Likelihood to win the nomination (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
June 07, 2024, 03:25:39 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential Election
  Likelihood to win the nomination (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Likelihood to win the nomination  (Read 13077 times)
100% pro-life no matter what
ExtremeRepublican
Moderators
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,788


Political Matrix
E: 7.35, S: 5.57


« on: February 08, 2016, 12:01:00 AM »

50% Rubio
35% Cruz
10% Bush
3% Trump
2% Other

The Trump clowns are amusing

95% Clinton
2.5% Sanders
2.5% Other
Logged
100% pro-life no matter what
ExtremeRepublican
Moderators
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,788


Political Matrix
E: 7.35, S: 5.57


« Reply #1 on: February 21, 2016, 09:21:00 PM »

Rubio 60
Trump 25
Cruz 10
Other 5 (likely Romney or Ryan)

Clinton 98
Sanders 1
Other 1
Logged
100% pro-life no matter what
ExtremeRepublican
Moderators
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,788


Political Matrix
E: 7.35, S: 5.57


« Reply #2 on: February 24, 2016, 05:30:43 PM »

Post Nevada:

Rubio- 55%
Trump- 30%
Ryan/Other- 10%
Cruz- 5%
Logged
100% pro-life no matter what
ExtremeRepublican
Moderators
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,788


Political Matrix
E: 7.35, S: 5.57


« Reply #3 on: February 27, 2016, 08:54:47 PM »

Trump- 60%
Rubio- 35%
Other- 5%

Clinton- 99.7%
Biden/Craziness- 0.2%
Sanders- 0.1%
Logged
100% pro-life no matter what
ExtremeRepublican
Moderators
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,788


Political Matrix
E: 7.35, S: 5.57


« Reply #4 on: March 06, 2016, 06:24:06 PM »

60% Brokered Convention
20% Trump
15% Cruz
5% Rubio

Note that one of those could also be nominated at a brokered convention.
Logged
100% pro-life no matter what
ExtremeRepublican
Moderators
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,788


Political Matrix
E: 7.35, S: 5.57


« Reply #5 on: March 20, 2016, 05:12:26 PM »

Democratic nomination
Clinton: 98%
Sanders: 1%
Other: 1%

Republican nomination
Outright Nomination: 25%
Contested Convention: 75%

Trump: 45%
Cruz: 30%
Kasich: 5%
Field: 20%
Logged
100% pro-life no matter what
ExtremeRepublican
Moderators
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,788


Political Matrix
E: 7.35, S: 5.57


« Reply #6 on: April 05, 2016, 11:10:10 PM »

Democratic nomination
Clinton: 98%
Sanders: 1%
Other: 1%

Republican nomination
Outright Nomination: 25%
Contested Convention: 75%

Trump: 45%
Cruz: 30%
Kasich: 5%
Field: 20%

I just want to note that I have pretty much throughout the primary season taken the position that Trump would likely not be the nominee.

Republicans-
Outright nomination (10%):
Trump- 99%
Cruz- 1%

Contested convention (90%):
Cruz- 50%
Ryan- 30%
Trump- 10%
Kasich- 5%
Other- 5%

Overall:
Cruz: 45%
Ryan: 27%
Trump: 19%
Kasich: 4.5%
Other: 4.5%

Democrats:
Clinton: 97%
Sanders: 2%
Other: 1%
Logged
100% pro-life no matter what
ExtremeRepublican
Moderators
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,788


Political Matrix
E: 7.35, S: 5.57


« Reply #7 on: April 20, 2016, 12:10:24 AM »

Democratic nomination
Clinton: 98%
Sanders: 1%
Other: 1%

Republican nomination
Outright Nomination: 25%
Contested Convention: 75%

Trump: 45%
Cruz: 30%
Kasich: 5%
Field: 20%

I just want to note that I have pretty much throughout the primary season taken the position that Trump would likely not be the nominee.

Republicans-
Outright nomination (10%):
Trump- 99%
Cruz- 1%

Contested convention (90%):
Cruz- 50%
Ryan- 30%
Trump- 10%
Kasich- 5%
Other- 5%

Overall:
Cruz: 45%
Ryan: 27%
Trump: 19%
Kasich: 4.5%
Other: 4.5%

Democrats:
Clinton: 97%
Sanders: 2%
Other: 1%

I was probably a little too optimistic right after Wisconsin.

Republicans-
Outright nomination (25%):
Trump- 100% (this includes the possibility of Trump winning on the first ballot despite not going in with 1237 pledged delegates)

Contested convention (75%):
Cruz- 65%
Trump- 15%
Other- 15%
Kasich- 5%

Overall:
Cruz: 49%
Trump: 36%
Other: 11%
Kasich: 4%


Democrats:
Clinton: 99%
Other: 1%
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.022 seconds with 13 queries.