while leaving the surrounding districts red.   Even NC style districts couldn't make that happen.  

[Nyvin]

Alright. Update. Will provide a text version if you so wish.

Your map seems a bit more Dem friendly than the conventional wisdom. I would think the Pubs have an edge in NY-24 due to the quality of the incumbent, and an edge it that Cuban south Florida seat, and MI-01 probably just because the seat has a Pub lean with a Pub incumbent (although not as strong as in AZ-02 and NY-24). Arguably also in PA-08, although that is debatable, due to a deeper bench and Bucks trending a bit to the Pubs. The Heck seat probably should be moved to tilt Pub now. And is NY-24 really that much in play? Ditto that south Illinois seat, also trending Pub, and with a high profile incumbent. But it is all very early, and most are assuming that no party has a tailwind behind them in 2016.

What's special about John Katko?   He's a first term House incumbent with no prior elected offices.    He's not particularly impressive.    The District is D+5 also.

[Nyvin]

Alright. Update. Will provide a text version if you so wish.

Your map seems a bit more Dem friendly than the conventional wisdom. I would think the Pubs have an edge in NY-24 due to the quality of the incumbent, and an edge it that Cuban south Florida seat, and MI-01 probably just because the seat has a Pub lean with a Pub incumbent (although not as strong as in AZ-02 and NY-24). Arguably also in PA-08, although that is debatable, due to a deeper bench and Bucks trending a bit to the Pubs. The Heck seat probably should be moved to tilt Pub now. And is NY-24 really that much in play? Ditto that south Illinois seat, also trending Pub, and with a high profile incumbent. But it is all very early, and most are assuming that no party has a tailwind behind them in 2016.

What's special about John Katko?   He's a first term House incumbent with no prior elected offices.    He's not particularly impressive.    The District is D+5 also.

Knocking out an incumbent by 20 points in a D+5 is pretty impressive to me, even in a wave year. If it had been by 5 or even 10 points, I may agree with you.

Katko received less votes than Buerkle in 2012,  it was just Maffei's support utterly collapsing that made him win by such a big margin.    Maffei lost a full 62,740 votes from 2012 to 2014.   

[Nyvin]

This might have to be updated for the Florida redistricting soon!