538 Model Megathread

[100% pro-life no matter what]

There is a cool little chart in an article of what a hypothetical Trump victory map would look like of the chances of Trump winning certain states, given that he won another.

For example, using Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan:

If Trump wins Ohio:
-A 56% chance to win Pennsylvania
-A 48% chance to win Michigan

If Trump wins Michigan:
-A >99% chance to win Ohio
-A 61% chance to win Pennsylvania

If Trump wins Pennsylvania:
-A 97% chance to win Ohio
-A 51% chance to win Michigan

Another one: If Trump wins Minnesota or Wisconsin, there is a 72% chance that he is also carrying the other one.

Some aren't that coorelated.  For example, winning Nevada does nothing for him winning Virginia (only a 40% chance), apart from doing better nationally.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/if-trump-wins-heres-how-the-map-might-look/

[100% pro-life no matter what]

538 adds the Quinnipiac polls, adjusts them up in Clinton's favour and Trump's chances bounce up. He's up from 13.7 to 16.9 on the now cast over the course of the day. I find that unusual.

I think their logic was that these polls confirm that IA and NC are within range if Trump surges nationally (the only way he will win) before November 8.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Trump is over 20 in polls-plus for the first time since October  11th!  Also, all three models now project him to make this a closer EC race than 2012.

Actually, he appears to be not that far from getting this back to the new 272 freiwal, but he needs to find a way to come back in one of WI/PA/CO/NH (all between 15 and 20% right now, with Michigan and Minnesota just below 15).

[100% pro-life no matter what]

One more good poll could put Trump above 25 in polls-plus and the nowcast (he is at 24.2 in both).

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Florida flips to Trump in polls plus

[100% pro-life no matter what]

While we're comparing the two, I'll admit that I'm a tad shocked that Wang's model hasn't back off at all. Still 97 random/99 Bayesian, as it was a week ago. I thought it might revert a bit, but not so far.

Wang's model has insanely small confidence levels.  Didn't he have the Dems as like 90% favorites to maintain the Senate for most of 2014, but flipped it a few days before the elections?

[100% pro-life no matter what]

ME-02 flips back to Trump in all three models.  In polls-plus and nowcast, he is nearing having every state in the 266 back in his column.  His chances are nearing 30 in his best freiwal states (Colorado and New Hampshire), and in the 20s in several more.  A good PA or WI poll today would do wonders.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Nevada flips in the nowcast, as Trump passes 70% in Iowa, his first Obama state at that level.  For TNVol's sake, New Hampshire is now more competitive than Iowa.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Clinton's 99.9th Percentile:

Clinton's 99th Percentile:

Clinton's 95th Percentile:

Clinton's 90th Percentile:

Clinton's 75th Percentile:

Clinton's 67th Percentile:

The 50th Percentile:

Trump's 67th Percentile (a narrow Trump win):

Trump's 80th Percentile:

Trump's 90th Percentile:

Trump's 95th Percentile:

Trump's 99th Percentile:

Trump's 99.9th Percentile:

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Somehow, a Clinton +18 VA poll helped Trump's chances (combined with a T+6 UT poll).  I guess they view Virginia as gone and say that that means Clinton is wasting a ton of her popular vote there? 

[100% pro-life no matter what]

RIP Nate Silver

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.theonion.com/article/nate-silver-gunned-down-attempting-cross-mexican-b-54595

Sad News from Texas

Where did the LA Times poll go?

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I think Nate should let his model run through election night, changing each state's chances to 100% as the calls come in. It would be great to watch the probabilities over the course of the night like ESPN does for football games.

He did that during the midterms.  It also adjusted other states when calls were made as it became apparent that there was a pro-Republican sentiment that the polls didn't capture.