Bold Predictions for the Next Few Cycles

[Nyvin]

George W. Bush is beyond any question a very poor President. His only real success was in getting re-elected (probably by riding cultural trends more than any real achievement). 9/11 made him popular for doing much of what was obvious... but a really-great President would have asked for Americans to make some sacrifices to thwart the evil that was the 9/11 attack. "Go shopping" is not my idea of a noble sacrifice.

His stewardship of the economy was an unmitigated disaster. He pushed private debt for consumer spending that financed more the growth of the Chinese economy than the American economy. He sponsored a binge in real estate speculation that squeezed out investment in plant and equipment that creates well-paying jobs that finance healthy home-buying, small-business formation, and consumer spending.  

He lied to get America into a war for his cronies, and that war broke open the budget.  His loose watch over the Armed Forces tolerated gross misconduct that none can excuse. He bungled the response to a natural disaster, something unprecedented in American history. He was President as the worst economic meltdown in nearly eighty years began, and it led to the biggest increase in government ownership of economic assets ever -- 'receivership socialism'. For a loud proponent of free-market solutions, this 'receivership socialism' utterly discredits him. He had a Hoover economy and an LBJ war -- two catastrophic failures at once.  

The testimony to his failure is that Barack Obama is his successor, and practically an antithesis.  

This is not a partisan swipe. Several Republicans would have been better prepared for the Presidency and would have been firmer conservatives in economic policy. 

I have to agree,  calling Bush 43 an "average president" is such a gross exaggeration that you'd have to be thinking all the other presidents were a good 2-3 tiers lower than what they really are.

[Nyvin]

2016 - Democrats take back the Senate, winning NH, PA, OH, IL, WI, NC, FL, MO, maybe IA if Grassley dies or retires or something.  

Hillary wins the Presidency with a large Electoral College margin, solidifying the theory that the GOP is becoming uncompetitive for the White House.   Hopefully Breyer and Ginsburg retire in 2017 or 2018.    

Hillary makes for a better fit with the public for Democrats to win seats in the House.  Losing votes in city centers but making big gains in smaller towns and suburbs, basically spreading the Democrat vote out geographically, which I think is the primary problem the Democrats face in the House elections

2018 - the Democrats almost inevitably will face loses in the Senate, maybe losing the majority.    The good part though is a lot of governor races will become competitive and the Democrats might make real good gains there similar to how the GOP did in 1986.    That will make it much easier on them for redistricting in 2020.  

2020 - Who the heck knows,  I'd be slightly willing to bet Hillary wins reelection though, barring some crazy unforeseen events.

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That's still only a 289 - 249 EC win....hardly what I'd call a "comfortable victory"

[Nyvin]

That year, Mitt Romney ran for president, and was a disappointment.

Nah, Romney didn't have to do anything with that. Republicans could have won MT, ND, MO and IN easily (Romney won those states), but they didn't because they proved once again how stupid they are. Same could happen to the Dems in 2016. 

IN wouldn't have been a pickup.   

[Nyvin]

Hillary "deciding" to only serve one term seems to be a common mention in this thread, anyone care to explain why?